meanwhile cold air and snow in south Eastern Europe.

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The typical easing of colder 850s is underway in earnest as the projected whiff of a NWly next week becomes a brief waft.
It really is a bleak outlook at the moment for anyone looking for a ‘winter’.
At least we’ve got a few weak fronts to look forward to 😉

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When I saw you had posted when I logged on, my excitement built. Alas, nothing to see here. 

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 WX summary shows temp distribution virtually static over the next two weeks, with virtually all of Europe away from the Med having above average temps. Pptn mainly in N Atlantic, a bit over C Europe week 1 and E Med week2, but very dry for SW Europe incl UK except extreme NW

Jet -  Some activity around the N/NE of the UK this weekend otherwise the jet runs out of steam in mid-Atlantic. 

GFS - HP continues over or close to the UK, until Wed 2nd tending to be to the SW with W/NW winds, then to the SE with S/SW-lies and troughs closer to Ireland from Tue 8th. Meanwhile the 552dam line clears N Scotland  but dips relentlessly S to Greece and Turkey.

GEFS - ens members agree on temp approaching seasonal norm to Tue 1st (fairly steady in the S, more up and down in Scotland with a cold day or two ca 30th Jan); the mean then stays near norm but with wide variation between members, op & control amongst the mildest. A little rain in some runs from the 1st in the SE, rather more in the far NW.

ECM - similar though the W/NW-lies referred to are stronger

 

Plenty to amuse the cherry-pickers delving into the postage stamps in FI e.g. P29 produces  ice days for all the 2nd week of February 

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It really says it all when I find that the last frame of the ECM this morning is probably the most interesting on that model (for UK cold potential) that I have seen so far this year.

problem is not massively different from GFS at same time just holding up better against Atlantic. Hoping ECM has it correct as it is getting later for a decent cold spell.

Sunday has a small amount of interest about it for Northerners... ECM has ideas... other models not far behind

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Sums up winter when you see the outer reaches of GFS and you look how marginal the snow chances are on a low that doesn’t slide far enough south!

Control goes into Feb 91 mode

 

I'm 50 on Sunday  

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Ask Boris for ideas on appropriate celebrations….

Happy birthday.  It’s only a number, remember. Until it gets too large to ignore…

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The control plus at least two of the ensemble suite also build a Scandi high (21 & 24) but not a lot of support for that. But the signal appears to be for coolish conditions to persist.

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was hoping for more support as ECM hints at this scenario, see if it becomes a trend over next few days

Happy Birthay for Sunday, hope you get to celebrate this milestone in style 

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How many snowy birthdays can you remember then?

Have a great day anyway whatever the weather!

That falling cluster (850s) on the 0600 GEFS along with the ECM this morning plus the amplitude that has been indicated by the later frames of a fair few GFS runs in the last 72 hrs does give my eyebrows a teeny weeny bit of inclination.  Hope springs eternal-😁

Yes, Happy Birthday. I think you're probably allowed a Work Meeting to celebrate :-)

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At a guess this op run should be better for first week of Feb

not sure what to make of FI. on one hand theyre very different to what we currently have - maybe more unsettled? on the other hand, still o realy wintryness to speak of - bar the odd clip of cold air

no doubt we will be starved of HP in the coming months and will look back at this January with envious eyes

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Forget* mountain torque, SSWs, ENSO et al. This is a far more useful piece of data to start from: 

 

"A picture is worth a thousand words" or in this case a graph. It shows the warming trend in recent years with ONLY 21 out of the last 120 months having a Central England Temperature (CET) below the 1961-90 average. Essential data for anyone issuing a long range forecast! https://t.co/FL7qG8jNFO

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) January 25, 2022

* Well don't forget them, but don't overlook the basics which are far more telling!

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Extrapolating, there are likely to be none at all below the 1961-90 average in the decade from 2041-2050.

A sobering slap in the face about what’s ahead.

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All I can say Asia, Scandinavia and Americas have all experienced heavy snowfalls and record cold and in the UK I have not seen a snow flurry. At least I can enjoy watching Greek and Turks enjoy snow.

We have been locked into this boring patern since the summer although there were a few excpetions to these broing grey skies have continued throughout winter and not looking to change any time soon. At some point I would suspect this will change and I just hope we will not have to endure another poor summer.

As to what happens between 2041 - 2050 is anybodies guess.

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It didn't take long ( one run ) for the strat forecast to drop the idea of split. I have seen this happen before and then the warming and split appears at an earlier time frame a few days later. I am far from confident though that this will happen. 

It is hard to believe that you can go through nearly two months of winter and not even see a decent northerly toppler or any synoptics that are capable of dropping -5c  850 temps down to the south coast. Roll on the collapse of the Beaufort gyre and perhaps then we may see a half decent cold spell. 

The wait goes on. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Depressing for us coldies, but the evidence was there from the 90s - comparing stats and obs from my parents and grand-parents, but the Ostriches and the deniers - (how much were they paid by Saudi Arabia and Russia), and the disrupters, (as per the film “The Trick”) served to distract the worlds nations politicians and policy makers from acting on the inconvenient truth. The cost to us is the prospect of drought, biodiversity crisis, children who never grow up to know the beauty and magic of a snow day, snow balls, snow men or a white Christmas. That is a major cultural shift and massive loss of what makes up a part of our culture, history and Britishness. We pin our hopes now on the Gulf Stream shut down, just to take us back to the 90s for a decade.

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January 2011 to Dec. 2021, eh? A pity the cut-off point isn't one month earlier. Because that was "a sobering slap in the face" if there ever was one.

 ... it was the second-coldest December in the narrower Central England Temperature (CET) record series which began in 1659, falling 0.1 °C short of the all-time record set in 1890.[1] Although data has never officially been compiled, December 2010 is thought to be colder than December 1890 over the United Kingdom as a whole, as Scotland was up to 2 °C warmer than England. Hence, it is thought to be the coldest December across the UK as a whole since before 1659.[2]

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