It would be nice to see at least one snowflake this winter. 

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Beautiful to see a 17c on the 6z for mid month.
Bring it on. 🤞

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Some 18s in there as well. If it isnt going to snow bring it on!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=345&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

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Looking like the front tonight will have a squall line through it...

Who remembers the really impressive cold front i think it might have been around 2012. dropped the temp by about 7*C in a few minutes and produced quite a bit of snow ina short space of time

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I was thinking that also……..Met Office app has the temp here at 6pm 9c and at 7pm 4c so an impressive drop 

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Yes, apart from tomorrow's cold front, we might manage a short chilly spell in the form of a brief toppler by this time next week before the whole thing get flattened out - again. The low heights to the north is just too robust with producing a sturdy north Atlantic jet stream, might be better off hoping for early Spring-like warmth as we go into the middle/second half of this month. 

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Just mentioned in current conditions that Sutherland saw a drop from 9.9 C to 2.9 C in 40mins! The front is not too far from you now Alan

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The latest lottery draw offering from GFS has modified the brief cold waft 10th-12th Feb and ends very Springlike with mid-teens possible.

I'll still be watching next weekend as this could offer the greatest chance of something a bit like winter down here in what has otherwise been a complete car crash so far.

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Just had a temp drop from 10.6C at 17.20 , to 3.6 C at 17.30 !!! Certainly the biggest drop in such a short space of time i have seen. A Real cold front, heavy rain currently. 

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I was looking at the 06z GFS and thought wow a February 2019 deja vu and then looked at 12z and thought perhaps yet another February 2019 dejavu on the cards and then realised it was a massive mild outlier in both 06z and 12Z but things have cooled down again between 10th and 12th.

Notice in both the operational goes from one of the coldest runs to one of the mildest: - is there a trend here ? Anyway nice to see a change after months of the same old borefest!

06z Earlier:

 

12z - Latest

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Hope it turns sleety and could turn to wet snow with cooling - let's hope it stays heavy enough! Nice to report some weather at long last.

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We should talk about the possibility of some seriously disruptive snow to the far NW next Wednesday. Potentially extremely heavy showers or thunderstorms packing into the far NW of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Alot of snow accumulation here.

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Some unusually high snow totals for the Outer hebridies in particular.

 

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If it does come off. Then yes. 

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WX summary chart; temps as yesterday, Europe as a whole above norm and cold well to the east; only Turkey on the map below norm. Rain still in N Atlantic, but shown this morning additionally further S, Germany in week 1, France and England in week 2

Jet across Scotland to Wed 9th, then a quiet period, resuming S of then across England Wed 16th

GFS op - zonal W or NW to Fri 11th, then LP 985 mb Hebrides Sun 13th drifting SE across Britain followed by trough extending from Greenland which resolves into an intense storm (see above posts) 955mb N Hebrides Fri 18th which blows itself out quickly; then back to zonal.

GEFS - In S temps bumpily rising to mild Wed 9th, back to cool Sat 12th, then little agreement in ens members with both mild and cool represented, op & control on mild side. A few splashes of rain week 1, more frequent from Fri 11th. Temps similar in Scotland though early mildness is brief, rain in both week 1 and week 2 esp heavy later on in NW.

ECM - brings in a storm in the Hebrides much earlier (Thu 10th) and then quite different to GFS with 1040mb HP over Ireland Sat 12th weakening but still in control Mon 14th.

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https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

The length of the cold snap next week has narrowed. Of course, this could change but this has been a feature of recent cold snaps - their length generally shortening as they come closer in time.

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Like the look of that little feature on the 10th Feb ECM chart, is it a polar low? Could produce a snowfall for scotland. 

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Zzzz....February looks like being an exceptionally boring average sort of a month, and looking very zonal for February. All based on current output of course, as we know it's pretty useless beyond about 5 days.

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Nope just a low pressure system moving south east from Iceland. Polar lows won't be picked up by the models till much closer to the time. 

It may well produce some snow for the Scottish hills though, and risk of strong winds sadly.

The extent of deep cold air spilling out the Canadian maritimes into the far north Atlantic early next week is remarkable:

ECMOPEU06_90_2.png (959×741) (wetterzentrale.de)

Thankfully, yet another Azores ridge builds over these shores to prevent this deep cold from making any inroads. Phew! Thanks Azores high... thank you so much..

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Yes UK and Ireland as ever is on the warmer side of the jet and has milder Atlantic air mass whilst cold goes to the same old places like most of Europe esp the central, southern and SE and places like Greece and Turkey.

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Plenty of snow here this morning. 

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Not unusual though. The average upper air temperatures across the northern hemisphere reach their coldest in the next fortnight. 

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-23C and sunny in Goose Bay on the SE coast of Canada with a WSW breeze

True, but when the -10c hPa isotherm reaches into the middle of the Atlantic:

ECMAVGEU00_120_2.png (959×741) (wetterzentrale.de)

the 'normal' would be for it to trigger some intense cyclogenesis - or at least some potent weather systems,  but this just isn't happening this winter. 

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