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Taylor1740
06 March 2022 15:30:18


 


If it's any consolation, it shouldn't be that long before the vortex starts to weaken properly. The sun will be crossing the equator into the northern hemisphere about a fortnight from now and from that point on, time will be ticking for the vortex as it is currently.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


True and there's an SSW taking place, but the MO is still looking unsettled after the next 2 days or so


NW Leeds - 150m amsl
mulattokid
06 March 2022 16:02:29

....forget winter!


 


I would be very intersted in knowing how spring will develope, you clever model guys.


 


Stop talking and longing for winter.  It is dead 


Located in West London

"Everything in life is our fault, but that's not our fault!"
Anonymous friend of Quentin Crisp
briggsy6
06 March 2022 22:32:10

Forever probably, barring a Gulf Stream partial shutdown or realignment.


Location: Uxbridge
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 March 2022 06:22:50

Daily review discontinued for a while - see Forum Arms


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
mulattokid
07 March 2022 15:49:44


Forever probably, barring a Gulf Stream partial shutdown or realignment.


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


Located in West London

"Everything in life is our fault, but that's not our fault!"
Anonymous friend of Quentin Crisp
fairweather
07 March 2022 17:23:34


Forever probably, barring a Gulf Stream partial shutdown or realignment.


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


 ....... you forgot a nuclear winter 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
buachaille
07 March 2022 20:09:08


....forget winter!


 


I would be very intersted in knowing how spring will develope, you clever model guys.


 


Stop talking and longing for winter.  It is dead 


Originally Posted by: mulattokid 


 


Tres amusant. See the image I posted today……

tallyho_83
07 March 2022 23:35:42

Colder than average as per usual in Turkey and Greece - Same old really.



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


mulattokid
08 March 2022 10:36:08


 


 


Tres amusant. See the image I posted today……


Originally Posted by: buachaille 


Sure.  Where? 


Located in West London

"Everything in life is our fault, but that's not our fault!"
Anonymous friend of Quentin Crisp
buachaille
08 March 2022 15:09:59


 


Sure.  Where? 


Originally Posted by: mulattokid 


 


In "Latest Images", a little bit down the TWO Home Page

Saint Snow
08 March 2022 15:30:51


 


 


In "Latest Images", a little bit down the TWO Home Page


Originally Posted by: buachaille 


 


Lovely pic (Nevis Range doesn't anything like as snowy, though )


 


Edit - missed the mobile autocorrecting 'Nevis' to 'Never' 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 March 2022 07:29:27

Resuming ...


Summary charts beginning to show signs of Spring. The cold air over E Europe still occupying the same area but not as bitterly cold by week 2, though still below average for the time of year. France, Uk & scandi all a little above norm in week 1 and looking warmer in week 2. Rain for western UK , France and Spain week 1, shifting N-wards week 2 to Uk and Denmark. Very dry over germany and Baltic week1, the dry area moving E-wards


Jet running through Spain and Med to Sun 13th, after which fragmented and further N; something developing more strongly across UK from Wed 23rd.


GFS op - UK sandwiched between Atlantic LP and continental HP to Sun 13th, when a piece of the LP breaks off 990 mb S Eire and travels down to Iberia Tue 15th whereupon the sandwich resumes to about Fri 18th. The LP over Iberia has by then increased and combined with HP NW Scotland gives a couple of days of E-lies before, once again, the sandwich resumes but this time the Lp is closer to Britain


GEFS - mean not far from norm but expect a milder spell around Wed 16th after which increasing disagreement between ens members. Spits and spots of rain from time to time for most but wet in the SW at first and rain always more common in the W generally. 


ECM - Good agreement with GFS to Tue 15th but Iberian LP doesn't develop and instead HP arrives from the SW to be centred over England 1035mb  Fri 18th - no sandwich.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
ballamar
09 March 2022 14:41:40
www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/CFSOPEU00_4008_2.png
Blues beginning to appear over Greenland 😂
Bolty
09 March 2022 15:07:35

Yes please! The first spell of properly mild weather of the spring next week?



Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Jiries
09 March 2022 20:09:31


Yes please! The first spell of properly mild weather of the spring next week?



Originally Posted by: Bolty 


Very normal to see those warm March temps at some point so hope that will happen now.  

