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So when do we officially consider this hot spell to begin?My benchmark has generally been somewhere breaching 28C. We’re nowhere near so far this week - nothing above 24C. Could happen on Friday, or at a push and with a following wind (and less cloud than forecast) Thursday. Quite an unusual heatwave where we don’t know if in only 4 or 5 days it will be 30C or mid 20s, but we kind of know it’s likely to be in the 30s in over a week’s time.
Originally Posted by: TimS
Probably as early as Saturday TBF
30c knocking on the door for many places by then.
It remains on, despite this morning’s GFS op. And this morning’s GFS op doesn’t stint on the European heat either, it just displaces it. Southern Iberia gets to 45+ this weekend and then sticks with it every day until 384 hours, peaking at 50C. Unprecedented.All other op runs showing heatwave conditions for the UK. Only question is whether we threaten records.
At the moment it is looking likley the uk will get 2 or 3 days at most of extreme heat,very similar to what happened mid June. It certainly does not look as if it is going to last,thank god! As with the models in winter overcooking the cold iam awaiting the inevitable downgrades wef this weekend. My bet is somewhere will hit 35c-36c on one day but to get 40c in this country we need a prolonged spell of heat beforehand.It might happen but very unlikley imo.
Originally Posted by: springsunshine
Well this morning's 06z GFS gives us one day of 41C. And I would say the op was a disappointment/downgrade. A downgrade that gives the UK 41C is quite something.
Ideal for me would be at least a week of 28-32C and then one extremely hot day, or 2 at a push.
Some interesting facts about the highest recorded temps in each of the European states:
Highest temperatures in Europe: A map and list of records • viborc.com
A good chunk of them have recorded 40c or more in the past, even in the 'near continent' regions, but Greece contunes to hold onto the the top spot with its 48c that was recorded in Athens
Another 39C in this evening's GFS, though GEM looks like it would peak lower. Meanwhile the 40s start in Southern Iberia. 41C tomorrow, then it's up from there: 44, 46, 45, 45, 45, 48, 48, 45, 42
A good chance of the all time Spanish record going I'd think. For reference it's 47.4c recorded just last August.
Originally Posted by: scillydave
And the Portuguese record also of 47.4C set way back in 2003.
The timing and peaks of this look like being uncannily like August 2003, but 2 days in advance, so it's worth running a day by day comparison. Yesterday was Friday 1 August - cloudy, with a high of 25C in the far SE (Manston that year if I recall). Today is Saturday 2nd August when in 2003 it reached 27C. We hit 30C on the Sunday.
Arome is now in view and gives maxima of 26 or possibly 27C today, and 29-30C tomorrow.
Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea
Since that article was written, Italy took over the top spot - see the updates near the top.
The European record is now 48.8C in Syracuse, Sicily, on August 11 2021.
Met Office longer range forecasts have downplayed the heat somewhat, saying just "possibly hot".Quite telling that.
Met Office longer range forecasts have dropped all reference to the word "hot".Very telling that.
Originally Posted by: moomin75
”
Fine and dry across the bulk of the UK next week with plenty of sunshine. Feeling warm or very warm, potentially hot at times for central, southern and eastern parts of the UK, particularly at the start of next week.
Thursday 21 Jul - Thursday 4 Aug
Temperatures widely above average initially, especially across the south, and potentially very warm or hot at times, most likely for England and Wales.“
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk
Originally Posted by: doctormog
Yesterday the word "potentially" wasn't in there IIRC.
Anyway, it's all semantics. 32c is plenty hot enough foe anyone.
Check my edit. They've downplayed it to potentially hot.
That is yesterday’s forecast. Today’s update has not been published yet.
Tuesday looks very hot to me
Originally Posted by: ballamar
Yes the GFS 6z has 32c Tuesday and looks like 35c in Kent on Wednesday and 33c Thursday.
GFS 6z uk max temps from tmrw.
29c, 27c, 29c, 30c, 32c, 35c, 33c, 28c, 32c, 38c, 35c, 29c, 25c, 28c, 30c.
29c, 27c, 29c, 30c, 32c, 35c, 33c, 28c, 32c, 38c, 35c.
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
Compare with Aug 2003 starting from Saturday 2nd:
27, 30, 33, 34, 36, 32, 32, 36, 38, 33, 32
2003 wins overall, but not by that much.
Wow forgotten how impressive that was.