Be nice to see a covering 

For round 2 ICON is trying to push a very deep cold core low (south of Svalbard) south. Good chance it will never arrive, as soon as it hits warm water there will be massive cyclogenesis, but still. Some crazy cold air under that.

Ridiculously impressive, temps below -45C at the 500hpa level under it.

Yes the late April cold and dry weather last year really wiped out a lot of small nesting birds. Being a bit earlier this year hopefully they will be able to delay nesting.

Today's remarks are going to get overtaken by the 'Short term snow potential' thread, but here goes anyway ...

WX summary charts: for temp, the 'blue' area continues to shrink and by week 2 is definitely confined to the north - but it has a large area of moderately cold temps so all of W Europe is below average; the nearest area above average is around the Black Sea. As yesterday the narrow band of rain (maybe snow) from Pyrenees to Urals in week1 is replaced by a large area covering UK, France (quite intense in places) and Germany in week 2, and also some in Belarus. Unlike yesterday almost all of Europe has some pptn.

Jet in fits and starts mostly across S Europe for the next two weeks.

GFS op : HP declines and by Thu 31st LP over the Channel/France brings in NE-lies (see other thread for discussion of Spring snow) intensifying on Friday but being suppressed thereafter by Hp developing over Ireland 1025mb Sun 2nd which moves S and brings in NW-lies until Fri 8th. Then a brief a burst of weakish N-lies from that Scandinavian LP before the Atlantic fires up and LP pushes in from the W 970mb Bristol Channel Mon 11th, hanging around before moving slowly S-wards.

GEFS: big decline in temp in all ens members to min on Sat 2nd, then a matching rise back to norm Tue 5th. Mean then stays near norm but with big spread )op & control hanging back at first). Heavy rain/snow in S around 1st but less in N, dry-ish for a while, starting up again Fri 8th, a few days earlier in N. Snow row figures  uprated for Thu/Fri;  high teens in S, 20s for rest of England, 30s in Scotland but if the runs with the heaviest pptn apply, they'll combine with the temp for significant snowfall even S of the M4

ECM : similar to GFS though pressure gradients a bit lower so maybe not as windy esp Fri 1st from NE

Good news. Can't think of anything worse than another winter spell in April. Hopefully it'll Continue to downgrade to nothing.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if we had a covering Thursday morning 

Love snow......in winter. Not in mid spring.

With perfect timing, just as snow arrives, the MetO announce that the bar for declaring a heatwave will be raised by a degree over much of SE England. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60908169

I hadn't realised that the bar was set by reference to past average temps for an area and not an absolute value; so heatwaves in, say, Scotland are cooler than those in London.

Back to the daily review ...

Just about on my house slap bang on Moomin's house 

Just one comment on snow before looking further ahead, namely that although areas of snow move southwards as shown on e.g.https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx  even the most optimistic-for-snow models are not showing low enough temps for more than some wet stuff lying overnight Wed into Thu.

Temps generally over Europe cooler than yesterday with the 0C isotherm showing some resurgence, and warm temps further S retreating to the S side of the Med. Below norm remains the rule for NW Europe. Rain/snow pattern as yesterday with concentration in narrow band in week 1 from Alps to Urals though by no means dry elsewhere; week 2 less rain than previously with main area from Eire to Alps to Danube basin but N of this also not negligible.

Jet mostly active across S Europe, coherently around Tue 5th, more fragmented before and after, isolated streaks near UK coming and going

GFS op : brief E/NE-ly Thu 31st but LP causing it soon moves to Corsica and deepens there  taking the NE-lies with it while HP re-establishes over Ireland Sat 2nd with light N-lies for UK. That set-up persists for a few days before that LP over Scandi has another go bringing N/NW-ly from Wed 6th. Finally the Atlantic has another go, LPs moving in Sat 9th and Wed 13th but filling as they go and declining to shallow troughs over France and the N Sea respectively.

GEFS :big dip in temps bottoming out Fri 1st then with good agreement between ens members recovering to norm Wed 6th. After that mean remains near norm with considerable range of outcomes, op & control in E both cool Fri 8th and then warm Wed 10th. Heavy rain, maybe wet snow for S Thu 31st, dryish after that but more runs showing rain later on. Much the same for temps in N, not much rain in near future but building up more consistently from about Fri 8th. 

ECM: like GFS to Wed 6th but then no resurgence of LP from Scandi, just a spell of gentle W/NW-lies 

Some more of that purple snow to look forward to for some then!

Hey Neil,

Would you be able to free up a bit of space in your inbox so I can reply to your PM? 

Hey everyone. Hope we're all looking forward to the snow? Or NOT maybe? 