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 March 2022 08:08:44

Summary charts stay with the usual cold NE/mild SW European split for week 1 but a dramatic push of mild air E-wards in week 2 all the way up to Moscow , just hanging back around Norway/N Scotland and around Ukraine. Wet in Spain week 1, and as ever in NW Britain and Norway, but otherwise rather dry across Europe both weeks.


Jet as yesterday


GFS op - HP Europe and LP Atlantic and the usual sandwich for Uk at first until the LP spawns a local deep LP 980mb Bristol Channel Sun 13th moving to and becoming established over Iberia Tue 15th while HP first extends a ridge from the Azores and that then becomes centred 1055mb Baltic states Fri 18th bringing in SE-lies, occasionally quite cold. The Azores HP then comes back and links with the continental HP for a period of fine W-lies to FRi 25th - but breaks down in the last frame Sun 27th with LP Shetland


GEFS - temps near norm, milder around Thu 17th, cooler a week later; rain in small amounts from time to time except wet in SW week 1


ECM - similar to GFS though  those SE-lies less strong


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Taylor1740
10 March 2022 13:12:02
Looking at the GEFS March may actually get slightly cooler not warmer as we get towards the end of the month.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 March 2022 08:10:10

Wx summary. As you were! After yesterday's flip with mild air reaching Moscow, we're back to cold covering as far west as Poland, and (sadly) particularly cold on the southern edge towards Ukraine. A big temp gradient across Turkey (+20C close to S, 0C in N). UK a little above norm week 1, cooling week 2. Much of N Europe dry with rain affecting Uk down to Spain week 1, then really wet for the whole Med week 2.


Jet strongly across N Africa week 1, rather fragmented week 2 but most of those fragments well S of UK and (as above) finding their way into the Med


GFS op 0z: LP splitting off the N Atlantic circulation to be 975mb SW Eire Sun 13th and running on down to Spain Tue 15th leaving a weak trough briefly over Scotland. The LP dominates Spain or just W of Portugal for a week while HP sets up across N UK to Baltic 1040mb Sun 20th, with E-lies, sometimes quite cold for the UK (where were these synoptics in January?). After the 20th the LP drifts north 1000mb Biscay Thu 24th before finally filling with the last frames showing HP 1030mb S England Sun 27th


GEFS in S cool with some rain at first, mild and dry around Thu 17th, cooling with mean near norm but op very cold for a while Sun 20th and small amounts of rain later on. In N temps mostly near norm and again with the op showing a dip though more variation in ens members, rain at first, near 17th, and a bit later on. Always wetter in the W.


ECM similar to GFS but HP over Europe covers a broader area before the 20th with the effect of turning winds more S-ly than E-ly


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
tallyho_83
11 March 2022 20:29:04

ECM at +144 goes for uppers of -15c heading into Ukraine @ +144 - from Russia!


Could mean daytime maxes of -5c


Just when Ukraine and eastern Europe don't want this: - So sad!



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 March 2022 07:40:03

Wx summary charts reluctant to give up entirely the idea of milder air moving eastwards, but by comparison with two days ago, much more weakly, 0C isotherm only reaching St Petersburg by next week and still cold air hanging back over Norway and Ukraine. UK near norm at the moment but cooling slightly. Rain mainly persists over western UK and Spain and in week 2 further into the Med; the completely dry area shrinking so as to cover only Scandinavia.


Jet rather variable over the next two weeks; the broadest and strongest instances tending to be through Spain and the Med but with occasional narrower, weaker and temporary streaks between Iceland and Hebrides.


GFS op 0z: LP over SW Eire 975mb tomorrow splitting into two - the trough near Scotland soon fills but the other half moves down to Spain and settles there, and there is only weak E-ward penetration. The UK is then in a col between N Atlantic and Iberian LPs for a week; the weak ridge of HP which makes up the col resolves into an intense HP 1050mb Finland Sun 20th Mar, which leaves the UK under SE-lies. Another offshoot of the Atlantic LP then dives S to revive the Iberian LP which slowly moves NE, meaning that UK is under colder SE-lies, going round to NE-lies and LP in the N Sea Sun 27th.


GEFS: mild around Thu 17th, cool around Sun 23rd, after which less agreement between ens members; control back to norm at least in S but op remains cold. Rain from time to time, small amounts  in E, larger amounts in W.


