Must admit I was surprised to see it still there

ECM ens IMBY are showing a greater than normal possibility of colder than average weather around 5th March although enough scatter to suggest a range of options on the table.

GFS op keeps the HP further south so no cold air initially although in deep FI goes on to develop a whacking great big Northern block with cold air following. The ens aren't particularly keen on anything cold down here, with just the odd colder member.

If past performance is a guide we may get a couple of days of chilly weather before it collapses but you never know I guess. At the very least it looks like there's a higher chance than we've had for some time of a cold pattern setting up (as opposed to colder interludes for the north as is currently the case!).

Whilst I'd very much like some dry and fairly warm weather as we're heading in to spring, I'll happily take even transient snowfall and if we got a cloudy cold easterly setting in no reason why daytime melting wouldn't be minimal even down here. Not a likely scenario but possible and something I'll be keeping an eye on to see if the signal develops

 

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Good to see you back so soon David after having your new eyes fitted! I hope you are recovering well?

GEFS shows uncertainty from March 1st and huge uncertainty from the 5th. The 00z shows a possible London max. temp. on March 10 ranging between 1C and 17C! Some sort of easterly is looking increasingly likely but how cold and for how long is still a long way from being determined. 

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There are certainly interesting signals, including the unresolved possibility we could quite rapidly end up in a scandi high scenario:

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Typical we don't see any of these set up's over actual winter time and the first few days of Spring - the charts throw up these eye candy set ups to laugh in our faces! I bet the NAO will go negative on 1st March as well as the fact that there could be a SSW: - May not occur but this has been a consistent signal in each run for temperatures at 10hpa to rise in latter stages of FI:

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First week of march can be very wintry ofc! I've seen long lasting snow at the end of march before so an extended cold spell should definitely not be dismissed just because it would happen outside the technical definition of winter!

 

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Agreed.

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Good to see you back, hope all went well. 

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A more settled outlook with a succession of high pressure cells peeling off the Azores high at times, migrating further north with time. With light winds and early Spring sunshine it should feel Springlike, frosts at night.

There is the risk with such a pattern that we could introduce a cold easterly if the high migrates too far north.

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Briefly; I'm not signed off for a couple of weeks yet, but at the moment results have been excellent -dramatic improvements in near and far vision and eyes not feeling irritation. Back to business:

Summary charts; temps as ever, cold in NE Europe but not as cold as norm, milder in SW but not as mild as norm (exc extreme S Spain). Pptn heavy for NW Scotland and Norway, very dry for France and Spain, bits and pieces elsewhere.

Jet not very active, mostly looping around between Scotland and Iceland. A broad and strong feature develops over N Africa in 10 days' time.

GFS op; Hp over UK for next two weeks, with Atlantic depressions brushing the NW, closest approach Mon 28th & Thu 3rd; by Fri 11th the current LP makes its way past the HP block and into N Europe but unlike yesterday staying out to the E, producing N-lies in the Baltic which do not transpose to a Spring E-ly for the UK.

GEFS - in the S temps close to norm or a little above at first (after today) , spread gradually widening to +/- 10C by the 12th; a little rain in some runs from the 1st. In the N similar though some brief cooler interludes from time to time and less spread at end of run. Wetter in NW Scotland

ECM - after the 3rd the HP establishes itself as a centre further N (Shetland) with E-lies and SE-lies for Southern UK

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Looks suspiciously like the upcoming pattern change will be to one which is close to bringing a cold spell in but not quite there before the pattern slumps again. ECM ens IMBY continue to suggest a couple of colder days around the 5th March, before a return to average or above average 850s. Given the op this morning I'd guess it favours a declining HP over europe allowing milder air to flow up over the UK. 

Pressure on both ECM and GFS sets is high for most of the run IMBY so we could have some very pleasant early spring weather with not a lot of wind or rain although as usual I imagine the further North West you are the less settled it'll be.

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Been walking in the snow & ice this morning but its nice to see 'Springlike' synoptics on the models.

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ECM50 looks to have backtracked a little on the possibility of a cold spell.

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Well that's new then! NOT.

Zonal winds remain strong as well. 

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Really hope the warming promotes the high in a good spot for spring warmth like GFS op run shows

ICON18z very quick to try and develop a scandi high.

 

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And there's GFS 18z showing the Atlantic roaring back in once again  (But is in FI range).

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ECM looking for a block ...............D10 sadly 

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Temp summary as yesterday - cold in NE Europe but not as cold as norm, milder in SW but not as mild as norm (exc extreme S Spain) - but pptn forecast to move inland and down across France in week 2 where yesterday it was shown as extremely dry. 

Jet not very active at first, mostly looping around between Scotland and Iceland, but then unlike yesterday forecast from Thu 10th to develop strongly across S England/N France

GFS op - HP over or close to S England for a while with LP brushing past NW Scotland; esp Mon 28th, may send a front S-wards too, and troughs also denting the HP Fri 4th and Wed 9th. Then major onslaught from Atlantic Fri 11th (950mb off NI, LP covering all UK) and by Mon 14th linking with LP in Biscay. But note that FI is shifting quite sharply from day to day

GEFS - in the S temps varying above and below norm, less extreme than yesterday, rain around Tue 1st, not much for a week than increasingly probable. In the NW, temps also up and down but tending to be on a lower baseline; ppt profile similar but more of it.

ECM - like GFS until Fri 4th when the HP collapses more completely, and the HP re-forming afterwards moves NE-wards to Norway allowing E-lies to run across the UK (GFS at this stage still has S-lies)

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I saw the 12z control and thought hmm. Then looked at the GFS ens and realised it was a cold outlier.

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Temp summary as yesterday and the day before - cold in NE Europe but not as cold as norm, milder in SW but not as mild as norm, perhaps a little colder across C Europe - but pptn forecast to move inland and down across France in week 2 where it had been shown as extremely dry. The dry patch is now appearing over Poland and the Baltic.

Jet as yesterday at first with weak loops to the N; from Wed 8th the forecast keeps changing - today loops to the S affecting Britain becoming a strong jet heading for Spain Mon 14th 

GFS Op = HP over near continent standing off Atlantic LPs, so S-ly winds until Wed 3rd. Then partial collapse as small LP makes it to SE England 1010mb Fri 5th and hangs around over the weekend. A deeper LP makes an approach from the W 950mb off Ireland Thu 10th - Fri 11th but drifts N-wards allowing S-lies to resume, albeit weakly

GEFS Temps near norm, slightly milder at first, cooler around Sat 6th; dry in the E after rain initially until Wed 9th when becoming more common and in a few runs heavy, in the W the rain never really goes away

ECM - more of a shallow trough extending from the W around 5th-7th rather than a closed-circulation LP then (12z at time of posting) LP from Atlantic makes an earlier approach, getting close to NW Scotland from Sun 6th

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For anyone planning anything special next weekend, very difficult to know what to expect from the models and ens this morning. Could be anything from chilly and unsettled to sunny, dry and feeling very pleasant.

And beyond from GFS 

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I understand from reading Matt Hugo's tweets in recent days that a SSW has occured or looks very likely to occur in the near future. Going by what has happened in the past, this will almost certainly be the main cause of the major differences between the models at the moment, even in the semi-reliable timeframe.

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12z goes very warm in the latter stages. Much prefer to see that than the risk of another cold spring. Bring it on.

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There is a fairly strong warming ongoing in the strat which may well lead to a temporary split in the vortex from 10mb down. This not a major SSW and will not be classed as one i would not have thought. What it will do is give the opportunity for perhaps some HLB's and perhaps set up a block to the north and northeast. 

I would not pay much attention to what Matt Hugo has to say. After reading his tweets the last couple of years, I realised  it was a waste of time. Reading on another forum it was only last week he was tweeting of a strong vortex to continue and little to no chance of a late  taste of winter.