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White Meadows
05 July 2022 21:51:28

So when do we officially consider this hot spell to begin?

My benchmark has generally been somewhere breaching 28C. We’re nowhere near so far this week - nothing above 24C. Could happen on Friday, or at a push and with a following wind (and less cloud than forecast) Thursday.

Quite an unusual heatwave where we don’t know if in only 4 or 5 days it will be 30C or mid 20s, but we kind of know it’s likely to be in the 30s in over a week’s time.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Probably as early as Saturday TBF


30c knocking on the door for many places by then. 


 

TimS
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06 July 2022 07:29:13

It remains on, despite this morning’s GFS op.

And this morning’s GFS op doesn’t stint on the European heat either, it just displaces it. Southern Iberia gets to 45+ this weekend and then sticks with it every day until 384 hours, peaking at 50C. Unprecedented.

All other op runs showing heatwave conditions for the UK. Only question is whether we threaten records.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
springsunshine
06 July 2022 10:34:03

At the moment it is looking likley the uk will get 2 or 3 days at most of extreme heat,very similar to what happened mid June. It certainly does not look as if it is going to last,thank god! As with the models in winter overcooking the cold iam awaiting the inevitable downgrades wef this weekend. My bet is somewhere will hit 35c-36c on one day but to get 40c in this country we need a prolonged spell of heat beforehand.It might happen but very unlikley imo.

TimS
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06 July 2022 11:05:21


At the moment it is looking likley the uk will get 2 or 3 days at most of extreme heat,very similar to what happened mid June. It certainly does not look as if it is going to last,thank god! As with the models in winter overcooking the cold iam awaiting the inevitable downgrades wef this weekend. My bet is somewhere will hit 35c-36c on one day but to get 40c in this country we need a prolonged spell of heat beforehand.It might happen but very unlikley imo.


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


Well this morning's 06z GFS gives us one day of 41C. And I would say the op was a disappointment/downgrade. A downgrade that gives the UK 41C is quite something.


Ideal for me would be at least a week of 28-32C and then one extremely hot day, or 2 at a push.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Chunky Pea
06 July 2022 16:03:30

Some interesting facts about the highest recorded temps in each of the European states:


Highest temperatures in Europe: A map and list of records • viborc.com


A good chunk of them have recorded 40c or more in the past, even in the 'near continent' regions, but Greece contunes to hold onto the the top spot with its 48c that was recorded in Athens 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
TimS
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06 July 2022 16:30:17
While we wait, worth monitoring where’s hot in Europe right now.

Current continental hotspot, with a mere 40C, is Kryvyi Ri airport in Ukraine, near Dnipro.

Next few days it’s going to be Spain.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
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06 July 2022 17:24:10

Another 39C in this evening's GFS, though GEM looks like it would peak lower. Meanwhile the 40s start in Southern Iberia. 41C tomorrow, then it's up from there: 44, 46, 45, 45, 45, 48, 48, 45, 42 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
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06 July 2022 19:05:08
The Beeb are finally getting off the fence. Schafernaker just said it’ll probably be above 30 in the South all next week.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
scillydave
06 July 2022 19:05:48
A good chance of the all time Spanish record going I'd think. For reference it's 47.4c recorded just last August.

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
TimS
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06 July 2022 19:09:00

A good chance of the all time Spanish record going I'd think. For reference it's 47.4c recorded just last August.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 


And the Portuguese record also of 47.4C set way back in 2003.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
nsrobins
06 July 2022 21:51:16
Some consolidation now for a few days of extreme heat later next week as we tap into the heat dome across Spain and France.
Not certain of course, but the all-time could be under threat.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Crepuscular Ray
07 July 2022 05:55:57
A bit of hysteria from the model generators I feel! Looks to me like at least a week of fine warm or hot weather for the south and east of Scotland & England, 25 - 32 C.
For the Pennine areas, Cumbria and Western Scotland more cloud at times with drizzly rain 15 - 20 C


Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
TimS
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07 July 2022 08:27:25

The timing and peaks of this look like being uncannily like August 2003, but 2 days in advance, so it's worth running a day by day comparison. Yesterday was Friday 1 August - cloudy, with a high of 25C in the far SE (Manston that year if I recall). Today is Saturday 2nd August when in 2003 it reached 27C. We hit 30C on the Sunday.  


