My feeling is that for a better chance of a protracted cold spell later on in February which now appears to be the best shout, then it is better to see higher pressure going forward.  That's not based on any theory, its a just hunch based on experience. 

Well the op shows changes again later on but for the south in Feb to get cold it needs to come from a cold pool in the east. See how it ends up.

Models finally starting to look like run of the mill chrts for winter... bit of fun off in the distance, some things to discuss... how ive missed this ordinaryness.

who knows - we might even see some wintry weather before April

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If DoctorMog had stuck around for the rest of July, he would have been begging to get back to Aberdeen 

Ireland suffered its longest consecutive run of > 28c degree days on record, with incredibly high dew points - made worse by the sheer lack of even the slightest breeze -  similar to what you describe above, and Tyrone in SW NI was amongst the real hotspots on the island. Never again do I want to experience its like again. 

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There are plenty of examples from admittedly a colder epoch where northerly sourced airflows have delivered as late as April.  Eg April 4 1968 and April 26 1981 to mention a few.  I am sure if it could deliver in April in those times it can deliver now in February.  It's just the same as airflows from any particular direction in that extremity of temperatures is dependent on the temperature at source at the given moment in time.

 

 

It's hard to discern much from this thread at times, because of unstated IMBYism. Reading the majority of posts over the past day or so gives a negative perspective, and I can see many dismissing chances of cold and snow full stop.

But then looking at the models, there are charts like this, on the margin of the reliable timeframe:

 

Sure, it's unexciting for the SE/S, but it would feed in snow showers into Scotland, then into the north of England and Midlands.

This isn't having a go at anyone; we're all focused on our own areas, and in some set-ups, the benefit can be very regional. It's actually pretty rare for, say the SE corner plus NW England plus Scotland to all be under cold and potentially snowy set-ups.

 

 

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Perhaps finally we will have a proper zonal month in February, although I remember January looked like it would be a very zonal month at the start and that only lasted about 5 days before that high cropped up and never left.

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Agreed. That chart is an example of why I said we’re heading for a period of changeable weather, possibly stormy,with the chance of extended cold snaps. In these situations it will be the usual areas that are most favoured, ie the further north and the higher the ground the greater the chance of wintriness. 

What I don’t really see is any sustained easterly, simply because of the strength of the jet stream and the strong polar vortex. The odd ensemble run delivers high pressure toppling into Scandi before being pushed aside.

 

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Agree with the bolded bit. We(well, I do at least)often forget about the range of conditions that we can see across the British Isles. Last night there were stormy conditions in the Northern Isles and Northern Scotland yet barely a puff of wind at my location and(presumably) over most of England.

I would add that you can't entirely rule out anywhere seeing snow in these airstreams. Yes, the areas you mention are obviously favourites for snow but there's always the possibility of troughs being embedded in these flows which could bring wintry precipitation more widely. These scenarios are certainly a big improvement on the current set up.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=dublin&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

Definitely hints of something building in the semi reliable, albeit relatively short lived.

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Very quiet in here this evening?

The GFS 12z ensembles are signalling a cold weekend on 5th/6th and the ECM 12z op has 500-1,000 hPa thickness values in the low 520s across the entire country with. 850hPa values of -5c to -7c south to north (with a -7c patch over Wales).

Even the mean chart has 850s from -4c to -6c.

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for the southern contingent that will simply mean an average day with a cold wind - possibly why it’s quiet. Those further north in Scotland might be a bit more interesting 

Yes, exactly that. Few are going to get excited about a couple of days of below average temperatures at the start of February.

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Probably depends on where the few are located

IMBY it's unlikely to be 'interesting' although a bright and breezy NW flow isn't a bad thing at this time of year. For high ground North Wales and up the potential for some transient snowfall looks pretty good in an 'interesting' set up, particularly as the pattern looks to repeat a few times during the run.

Add the occasional disturbance in to the flow (ala the T384 12z GFS chart this time, but there's been other examples less far out) and the interest may increase as areas away from favoured spots could see a bit of snow falling.

Snow potential for some aside there's also, as has been mentioned a few times, the possibility of some strong winds at times probably aided by the HP never being far away and the isobars tightening as the LPs run past it. 

Not sure I can excited about the projected pattern but it's not without interest generally, even if MBY is likely to miss most of that.

