Wx summary charts reluctant to give up entirely the idea of milder air moving eastwards, but by comparison with two days ago, much more weakly, 0C isotherm only reaching St Petersburg by next week and still cold air hanging back over Norway and Ukraine. UK near norm at the moment but cooling slightly. Rain mainly persists over western UK and Spain and in week 2 further into the Med; the completely dry area shrinking so as to cover only Scandinavia.
Jet rather variable over the next two weeks; the broadest and strongest instances tending to be through Spain and the Med but with occasional narrower, weaker and temporary streaks between Iceland and Hebrides.
GFS op 0z: LP over SW Eire 975mb tomorrow splitting into two - the trough near Scotland soon fills but the other half moves down to Spain and settles there, and there is only weak E-ward penetration. The UK is then in a col between N Atlantic and Iberian LPs for a week; the weak ridge of HP which makes up the col resolves into an intense HP 1050mb Finland Sun 20th Mar, which leaves the UK under SE-lies. Another offshoot of the Atlantic LP then dives S to revive the Iberian LP which slowly moves NE, meaning that UK is under colder SE-lies, going round to NE-lies and LP in the N Sea Sun 27th.
GEFS: mild around Thu 17th, cool around Sun 23rd, after which less agreement between ens members; control back to norm at least in S but op remains cold. Rain from time to time, small amounts in E, larger amounts in W.
ECM: Similar to GFS but with some differences in the Iberian LP; it's more persistent but less deep with the effect of bringing air from the Continent sooner (Fri 18th) and more consistently from the east
Originally Posted by: DEW