Certainly, an increased risk of Thunderstorms in the South as pressure falls at the weekend.

ECM and GEM looking much more unsettled than GFS with thunderstorm risk

The long term ensemble SLP has taken a bit of a dip in recent runs though it still hangs around 1015hPa which isn’t bad for August.

ECM ends with a plume

Darren Bett in the weather for the week ahead had a 36C slap bang over central southern England for Friday.

This is certainly looking like the best spell of August weather since 2003.

Control is better

The heat keeps coming and going in successive forecasts. Yesterday the charts were suggesting a breakdown in week 2 with cooler weather and some rain for Britain in week 2 - but that was then ...and now?

WX summary shows week 1 hot for S England, fairly warm for Scotland, and for anything even close to average for the time of year you have to look well to the east, and even there it's warm. In week 2, yesterday's cooler weather in parts of W Europe is not confirmed; it's solidly hot on a W-E line from N France to the mid-Urals. S England gets just a taste of this;  the push northwards of hot weather into Finland has been scaled back; and it's not quite so dramatically hot around the Black Sea & Caspian. Rain in week 1 in the very far N (Iceland - N Norway) moves as far south as N-England - S Sweden while the ultra-dry weather retreats to France.

BBC forecast this morning hinting at thundery showers for England at the weekend - but only tentative

GFS Op - HP ridging across Britain for this week, being slowly pushed N-wards by LP moving up from France at the weekend (hence the BBC suggestion though I don't know where the moisture is to come from). A general drop in pressure Thu 18th with fresher W-ly or NW-ly though not the deep LP and N-lies shown yesterday. HP then re-establishes over Britain, ridging N to Iceland by Wed 24th.

GEFS - peak temps Sat/Sun 13/14th (8C above norm for S, less hot in N and a day or two earlier) dropping quite sharply to norm by Wed 17th and staying there with quite good agreement throughout between ens members. More runs showing some rain in the S from Mon 15th, though not consistent nor very much of it; in the N starting at the same date and some quite large totals in some runs.

ECM - still fancies N-lies for Tue 16th translating to W-lies on Thu 18th as above

Big changes in the overnight output.

For better or worse, Brian?

There seem to be suggestions now of a more unsettled interlude next week in some runs, but next week is a long way off just now.

 I have not looked at anything other than automated BBC and met Office this morning and both have changed from 5a.m to now showing showers from Sunday onwards

Still not much rain out to day 10 on the GFS for those that need it.

ECM 00z has 60mm of rain in parts of East Anglia at t+10 days.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx?run=00&charthour=240&chartname=total_precip_uk&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20total

Be surprised if that verified.

Why, you ask?

Because I have my first holiday in a year next week and you can always guarantee, even in a drought, that it will pour with rain, wherever I go!  And that area is literally precisely where I am heading to!

😅😅😅

Breakdown on all the models, but whether its a wet one or just a transition to a dry north westerly for the South remains to be seen

And 2mm here. 

Meanwhile the 0Z GFS has the temperature reaching 25C or above every single day for the entire run, and eight 30C+.

But plenty for those who don't 

Always the way!

Why worried about breakdown stuff so best to get your sun lounger out and enjoy what we get because it not often we get this set-up that last long enough.

Indeed Jiries,  this is about as prolonged as you can get for a hot spell in the UK.

GFS and ICON 06z so far similar to last couple of runs. I think the pattern is set now. Warm and sunny up to the weekend, very hot Friday-Sunday, then some form of pressure drop and breakdown.

Not much rain getting into the south on the 06z