I know - tell me about it., I really can't stress how disappointing it is! I mean what is there memorable about this winter? anyone? even with the High pressure we never saw ice days  - perhaps the only noteworthy was how mild and warm it was on NYE/NYD. There was a 'flicker of light at the end of the tunnel' in the models up until the 22nd/23rd December 2021 when we could have seen a cold and snowy Xmas and Boxing day with easterly - but that flicker of light at the end of the tunnel turned out to be a train! 

Perhaps there was storm Arwen which brought early wet snow to many parts esp the NE albeit transient wet snow but this was in Autumn at end of November - I am quite amazed at how we can go through almost 8 weeks of weather with absolutely nothing noteworthy or of any interest (even from a stormy perspective) to talk about and discuss.

There has been the occasional tease in models but that's it really.

Even during winter of 2019/20 which was notorious for the PV of doom - it was wetter however there were colder incursions and there was snow and at times quite a lot over Scotland which we could discuss but the fact there hasn't even been any snow in Scotland for weeks and months is something very eerie actually.

What is also eerie is how the temperatures in the stratosphere is cooling further and the PV is strengthening when it should be warming and the temperature in the stratosphere should be warming thus weakening the strength of the PV!

I don't know what else to say....I am lost for words.

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In a months time when we're staring down the barrel of a deep cold snow laden easterly we'll look back at todays posts with a smile. 

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Yes, thin gruel might have been a better description.

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Here's hoping lol 

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/grouch mode

There's a fair bit of irritating stuff in this thread this morning. The 'hasn't it been a cr*p winter for cold/snow' comments may be accurate but aren't relevant to the models and would be better in the dedicated thread. They're even more irritating when they serve to reinforce the other comment purporting to be on the models but which was at best a rather poor summation of what's being shown.

The above snapshots show the projected colder blips in the generally unsettled set up. (Yes, I could equally pick the milder sectors). They'll vary from run to run but the pattern so far is consistent over the last couple of days. HP retreating to the West or South West and 2-3 day cooler interludes coming in from the west or north west, followed by milder sectors of varying duration and impact with the longest and mildest interludes affecting the far south. That'll bring snow to the high ground further north, possible the odd bit to lower ground further north and eff all down here but hopefully some sunshine and not too much rain. There will also probably be some strong winds at times too, something that needs watching as could develop the occasional quite vicious little system if they interact with the jet favourably.

The models haven't shown any noticeable chance of a colder spell or even particularly deep cold air. In the context of winter having been pants so far the setup isn't something to change that for a lot of the country but that's not really the point. Objectively the set up is one that has some interest for some, viewing it through the lens of -10 850s from the East just makes for oddly misleading comments on the charts which assuming we have any casual views to the thread probably aren't too helpful.

/grouch mode over

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Good post 

 

 

(Although the problem with this sort of set-up is that, even if it does deliver snow, that snow is vert transient - a couple of days before milder air and rain washes it all away. I'd rather one deep snowfall, then it stays on the ground for 2/3/4 weeks - of course, that's really rare)

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Yup, it's not really anything other than a fairly standard winter setup, although if it verifies it'll be good to see as the cooler end of our standard winter weather has been scarce so far. I try and look at things as some temporary snow is better than no snow, someone getting snow is better than no one getting snow and if we luck out and get something a bit more interesting that's a bonus.

As you mentioned yesterday there's a bit of a tendency for people to dismiss set ups because they're boring for their back yard. There's also a tendency to dismiss setups on the basis they're not a Feb 91, Dec 2010 etc. which given they're the exception and not the rule will lead to most winter charts most of the time being 'rubbish' in comparison.

Both I guess are understandable but the first can be mitigated by at least acknowledging the impacts elsewhere may be different. Short of moving somewhere more favourable I don't know how you fix the second

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Agree. This winter has brought and is continuing to bring just the same thing everyday. No action in the atmosphere at all. Very, very stagnant. Whatever pattern flip happened in mid-July last year, it is one that is just refusing to budge. 

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In it’s own way this winter is as extreme as Jan 87 spell of Dec 10. It could go down as a nearly winter - nearly very mild and nearly cold! As it stands February could be more standard winter weather - with gales and fast moving systems. Perhaps March can put us in the freezer!

Decent consistency from GFS 12z op - throws up slightly more in the way of sleet/transient snow for less Northern parts but ignoring the detail which will of course change, the general pattern remains consistent. Whether it'll stay that way or get watered down nearer the time is as usual TBC!

