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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2022 06:57:35

Briefly this morning:


Summary as ever, most of Europe slightly above normal temps, colder only on Norwegian coast and in Turkey. pptn  on N Atlantic occasionally blowing into Europe from the NW


GFS op - mainly zonal W-lies, interrupted occasionally by a deeper LP (Sun 13th N-ly on back edge) or more intense HP (Sun 20th) passing by. Extreme gales shown yesterday have moderated somewhat


GEFS - temps up and down, never staying at one extreme or other for long, mean finishing on seasonal norm (In the N a tendency to be on the cool side). Rain (snow for hills at times) mostly in week beginning Sun 13th, more in NW


ECM = like GFS, LP is 14th rather than 13th


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Russwirral
09 February 2022 08:48:12

Cut the lawn weather


 (removed image as it was goosing up the page.... image was of a warmish southerly wind)


 


idj20
09 February 2022 11:03:16

Boy, the 06z GFS is in a grumpy mood this morning. Got out of the wrong side of the bed?


Folkestone Harbour. 
ozone_aurora
09 February 2022 11:48:31

This morning's GFS resembles that of February 1989, I recall.

tallyho_83
09 February 2022 12:25:41


Cut the lawn weather


 



Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


...Unless you live in Turkey and Greece etc - as ever! 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2022 13:19:21


Briefly this morning:


 


GFS op 0z- mainly zonal W-lies, interrupted occasionally by a deeper LP (Sun 13th N-ly on back edge) or more intense HP (Sun 20th) passing by. Extreme gales shown yesterday have moderated somewhat


Originally Posted by: DEW 


They're back on the 06z and very much more from the N for next Mon & Thu


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Brian Gaze
09 February 2022 13:43:37

ECM ENS 50+1 plots should be on TWO soon. 


 




Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
briggsy6
09 February 2022 14:18:14

The entire winter has been "cut the lawn weather" in these parts.


Location: Uxbridge
Ally Pally Snowman
09 February 2022 14:36:55

The wimpiest of wimp winters going out with a whimper. 


 



 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
some faraway beach
09 February 2022 14:57:10


 


They're back on the 06z and very much more from the N for next Mon & Thu


Originally Posted by: DEW 


A black hole at 336 hrs!



2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
marco 79
09 February 2022 15:15:03
Cut my lawn yesterday...looks fab and very April like...cut twice this winter...
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
DPower
09 February 2022 19:40:32
wow just wow, ecm t240 chart which as we know is one of the most reliable charts in NWP modelling. High pressure ridging north to connect with high over north eastern Siberia moving in our direction and brutal east, northeasterly cold wave to develop three to four days later sending plunging temperatures and heavy snow falls across much of the UK.

Winter sorted.
Essan
09 February 2022 21:11:54


Cut the lawn weather


 



Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Did mine a couple of weeks ago.  But yeah, will need doing again soon.   Although the lack of rain has helped restrict plant growth this spring so far.


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
MRayner
09 February 2022 22:37:32

wow just wow, ecm t240 chart which as we know is one of the most reliable charts in NWP modelling. High pressure ridging north to connect with high over north eastern Siberia moving in our direction and brutal east, northeasterly cold wave to develop three to four days later sending plunging temperatures and heavy snow falls across much of the UK.

Winter sorted.

Originally Posted by: DPower 


have you been reading the daily express again 😃


Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 February 2022 07:23:16

Little change to the summary outlook - this from yesterday still applies Summary as ever, most of Europe slightly above normal temps, colder only on Norwegian coast and in Turkey. pptn  on N Atlantic occasionally blowing into Europe from the NW . if anything Europe even more above seasonal norm in week 1 and also Atlantic rain heavier around the UK in week 2.


Jet weak but W-ly to Tu 15th then winding up, strong W-lies across the UK for the whole period through to Sat 26th with just the occasional break.


