Could be a few surprises on Thursday.

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Persistence of high pressure through January leading to a very dry month. Lack of both storms and cold spells. Performance of seasonal models. Failure of background signals. 

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I agree , I was chatting to Gav P and said January was quite rare in every way , not sure many saw this Winter coming 

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They failed because they are not really signals at all. 

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The only plausible explanation I can see regarding this winter is something Eric Snodgrass (US Meteorologist) said recently regarding the almost complete failure of the 'sub-tropical jet' to make any significant inroads into the southern states this winter., which could be a factor as to why the Azores high encountered little resistance to its accursed dominance this season over the Atlantic. 

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I'd also suggest that this winter has been unseasonably dry, especially in the SE.

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January certainly was a bit odd with that sunny high pressure lasting so long. Looks like February is trying to make up for the lack of storms. Lack of cold spells yes but certainly not the first Winter to lack cold spells. Not sure I have really learnt anything new regarding seasonal models/background signals, other than what I basically knew before - that they don't work most of the time!

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Definite signal emerging for a rather more mobile and at times stormy week next week.

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appreciate lack of storms down south, but some rather nasty ones occurred up north/east  in the last couple of months, damage unseen for decades, whole estates off trees flattened al la Micheal fish”s famous non hurricane in the south east ! Was in Suffolk when that one hit.

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Personally, I think the only thing that's been unusual has been the dry and perhaps surprisingly sunny January. It wasn't wall-to-wall sunshine but for a winter anticyclone it was pretty good. To be honest if it's not going to be snowy then January's weather was the next best thing. It hasn't been that mild either as going by the reliable daffodil index they are not particularly advanced for the time of year. 

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Proper weather at last 

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UK 168 looking for a NW / SE tilt ..................exciting stuff 

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Wales is a different country; SE England was miserably cloudy for most of January albeit dry - but the daffodils enjoed the absence of frost and are now well out along with crocuses and snowdrops

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Wx temp summary still looking much the same as for the last week with cold air across N Europe but not as cold as it should be at this season; as for pptn, increasingly blowing in from the Atlantic and penetrating further into Europe from the NW

Jet broad and strong across UK around Wed 16th; something to the SE of UK now and to the NW Thu24th but quiet in between these periods

GFS op - moderate W-ly regime until Wed 16th when broadly-based storm from NW(960 mb off NE Scotland) and a more local storm 970mb Sat 19th same place. Then rather slack pressure finally resolving into HP ridge SW-NE across UK Thu 24th

GEFS - cool around Fri 11th then mean back to near norm but agreement breaks down from Wed 16th. Rain from Sun 13th onwards, esp heavy in far NW. Snow row figures suggest heavy snow for Scottish mountains.

ECM - runs the LP on Wed 16th quickly past N Scotland but lets it stick over Norway (as has so often happened this winter) with the NW gales deferred to the Friday

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Weve gone from charts completely void of winter weather, to charts that on an average winter we would argue how pants they are...

and this is seen as an upgrade to January.

Says alot about this winter 🙂 🙂

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Got a feeling this winter is going to have a big sting in its tail. The charts just seem to be that much more inclined to wintry weather towards the end of the runs...

As ive mentioned before - I always think nature balances things out, so what weve been excessive in one season usually bites back with the opposite in the next....

Our winters now frequently exist Feb-March anyway.

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Signs of the Jetstream shifting southwards briefly on the 6z early next week only for it to move Northwards again. We've not seen a Southerly displaced Jetstream since at least last Winter, does feel like the long-term pattern could be finally changing perhaps.

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Just in time for summer!!

 

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Got asked at work today "when are we going to see some snow?".   I told them, "possibly April" .....

Snowless winters are becoming the norm down here, to the extent that it neither surprises nor disappoints me any more.

(sorry, not really model related, other than that the models support me)

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Don't they always? It's a maritime climate, and Feb/March is when the sea surface temps are at their lowest. That's why I always prefer to see snowy synoptics in Feb/March than in Dec/Jan - the margin for error is much greater. You don't have to get everything aligning just so for cold and snow to happen.

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Speak for yourself! Can't remember the last time we had decent snow in Feb. Dec, Jan, Mar: all had at least 2 good (+10cm) falls this century. I think the best Feb fall has been about 2cm.

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Brilliant sledging here 1st Feb. 2019. Schools and roads closed, the lot! Mind you, I remember walking up the same hill three weeks later sweating in a tee-shirt, as we switched back from weather to climate change.

Edit: Great pic from Bath that morning:

https://www.alamy.com/uk-weather-bath-somerset-england-1st-february-2019-heavy-snow-brings-the-city-to-a-standstill-image234326803.html

.

 

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Seem to get Mediterranean style winters now especially in the south without the risk of the very cold incursions which the real Med get, Feb March 2018 was just a flukey puff of dust really.

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March 2018 was epic! Even as late as 19 March there was a fresh fall of deep snow and excellent sledging. And that's just 30 m above sea level in Somerset!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwWPlT371I8

 

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There have been plenty of serious snow and cold events here, for example last February. And then last April air frosts all but 4 or 5 nights
March 2018 was also very  severe at the start with major drifting and day time highs about -3


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nsp85hPXyYo



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Th0pAAOVz-0

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