ECM: Similar to GFS but with some differences in the Iberian LP; it's more persistent but less deep with the effect of bringing air from the Continent sooner (Fri 18th) and more consistently from the east


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
fairweather
12 March 2022 12:32:30


Wx summary charts reluctant to give up entirely the idea of milder air moving eastwards, but by comparison with two days ago, much more weakly, 0C isotherm only reaching St Petersburg by next week and still cold air hanging back over Norway and Ukraine. UK near norm at the moment but cooling slightly. Rain mainly persists over western UK and Spain and in week 2 further into the Med; the completely dry area shrinking so as to cover only Scandinavia.


Jet rather variable over the next two weeks; the broadest and strongest instances tending to be through Spain and the Med but with occasional narrower, weaker and temporary streaks between Iceland and Hebrides.


GFS op 0z: LP over SW Eire 975mb tomorrow splitting into two - the trough near Scotland soon fills but the other half moves down to Spain and settles there, and there is only weak E-ward penetration. The UK is then in a col between N Atlantic and Iberian LPs for a week; the weak ridge of HP which makes up the col resolves into an intense HP 1050mb Finland Sun 20th Mar, which leaves the UK under SE-lies. Another offshoot of the Atlantic LP then dives S to revive the Iberian LP which slowly moves NE, meaning that UK is under colder SE-lies, going round to NE-lies and LP in the N Sea Sun 27th.


GEFS: mild around Thu 17th, cool around Sun 23rd, after which less agreement between ens members; control back to norm at least in S but op remains cold. Rain from time to time, small amounts  in E, larger amounts in W.


ECM: Similar to GFS but with some differences in the Iberian LP; it's more persistent but less deep with the effect of bringing air from the Continent sooner (Fri 18th) and more consistently from the east


Originally Posted by: DEW 


With the critical and sensitive gardening season approaching your summary is much appreciated, especially in this difficult time for you.


Thank you.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 March 2022 07:38:13

Wx summary: temps slowly rising across Europe (incl UK) from the SW into week 2, in a steadier and more predictable fashion than previous forecasts. 0C isotherm now well back beyond Belarus. Drier weather occupying a larger area than shown yesterday; by week2 rain is basically in two bands, one between Scotland and Iceland across to Norway and the other through the Med.


Jet: loops all over the place at first but by Thu 17th matching the pattern of rainfall above


GFS Op: LP near W Eire splitting into two, one centre by the Hebrides on Mon  quickly filling, other generating a large but ill-defined centre over Spain (BBC showed this as separate development, not as a split). Ridge from Azores to Norway then develops, but LP over Spain receives reinforcements from Atlantic so by Sun 20th HP 1045mb Baltic opposed to LP all through the Med with some quite long-fetch E/SE-lies across Balkans to UK. Slow rise of pressure over W Europe cuts off the E-ly component and HP settles over UK 1025mb Sun 27th. (However a strong N-ly through Russia and Ukraine in last frame  Tue 29th)


GEFS : Mild around Thu 17th, cool Mon 21st, mean then back to norm but plenty of variations to choose from in ens members. A little bit of rain in the S, mostly later on, and rather more in the W/NW (though a brief extra spike in the E on the 17th)


ECM: similar to GFS at first but pressure remains higher to the W of the UK up to and past the 20th, just about linking with Baltic HP, so E-lies are less extensive and less strong


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
tallyho_83
13 March 2022 18:16:11
How come people are not discussing the models these days? Only Dew? No offense to Dew of course...just wondering? Is it model fatigue setting in?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Jiries
13 March 2022 19:39:04

How come people are not discussing the models these days? Only Dew? No offense to Dew of course...just wondering? Is it model fatigue setting in?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


No interesting weather coming up and take a look at Cyprus very interesting weather event and if we have this in here we would be buzzing at the models.   It will pick up if there any interest arise and most posts among with great contributor DEW just like Retron used to do before.

Super Cell
13 March 2022 20:16:49

How come people are not discussing the models these days? Only Dew? No offense to Dew of course...just wondering? Is it model fatigue setting in?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


Nothing going on, and unless I'm getting it wrong people are posting charts which you can't really see with no opportunity to click on and make larger. Of all the images posted on the web weather charts need to be actually read rather than be guessed at.


Farnley/Pudsey Leeds
40m asl

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