Same here. And interestingly enough, the Carolinas also experienced unusually wam temps over the Christmas/New Year period:

Charlotte residents enjoy record-breaking warm temperatures this winter (wbtv.com)

Has to be some sort of connection going on there. 

 

 

 

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The more reliable CFS brings us this in 3 weeks , I knew we wouldn't have to wait too long 

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Agree with this 100%. I am basically disregarding anything after about 5 days completely now after the way the models have performed recently.

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Surely one of the most historic areas of high pressure of all time for the UK if this keeps going?

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Op run teases a little if we can get connected to Arctic high Feb might not be so warm

CFS 06z long range run - Wow what a beast! Just thought of sharing this just for fun, the caveat is that it's +1296z away and in Springtime! 

 Just to add- we STILL have above average heights out in in N Atlantic above the Azores!

This high pressure just won't disappear!

 

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I see the trend back towards more direct HP influence over the weather has been maintained this evening. General consensus seems to be HP cells wandering across the Atlantic and joining with the cell near the UK meaning the HP is rarely static enough to bring in anything other than short not particularly cold shots and slightly longer and possibly very mild shots too (more so IMBY than further North). 

It's an odd pattern to look at in some ways, a succession of strong northern arm jet streaks and a conveyor of HP cells. 

I suppose at least the row back to more direct HP influence makes a change from cooler zonality ending up as plain old mild zonality as usually happens and although a change in the next 10 days or so looks unlikely, there's still time left for something more interesting to crop up. Must admit I'm not hopeful though and just feels like (for a change) there's too much energy heading our way for anything interesting to happen. Maybe one year we'll have a strong jet aimed underneath a cold HP block and we'll get buried

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Yeah… let’s hope it’s before I get buried……

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[quote=Chunky Pea;1414224]

 

I wonder is it possible that there is some unknown 'index' in the tropical Atlantic similar to that of El Nino/La Nina phenomena in the Pacific that is driving this NE Atlantic weather pattern? We've seen a big pattern flip over in N. America in recent weeks yet this has had zero impact on the broad Atlantic pattern - when it normally would have,  so something bigger must be at play here (a bigger 'driving force', if you will)

I have 9 in my garden and the oil from 8 is great the other is perfect for eating. 😁

What's also confusing is that the 18z GFS shows an Ensemble 850hpa mean in London of -8.3c at 12pm on Monday 30th yet the air temperature is forecast to be held up at +9.0c which is still at or above average for time of year despite North westerly airflow. Now do the math for this!?

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WX summary - cold air continues its retreat NE-wards even after most of Europe above seasonal norm week 1. Rain concentrated in N Atlantic, maybe drifting as far S as the Channel week 2

Jet running clos to or over Scotland until sun 13th when there's a strong flow across England setting up

GFS 0z - HP somewhere to the S of the UK throughout, occasionally a bit further N with calmer weather, occasionally troughs from the N swinging past, but in general Uk is sandwiched between it and Lp near Iceland with winds from a W-ly point. 9The suggestion of HLB and a NE-ly into FI as shown yesterday has gone)

GEFS - temps up (2nd, 8th, poss 12th Feb) and down (now, 5th, 9th Feb) with amplitudes 4 or 5 C from norm. Mean then runs out close to norm up to 16th. A little rain for the S in week 2, rather more in the N esp around Mon 7th. Far N (Inverness) more consistently cold with quite high snow row figures throughout - good for skiers higher up in the Cairngorms?

ECM - similar to GFS though more inclined to NW-lies than W-lies

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We're quickly reaching the time of the year when it can become very mild, especially in the south. Nothing unusual showing up at the moment, although that chart is notably mild in the north, but well worth watching as we head into February. I wonder if we will be talking about February "warmth" this year?

 

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For me, one thing that has been as large an obstacle to us getting a cold spell an anything else in the weeks since New Year has been the strength of the northern arm of the jet. Given how much of the time HP has been close to the south of the UK recently, it is my belief that had the northern jet not been as strong as it has been lately, the HP to the south would have had better chances to build northwards/northeastwards and thereby increase the chances of a colder spell. Since New Year, the northern jet seems to have gone into overdrive and as I say, this has been as much of a problem lately as the continued presence of HP to the south.

Maybe when the northern arm of the jet finally runs out of steam as it will do at some point, the pattern will change somewhat. I seem to recall back in 2008, after a mild and largely snowless winter early that year, that in mid-March there was a notable pattern change and we then had about a month of pretty chilly weather for the time of year. I'm not saying that will happen this year, but with our weather one never knows.

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I drove from Perth to Aberdeen last week and it was indeed quite obvious the deep low pressure some weeks ago, otherwise named by a specific meteorological service as 'Arwen', had left many trees down it it's wake. Alongside parts of the A90 especially around Brechin there were large areas of fallen trees.
I suspect that is quite a bit worse this morning.

Back OT and I can see no reason to change my view that unsettled and predominantly average to mild conditions will prevail into February.

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Don’t normally say this but Feb looking like no cold for the southern contingent, certainly more northern areas could get some lively weather on a strong westerly theme. I know the models don’t go that far (apart from some ENS) but the pattern does look quite locked in. Happy for it not to be the case but going by this winter it’s definitely tough to get a pattern change. If it can’t be cold hoping for a nice warm flow - nice to see an 18/19 degree sunny day

Zonal - HP often in control to the south. Usable for this location but just a few frosts possible from a cold perspective

GFS op begins to tease showing a pressure rise over Scandi

As we're in February I would not be surprised but so many other factors are needed for a decent cold spell. I always look for eastern blocking in February but not excited yet!

 

Agreed - definitely not excited at the moment. I wouldn't wish 90mph winds and the damage they cause on anyone but sometimes I think I'd like a taste of it down here if only to break the monotony. There are no members that reach -10hPa this morning. Truly remarkable that even in the noise of an uncertain outlook we can't get a -10 run into London in early Feb.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres

 

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Quite. Surely from a coldies point of view this must rank as one of the most disastrous winters of all time? At least in 88 we could convince ourselves that it was an anomaly. However, the reality now is that the chance of snow in the south is significantly lower than it was back then. On the plus side we can at least be confident that 30C will be reached in the summer.

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GEFS put paid to any chance at the moment - pretty awful for cold! 

  still undecided climate change or pure bad luck ?

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Hi Neil, would you be able to free up a bit of space in your in-box so I can send you a message? 

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What I find odd is that today we are experiencing a North westerly winds and the uppers as per GFS are close to -8.0c @850hpa at 12pm in London today yet the current temperature is +10c in London?

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Yes, I've noticed that of late that the same 850's are bring higher temperatures. Must be just mixing or something because one thing climate change doesn't change is the physics which are absolute. -8C 850's will always be -8C but they might not be as frequent!

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