One thing not mention particularly is just how windy it's going to be for Scotland and parts of Northern England over the weekend. UKV has nudged this up a little for Saturday:-

Sunday then has a small area of strong winds moving through southern Scotland and Northern England, with top gusts around 85 mph.

Leaving aside the potential for snow* over the higher ground, the winds look likely to be enough to cause disruption.

*Not watched them religiously this week but today's MetO forecast was first time they mentioned potential for snowfall over parts of Scotland on Sunday, before that they'd just been talking about rain...

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Amber wind warning for E Scotland Saturday, and yellow fro the rest of Scotland that day spreading S as far as E Anglia on Sunday.

Not well picked up by the models in advance

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Nope, infact ‘completely out of the blue’ would be nearer to the mark for this area…

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Eeeeww at the 200 hrs and beyond range on the GFS 18z, windstorms after windstorms which does not appeal to me at all. Just as well that it is in the far reaches and thus fit for the bin, if the 18 z is supposed to be a "pub run", it's no wonder pubs are closing down at an alarming rate. 

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Personally I quite enjoyed this morning’s posts, and very few posts irritate me. A forum is a WIFLE outlet after all (I.e What Ever I Feel Like Expressing), be it technical, or how the models or their results make people feel.

Having been on the planet more years than most, I have learned that pointing the finger means 3 others point back at oneself - and serves only to disqualify others and discourage posting and for what - to light their candle by snuffing that of another.

We share an interest in the weather and it is a glorious subject that unites all types of people. Let’s just enjoy gassing about our fascinating, unpredictable, yet scientific passion, as we don't need any weather police.

It’s an odd phenomenon of forums that there is angst from some in them, and you see it for all sorts all of seemingly uncontentious subjects, even a diet club, where a poster lambasted another for confessing to eating some food off diet, I guess looking for support - but was attacked for it (which ensured they received the opposite of support), and was so upset they left the forum. Can we all play nicely please children.   

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It all rubbish models, but go back to the past via Ceefax, teletext, newspapers will forecast in advance for any strong winds or any other weather events always come off than today all is about back tracking, delay pushbacks, not picked up at all like now and etc. 

I suppose one different and perhaps positive thing this winter is there haven't been any classic "pub runs". Especially since mid-December there hasn't really been anything indicating a severe snap even in FI. This has at least minimised the rattle throwing when as usual it doesn't materialise.

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Theme of higher heights and less cold next weekend this morning on ECM and GFS. Underestimated heights, the curse of UK model watching. UKMO better but a bit isolated.
GFS mean a bit better than Op but trending the wrong way.

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WX summary shows that in week 1 the only bits of 'Europe' with below norm temps are N Norway and Turkey, and in week 2 the cold air withdraws further E-wards. The odd bits of pptn over C Europe/Med die out and by week 2 any rain/snow is in the Atlantic from N Scotland N-wards, still dry in S England.

Jet much stronger than previously forecast for next few days and close to N Scotland, dying away by Wed. Another burst across Scotland Sun 6th persisting for a week before fading.

GFS 0z - the HP over the UK stays around for the next two weeks with LPs skirting round the N and intensifying over Scandi where there will be persistently strong and cold N/NW-lies, occasionally affecting N/E Britain (notably this weekend, see MetO weather warnings)

GEFS - temps down Tue 1st & Sat 5th, up Thu 3rd and - with wide spread from ensemble members - up Mon7th declining t norm. A little rain in some runs in the S from Sat 5th, rather more in the N, and in the NW continual and occasionally heavy. Snow row figures consistently high for Inverness, often reaching low teens in the rest of Scotland, an occasional '10' elsewhere

ECM - similar pattern to GFS, including a deeper LP than n GFS for Scandi Tue 8th

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Hints of high pressure migrating more to SE Europe in the longer term. This could mean exceptional warmth hitting the UK Feb 2019 style but leaving us vulnerable to a colder incursion from N NE..which wouldn't be bad for snow in late Feb March.Alongside the usual extra convection could provide more excitement than the past 3 years put together.

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Ugh!

Well anyway.... currently there is always the US eastern seaboard webcams I suppose🥴🥴

 

 Subjective view because I don't have data to back it up, but it IMO it is another very simple rule which can be added to the forecaster's notebook. 

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The perpetual quasi spring continues without forseeable change.

If this is climate change, bring it on. Always wanted an Olive tree in the garden

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Or Athens, Istanbul or Jerusalem etc..

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Interestingly it was predicted many weeks in advance by Steeltown. It would be of benefit if mainstream organisations actively researched solar influence on extremes.