 

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Not with such low 500-1,000 thickness values.  Anything coming down ought to have a wintry element despite the modified lower layer.

The problem is that not much precipitation gets across to the east/south east unless disturbances arise.

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Agreed. It's quite marginal so a little milder and it may just bring cold rain. But marginal also means that a small improvement could bring snow. I wouldn't worry about the lack of disturbances - much too far out for that sort of detail. We've got possibilities which makes a change. 

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Peter, I am interested - and the GFS Pub Run op shows snow IMBY, as it has so many times before this winter, but its a mirage and when you get nearer - it disappears. This year is an unexpected snow desert. The stars were aligned and we are reaching the time territory that the easterly orientated La Niña should be delivering a jet stream aligned to delivering cold to the UK, so I am more interested by this, than perhaps the previous scenarios, but after crying wolf so many times this year, its harder to get enthused until this same event is T60. `hope burns alive, but the flame is low right now.

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Pretty picture by the way. That would be living the dream. Let’s hope it is not just that - a dream.

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Hi.  I’m certainly not saying it will happen; at this range, as you say, that would be unwise.  But there has been, I think, a marked trend towards more unsettled conditions, edging towards ‘cold zonality’.  From there it’s a small step to brief northerly incursions, as tonight’s 18z demonstrates in its outer reaches.

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I agree - there does seem to be a trend. Unusual it is to look forward to a break in a high pressure blocking pattern, but we were getting nowhere with that languid visit from “Auntie Azores-High” as she has affectionately been named before, with the northern jet being so stubborn and strong. The shift to a more amplified jet pattern seems to have shifted our not so favourite Aunt back to her homeland, and yes - the trend seems to be for a shallow amplification to get more amplified with time, and this is another piece in that jigsaw. I do hope you are right and we shall finally see Feb deliver a back end Boris Party for us coldies, and a day to two (at least of proper daytime frost and snow). The increased SSTs certainly seems to skew the coldest trough of the winter to about now, due to an even greater thermal lag. So - if it is going to happen - then the next 3 weeks would be ideal timing. I’m watching if not always posting...

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WX summary temps still stuck with only moderately cold air of Europe, week 1 temps mostly above seasonal norm, much above near Caspian Sea, hint of something a bit colder from the N in week 2. Rain currently in NW Atlantic tending to spread S-wards down coastal countries.

Jet in fits and starts near Scotland

GFS Op 0z - HP still hanging around the SW approaches with UK experiencing W-lies or NW-lies, exceptions Sat 5th when brief N-ly plunge enough to generate a small intense LP 995 mb in Biscay lasting 48 hours; and something rather more N-ly than NW-ly just missing the E coast Thu 10th

GEFS - mean mostly near average with dips to cooler Tue 1st and the two dates above; minimal rain in E grading to frequent in NW and mostly into February anyway

ECM - like GFS though the LP around the 5th develops more deeply at first N of Scotland with troughs crossing UK but in the end not developing the extended N-ly

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00z run - This is really turning out the be a winter that never was to be. Those colder GFS ensembles giving us colder zonality have now backed off in latter stages of the models and any cold incursion would be transient if any and restricted to Scotland but that's even if it materialises. But at this rate it probably wont!

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Let's hope that that trend reverses. However, it has been a continual feature of this winter with jam tomorrow never becoming jam today.

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I doubt if anyone will ever forecast a cold winter again in the UK unless there is support from the seasonal models. Utterly extraordinary how things have panned out. 

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Let's be honest about things. Even the jam on offer has been full of additives and of the budget variety.

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As far as I can see the broadscale pattern remains unchanged today, namely a zonal flow bringing 2-3 day interludes of colder air on a west or north westerly flow, with transient snow opportunities as times for favoured areas*. Ongoing possibility of little features popping up during any projected colder blips, which may bring snow to other areas although very much on a temporary basis. There's always going to be uncertainty on timing and LP development in this kind of set up which brings small changes to the pattern, along with the positioning of the HP to our West - closer to us cuts the colder flows off more quickly and may allow milder air to affect us more, further away may allow for longer colder blips etc. 

The 00z GFS showed this, the 6z Op is showing this, I'd be happy to bet the 6z ens will too 

*Hopefully a good set up for the Scottish ski centres as Scotland will have fewer and shorter mild incursions and more precip than areas further South!

 

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