Summary charts: Winter returns with rather cold air for the time of year taking a step southwards and flooding Europe including UK down to the Alps and temps widely down to 4C below norm. Then just as swift a retreat in week 2 leaving only N Scandinavia and N Russia really cold, and warmth back to cover the Mediterranean. Distribution of rain still showing the heaviest in a band from France to Urals and damp elsewhere week 1 but changed again since yesterday for week 2 with wet weather from the Atlantic concentrated over UK, France, Germany and Baltic.

Jet active over the Med to start with transferring in fits and starts to southern UK around Sun 10th.

GFS op : The current N/NE spell intensifying Fri 1st with small LP over Belgium soon moving S-wards. A rather flabby HP takes over for the UK Sun 3rd before a week of generally W-ly zonal flow. Then a more active Atlantic brings in LP 980 mb Shetland with trough to England Sun 10th. Pressure then drops generally in a band from mid-Atlantic to Norway with more local centres embedded, Scotland at first, then Wales Fri 15th 990 mb.

GEFS : Sharp drop in temps to about 8C below norm Fri 1st; for England especially combined with pptn the previous day giving high snow row figures (30+ widely)though temps probably indicate only transient snow lying on low ground, more likely to lie on hills. Dry-ish as temps recover to norm around Wed 6th and then fairly good agreement between ens members for a mild week (most notably in the S)  but with substantial amounts of rain. Temps back to norm Wed 13th.

ECM : like GFS but the LP controlling the zonal flow from Sun 3rd is further S and affecting N Scotland rather than Iceland

Yes I read that and thought - eh? Surely it is about the effect of the heat on people, not the likelyhood of it happening. Crazy logic.

Just a guess but I assumed it's because it's not just how hot it gets but how used to heat you are. 7 days at 33c in the SE is unpleasant but temps around that level are commonplace these days so we're used to it and deal with it better, an equivalent spell in Ireland (like last year I think) is unusual and much warmer than both their normal temps and their usual maximum temps so more of a health risk. 

WX summary temps chart really shrinking the below-freezing area over the next 2 weeks back to N Scandinavia but moderately cold weather hanging on over most of Europe with temps below norm and even the warmth staying on the S side of the Med (yesterday it reached up to S Europe). For above average, go to the Black Sea/Caspian Sea. Week 1 pptn in an arc UK- S Germany- N Urals, in week 2 further S Eire - France - N Italy - Rumania

Jet quite strong through N Med to Sat 9th; when that fades a NW-ly trend develops past SW England into France 

GFS Op: existing NE-ly fades in favour of HP Ireland W of Ireland Sun 3rd which drifts S-wards and collapses with winds veering W-ly at first but then backing NE again by Fri 8th as the Scandi LP revives. Deep LP on Atlantic then gives strong S-lies before throwing out a trough across the UK Tue 12th from which a shallow Lp breaks off and traverses UK to Germany by Thu 14th

GEFS; presently cold recovering sharply to just above norm Mon 4th; dipping again (esp op & control in S/more generally in N) around Fri 8th before rather confused period with mean a little above norm (in S)/ at norm (in N) through to Sat 16th. Rain increasingly frequent from Mon 4th

ECM: Similar to GFS but the revived NE-ly is briefer and the following Atlantic LP is further to the NW; and a transient small LP appears 990mb W of Ireland before the (weaker by comparison with GFS) S flow begins

This is exactly correct in my understanding. Furthermore, people are more prepared for such temperatures in the southeast.

Anecdotally, I now have two portable A/C units.  All my clients have upped their preparations. Two now have full home integrated A/C.

Yep indeed 

Summary charts show the 0C isotherm shrunk and well to the N by week 2, just a bit over Norwegian mountains and also the very far NE. Europe as a whole much milder though UK hanging back a bit on this and warmth beginning to spread across the Med. Europe as a whole rather wet in week 1 but patchy; week 2 more confined to UK and W Europe.

GFS op: HP appearing SW of Ireland Sun 3rd but not lasting with a further appearance of LP from Scandi, NW-lies at first but deep LP in N Sea Thu 7th 975mb with strong cold NE-lies back again for a couple of days. By Sun 10th UK in col between filling LP Scandi and Atlantic LP developing and covering UK with a shallow trough Tue 12th. Finally HP appears from the SW 1030mb Sat 16th across all Uk and warmer.

 GEFS: roller-coaster - cold now,  back to norm Tue 5th for a couple of days (perhaps only 1 day in N) then cold again Fri 8th then mild again Sat 10th after which ens members differ, mean near norm, op & control cool in S but mild in N, most members mild. Rain in small amounts in SE, rather more in N & W, continuously from Tue 5th. 

ECM: broadly similar to GFS though the LP Thu 7th is part of a trough extending further W meaning that the NE-lies are less potent but take a day longer to clear

First Spanish plume!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref