Summary charts: something cool in W Europe this week with the 0C isotherm around Poland but next week the cold weather continues its retreat to the NE with W Europe closer to seasonal norm and S Spain looking definitely warm. Dry over W Europe this week, the dry area moving S to Med next week; UK esp in the W on the edge in each case.

Jet weak and erratic in neighbourhood of UK to Wed 9th; then firing up over Scotland but soon settling over England, quite strongly from Sat 12th

GFS Op; HP over near continent suppressing LP activity over UK but rather uncertainly with weak troughs pushing in Thu 3rd to Tue 8th; ending with deeper LPs affecting and then moving past NW Scotland Thu 10th and Mon 14th. FAX shows fronts embedded in any HP throughout, so not that settled

GEFS temps not far from norm (cooler at first in Scotland and more generally ca Sun 6th and Mon 14th, else milder); rain in most runs from time to time esp in NW and in any case more to be seen in S

ECM like GFS but the 'weak troughs' only around Thu 3rd before being replaced by HP

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Gfs 06z shows the effects of start warming and immediate downwelling through the layers into the troposphere. Similar in away to the Feb easterly of 2009.
I think this is what the models have been struggling with the last few days as to whether or not the split would down well into the trop or not. If yes then game on.

It's an interesting 6z setup, albeit cold pool is a little weak and the Atlantic shoves the block aside before it can bring any really cold air our way. -8 850s from that direction might be enough to bring some interest though I guess

Edit: Deeper into FI we end up with our first Spanish plume of the year 

 

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Icon 12z suggesting a weak North Easterly flow with -5 to -7 850s moving across the country during next weekend. It looks to me like the Atlantic will (much like the 6z GFS Op) shove the block aside before any decently cold 850s come our way although it could go either way I guess.

If Brian's theory on the ECM often being similar holds out that should show a chilly couple of days next weekend at least.

Probably not what a lot of folks are looking for but as it's a small tweak away from being cold enough for a bit of snow I'll keep an eyebrow quirked at least

 

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https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022022812/gfsnh-1-192.png?12 

12z doesn't look too bad, and much stronger block against an active Atlantic than the 06z . An interesting fortnight I would say...

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Model watching at the moment is rather curious. Its like a very faint star, you look directly at it and it dissapears.

Likewise there is a weak, but persistent background signal for blocking/scandi highs that vanishes and reapears.

Who knows what will come of it.

 

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Example: GFS control.

What to expect if this kinda thing comes off? Wintry showers, even to lower levels in the east, some settling snow even by night. Some deep instability could even turn the showers rather heavy at times. At this stage only -8C 850s but if we get much below -10C then it could become interesting even for march.

 

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Good consistency from the 6z to 12z GFS ops - pressure builds over Scandi, short lived hit of cold before the Atlantic shoves things aside but doesn't manage to push through in to Europe and we get some very mild air drawn up from Spain as the encroaching LP stalls to the West. If we can just get a bit more depth of cold in we could go from cold and snow one week to high teens (briefly) the next! (The warm plume is of course very deep in FI so unlikely to verify etc. etc. and given how fickle easterlies are and the models so far this year that's far from certain either).

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ECM continues this evenings theme - chilly air coming in from somewhere between North and East and just as some decently cold air arrives the Atlantic shoves it all away. The T216 chart has -11 850s over the extreme South East and East Anglia which is all gone by T240.

It'd pretty much sum things up if we still find there's too much 'oomph' in the Atlantic in March

GEFS seem to be slowly wandering towards a chilly/cold solution for a few days from 5th March although are also firmly in favour of a return to average or above 850s some where between 9th and 11th March.

All in all tantalisingly close to something interesting, and the GFS Op would bring some wintry showers in at least, but as it stands probably just not quite cold enough for anything more than that (or longer lasting). There's still time for a little Westward correction and for a slower victory for the Atlantic though, which would tilt things more favourably. 

Who'd have thought there'd be one last cold chase this year

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Unlike the amplified or block patterns we see thrown up by the NWP models which then disappear as quickly as they come, the Scandinavian heights being modelled have imho much more merit due to the strat forcing that is already underway. How potent an east, northeasterly will be is still very uncertain but I think we have a fair shout at perhaps a couple of days of quite wintry weather. Fingers crossed.

Looks quite dry to me. Chilly nights and cold breeze but probably quite sunny away from the east coast

All a case of too little too late sadly.

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Until you hit the 240 hrs range in the 18z GFS, that looks utterly grotty for us southerners but is in FI range so unlikely to verify. 

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WX Summary charts: temps showing the usual mild SW - cold NE as usual, but with an increase in the area from Spain up to N Russia below seasonal average, and this trend continuing into week 2. Less warmth in S Spain than shown yesterday. Pptn pattern also shifting; week 1 Atlantic incl UK and irregularly through the Med, dry in Germany, week 2 heavy over UK, France, Balkans, dry in Belarus/Ukraine. 

Jet - no action close to UK until Fri 11th when a variety of streaks and loops over southern UK & France

GFS op - HP over UK tending to drift NE to Scandi and allowing a variety of light NE/E/SE-lies to develop Sat 5th - Fri 11th, cool * but not connected to any deep cold; deep LP on Atlantic then appears with a battle between it and continental HP, UK on the edge between mild S-lies and cold W-lies, the latter sourcing air from Greenland. By Wed 16th the LP dominates enough to give a small closed circulation 985mb Cornwall. (* FAX shows a front stalled across central UK for much of this time)

GEFS - mild now, cool around Tue 8th, mean back to norm later but lots of variation in ens members; damp now (or in a couple of days' time in N), dry for a while, increasing likelihood of rain from the 8th especially heavy in W. 

ECM - like GFS but the deep Atlantic LP after Fri 11th looks as if it will run off towards Iceland rather than stick around in the Atlantic so mild SW-lies.

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In the short term several annoying slow moving fronts are embedded in the UK anticyclone which has been a major feature in recent summers. Let's hope it's not the start of a trend for 2022.

Further ahead, as DEW says, a cooling trend on the cards for a few days and then lots of uncertainty. A few days ago the GEFS 00Z for March 10 was showing max temps ranging in London from 1C to 17C. Today it has narrowed down that range only slightly and is now 3C to 13C.  

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Positive trends for a late taste of winter have taken a step back this morning. Their could be a couple of reasons for this ie less downward propagation of strat forcing on troposphere or the models rushing the downward propagating effects of the warming. Either way I think it worth holding off until the end of the working week before we know for certain whether or not we will see anything of note from the east or northeast.

There are shades of 1891 in the 06z GFS

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Meanwhile - SE Europe like Greece, Turkey and Balkans get more snow as ever!

I do feel for all those refugees fleeing conflict - no food or water too, freezing cold and looks like the snow from Balkans to Carpathians to Turkey to Ukraine including Moldova will last for the rest of the week.

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This is still the faint star easterly, popping in and out of existence.

On the 12Z ICON develops a very deep cold pool over Europe next door.

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Looking like a "battleground" type set up with deep low hanging over the Atlantic and high pressure holding firm over Europe resulting in several days of cold draughty southerlies (but with maritime air in the mix) over the UK. Yuk. 

 

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You have a long memory!

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Please remind me what happened in 1891!

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Quite agree.  It’s meteorological spring and I can do without an Arctic air mass; particularly with heating oil up 30% in a week.

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  one of the worst blizzards of the 19th century over southern England  

It's here on TWO

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=tystat&id=907 

particularly The Tavy Cleave on the edge of Dartmoor which is 500 feet deep was completely filled with drifted snow.

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