GFS op - local storm currently passing Scotland into N Sea. Then W-lies varying in strength and origin to 26th (some NW some SW). Possibility of a back edge N-ly Mon 14th but otherwise mobile; weather in any given place likely to depend on where fronts develop or stall at any given time. FAX shows a lot of stalled fronts with LP further S over England for Sun 13th.


GEFS - temps up and down by turns to Sat 19th degenerating into a scramble around the mean which stays near norm. Rain frequent throughout, heavier in N; more persistent but not as much in S as shown yesterday. Snow row figures quite high for far NW.


ECM - as GFS though inclined to source air more from SW than from NW


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
fairweather
10 February 2022 11:31:04



There have been plenty of serious snow and cold events here, for example last February. And then last April air frosts all but 4 or 5 nights
March 2018 was also very  severe at the start with major drifting and day time highs about -3


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nsp85hPXyYo



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Th0pAAOVz-0


Originally Posted by: four 


The North York Moors! I imagine you are under 45 if you think they are special.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
10 February 2022 11:32:10


The entire winter has been "cut the lawn weather" in these parts.


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


Yes - raspberry plants coming out in leaf !


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Chunky Pea
10 February 2022 17:22:54

We have a couple of 'Spider plants' that I always put outdoors in the late spring and take in again during the Autumn to protect them from frosts/wind etc. No need this time around. They are still doing well out in the open even into February.  


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Scandy 1050 MB
10 February 2022 17:33:42


 


Yes - raspberry plants coming out in leaf !


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Mine as well

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 February 2022 07:33:49

WX summary still much the same as for the last week or so; temps across Europe above seasonal norm and very much so in E Europe/Russia. The only areas below norm remain the Norwegian coast and Turkey (allowed honorary European status for this purpose). Still a large patch of heavy rain on NW Atlantic, spreading to NW coasts of Europe but not far inland.


FAX charts are worth watching in the zonal situation that we have at the moment as they show where the active weather is, in the frontal zone between the polar N and the maritime S; currently showing fronts around a small disturbance over S England Sun 13th and N England Tue 15th.


Jet running across the Uk until Thu 24th, particularly strong later on; then a gap but a new stream setting up Sun 27th


GFS op - mostly zonal from the W with transient LPs (Mon 14th E England, Fri 18th N Ireland, broad trough Thu 24th) and HPs (Sat 26th), tending to be cold in N and mild in S but with the LPs bringing cold air S and HP pushing it back again


GEFS - in the S temps oscillate above and below norm, rain on and off from Sun 13th; in Scotland a more level temp profile tending to be on cool side and heavier rain throughout (snow row figures suggest 'rain' will mean plenty of snow on hills, occasionally on low ground too)


ECM - zonal pattern as for GFS but LP on Fri 18th doesn't show up (neither ECM or GFS make anything of the disturbance shown on FAX for Tue 15th)


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Crepuscular Ray
11 February 2022 12:10:13
Going by the models this morning it looks like Scotland will be seeing a long period of Polar Maritime Air (returning?). Lots of stormy wet & showery weather with copious mountain snow at times!
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
dagspot
11 February 2022 12:39:16
Polar Maritime can deliver!
Neilston 600ft ASL
tallyho_83
11 February 2022 13:00:54

Can't believe how dire this winter has been in terms of anything interesting weatherwise from a cold perspective and it's very strange how the PV is strengthening as we head into latter stages of winter when it should be weakening!


I have given the models a break for a few days only to find that there is no change:



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


CField
11 February 2022 13:49:49


Can't believe how dire this winter has been in terms of anything interesting weatherwise from a cold perspective and it's very strange how the PV is strengthening as we head into latter stages of winter when it should be weakening!


I have given the models a break for a few days only to find that there is no change:



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Yes a horrible zonal train we now have to endure....absolutely rotten.


Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
MRayner
11 February 2022 16:22:40

Looks like 2 nasty storms on the bounce for north west uk next week, though the gfs does tend to exaggerate the intensity, if it comes off they are going to be trouble 😦


Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL

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