Arome is now in view and gives maxima of 26 or possibly 27C today, and 29-30C tomorrow.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
07 July 2022 09:12:58


Some interesting facts about the highest recorded temps in each of the European states:


Highest temperatures in Europe: A map and list of records • viborc.com


A good chunk of them have recorded 40c or more in the past, even in the 'near continent' regions, but Greece contunes to hold onto the the top spot with its 48c that was recorded in Athens 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Since that article was written, Italy took over the top spot - see the updates near the top.


The European record is now 48.8C in Syracuse, Sicily, on August 11 2021.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
07 July 2022 09:14:23

Met Office longer range forecasts have downplayed the heat somewhat, saying just "possibly hot".
Quite telling that.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
07 July 2022 09:16:42

Met Office longer range forecasts have dropped all reference to the word "hot".
Very telling that.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Monday 11 Jul - Wednesday 20 Jul



Fine and dry across the bulk of the UK next week with plenty of sunshine. Feeling warm or very warm, potentially hot at times for central, southern and eastern parts of the UK, particularly at the start of next week.


Thursday 21 Jul - Thursday 4 Aug


Temperatures widely above average initially, especially across the south, and potentially very warm or hot at times, most likely for England and Wales.“


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk 



moomin75
07 July 2022 09:18:29


 



Monday 11 Jul - Wednesday 20 Jul



Fine and dry across the bulk of the UK next week with plenty of sunshine. Feeling warm or very warm, potentially hot at times for central, southern and eastern parts of the UK, particularly at the start of next week.


Thursday 21 Jul - Thursday 4 Aug


Temperatures widely above average initially, especially across the south, and potentially very warm or hot at times, most likely for England and Wales.“


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk 



Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Check my edit. They've downplayed it to potentially hot.


Yesterday the word "potentially" wasn't in there IIRC.


Anyway, it's all semantics. 32c is plenty hot enough foe anyone.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
07 July 2022 09:20:30


Check my edit. They've downplayed it to potentially hot.


Yesterday the word "potentially" wasn't in there IIRC.


Anyway, it's all semantics. 32c is plenty hot enough foe anyone.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


That is yesterday’s forecast. Today’s update has not been published yet.


ballamar
07 July 2022 10:35:31
Tuesday looks very hot to me
Ally Pally Snowman
07 July 2022 10:43:47

Tuesday looks very hot to me

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Yes  the GFS 6z has 32c Tuesday and looks like 35c in Kent on Wednesday and 33c Thursday.  


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
07 July 2022 11:10:20

GFS 6z uk max temps from tmrw. 


29c, 27c, 29c, 30c, 32c, 35c, 33c, 28c, 32c, 38c, 35c, 29c, 25c, 28c, 30c.


 


 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
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07 July 2022 11:24:30


GFS 6z uk max temps from tmrw. 


29c, 27c, 29c, 30c, 32c, 35c, 33c, 28c, 32c, 38c, 35c.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Compare with Aug 2003 starting from Saturday 2nd:


27, 30, 33, 34, 36, 32, 32, 36, 38, 33, 32


2003 wins overall, but not by that much.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
07 July 2022 11:28:12


 


Compare with Aug 2003 starting from Saturday 2nd:


27, 30, 33, 34, 36, 32, 32, 36, 38, 33, 32


2003 wins overall, but not by that much.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


Wow forgotten how impressive that was. 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
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07 July 2022 12:43:34
Nice thread from Simon Lee

https://simonleewx.com/2022/07/06/40c-in-the-uk/ 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
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07 July 2022 19:51:38
Feels like the first evening of the heatwave here in SE London. 25C at the closest PWS at 8.50, 6C warmer than the same site at 2pm.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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