Looking further afield, WX continues with extreme heat for France and S England (and rather warm for Scotland too) while Poland and points east are cooler, with some extreme heat near the Caspian. In week 2, the solidly hot area over W Europe begins to break up with patches of ordinary warmth down through France to the Alps. At the same time heat spreads N to Finiland and the ultra-hot area expands markedly from the Caspian to include N of the Black Sea. Rain in week 1 is still in the very far north, very dry for Britain, but in week 2 moves S with heavy pptn for Scotland and down through the N Sea plus a few patches in C Europe,
GFS OP - HP ridging across from the SW as far as Norway, the ridge moving N-wards and by Sunday 14th up to Shetland, with LP from France affecting S England (certainly bringing in the heat - thunderstorms seem unlikely) Then a sudden turnaround with rapid development of LP from Iceland to 985mb Shetland Tue 16th and N-lies for all becoming a trough down the NSea Thu 18th. After this decays into a spell of W-lies, a new LP from the Atlantic runs NE-wards past Scotland on Mon 24th. The hurricane shown in the W Atlntic on yesterday's chart has disappeared on today's.
GEFS - Max temps reached about Sat 13th, 9C above norm for the S (day-night average just below 20C, any other year this would be headline stuff) followed by quite a rapid decline to norm Wed 17th and continuing below for mean and control; though op stages a strong recovery Mon 24th, it's out on its own. Rain in the S in more ens members than previously from Sat 13th though still not a lot. for Scotland, not as hot (6C above norm) and more rain than further S, still not an exceptional amount.
ECM - similar to GFS though LP Sun 14th is further to SW (so less likely to import heat?) and that on Tue 16th is not as deep
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl