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Ally Pally Snowman
07 August 2022 05:44:45


A bit further afield, it's weird to see both the Beeb and MetO websites blithely forecasting 35C+ for Heathrow at the end of the week (the ECM ensembles are rock-solid too), without much of a frenzy going on in the media. This summer is the equivalent of hitting -30C in winter, then having a spell of -25C weather a couple of weeks later... truly exceptional stuff.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Indeed BBC now has 8 30c + days for Heathrow. 


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bbc.com/weather/2647216&ved=2ahUKEwj52JOjgLT5AhVCg1wKHQIOCsYQFnoECAYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2YU19ovP65L45MG-kkbA0C


Met office now going for 36c , 100f definitely possible probably further west. 


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpsvg3nc&ved=2ahUKEwjalYHwgLT5AhXBlFwKHWLjBXsQFnoECA8QAQ&usg=AOvVaw3JgXsDJCgyInQuR8OANlW-


As you say little hype in the media must our normal summer weather now😄


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
07 August 2022 06:25:24


 


Indeed BBC now has 8 30c + days for Heathrow. 


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bbc.com/weather/2647216&ved=2ahUKEwj52JOjgLT5AhVCg1wKHQIOCsYQFnoECAYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2YU19ovP65L45MG-kkbA0C


Met office now going for 36c , 100f definitely possible probably further west. 


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpsvg3nc&ved=2ahUKEwjalYHwgLT5AhXBlFwKHWLjBXsQFnoECA8QAQ&usg=AOvVaw3JgXsDJCgyInQuR8OANlW-


As you say little hype in the media must our normal summer weather now😄


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I notice the apps this morning upgrade to 34C here on Saturday and 33C in Letchworth where my brother live, Epsom and London that why no need to move to SE as the Midlands does very well with high temperatures providing it sunny which is the most important factor. 


Agreed and this time no forecasters get abused hopefully, they are just doing their jobs to earn a living like us.

Sevendust
07 August 2022 06:29:05


Indeed BBC now has 8 30c + days for Heathrow. 


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bbc.com/weather/2647216&ved=2ahUKEwj52JOjgLT5AhVCg1wKHQIOCsYQFnoECAYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2YU19ovP65L45MG-kkbA0C


Met office now going for 36c , 100f definitely possible probably further west. 


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpsvg3nc&ved=2ahUKEwjalYHwgLT5AhXBlFwKHWLjBXsQFnoECA8QAQ&usg=AOvVaw3JgXsDJCgyInQuR8OANlW-


As you say little hype in the media must be our normal summer weather now😄


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Which was the point I made in reply to Matty yesterday. I think it tells you all you need to know about those charlatans 


I've traditionally worked on the basis that 32'c was noteworthy and 35'c exceptional 

Rob K
07 August 2022 06:57:12


 


Indeed BBC now has 8 30c + days for Heathrow. 


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bbc.com/weather/2647216&ved=2ahUKEwj52JOjgLT5AhVCg1wKHQIOCsYQFnoECAYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2YU19ovP65L45MG-kkbA0C


Met office now going for 36c , 100f definitely possible probably further west. 


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpsvg3nc&ved=2ahUKEwjalYHwgLT5AhXBlFwKHWLjBXsQFnoECA8QAQ&usg=AOvVaw3JgXsDJCgyInQuR8OANlW-


As you say little hype in the media must our normal summer weather now😄


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Yes they’ve “done” their heatwave story now, that’s old news!


 


GFS goes for another burst of 20C uppers in two weeks’ time as well. The heat just keeps coming back like a zombie. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2022 07:06:07

Looking further afield, WX continues with extreme heat for France and S England (and rather warm for Scotland too) while Poland and points east are cooler, with some extreme heat near the Caspian. In week 2, the solidly hot area over W Europe begins to break up with patches of ordinary warmth down through France to the Alps. At the same time heat spreads N to Finiland and the ultra-hot area expands markedly from the Caspian to include N of the Black Sea. Rain in week 1 is still in the very far north, very dry for Britain, but in week 2 moves S with heavy pptn for Scotland and down through the N Sea plus a few patches in C Europe,


GFS OP - HP ridging across from the SW as far as Norway, the ridge moving N-wards and by Sunday 14th up to Shetland, with LP from France affecting S England (certainly bringing in the heat - thunderstorms seem unlikely) Then a sudden turnaround with rapid development of LP from Iceland to 985mb Shetland Tue 16th and N-lies for all becoming a trough down the NSea Thu 18th. After this decays into a spell of W-lies, a new LP from the Atlantic runs NE-wards past Scotland on Mon 24th. The hurricane shown in the W Atlntic on yesterday's chart has disappeared on today's.


GEFS - Max temps reached about Sat 13th, 9C above norm for the S (day-night average just below 20C, any other year this would be headline stuff) followed by quite a rapid decline to norm Wed 17th and continuing below for mean and control; though op stages a strong recovery Mon 24th, it's out on its own. Rain in the S in more ens members than previously from Sat 13th though still not a lot. for Scotland, not as hot (6C above norm) and more rain than further S, still not an exceptional amount.


ECM - similar to GFS though LP Sun 14th is further to SW (so less likely to import heat?) and that on Tue 16th is not as deep


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Tim A
07 August 2022 07:29:46


 


Indeed BBC now has 8 30c + days for Heathrow. 


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bbc.com/weather/2647216&ved=2ahUKEwj52JOjgLT5AhVCg1wKHQIOCsYQFnoECAYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2YU19ovP65L45MG-kkbA0C


Met office now going for 36c , 100f definitely possible probably further west. 


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpsvg3nc&ved=2ahUKEwjalYHwgLT5AhXBlFwKHWLjBXsQFnoECA8QAQ&usg=AOvVaw3JgXsDJCgyInQuR8OANlW-


As you say little hype in the media must our normal summer weather now😄


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I need to write to the Met Office to find out why  some locations (seems to be with weather stations) show as a few degrees warmer than towns/cities. Heathrow is one example but there are so many more.


Today Odiham showing as 34c at day 6 and 7 and Fleet and Basingstoke at 31c. 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
The Beast from the East
07 August 2022 07:56:58

Looks like the drought is going to be broken after next weekend, could that be it for summer?


Hosepipe bans looking a bit premature perhaps


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Ally Pally Snowman
07 August 2022 08:19:27

Not much rain on the GFS though Beast. 


 



 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
07 August 2022 08:21:16

Most prolonged heat of the Summer on the way.


 


Chart image


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
UncleAlbert
07 August 2022 08:28:51
During 1976......... well yes during 1976 many will remember the appointment of Dennis Howell as drought minister. He then took on the mantle of witch doctor as the UK was almost immediately swamped by
monsoon like conditions that prevailed for many weeks. Not sure if BJ would be able to install ministers at this stage though so the new PM may be thinking about it if no substantial rain by September!
Rob K
07 August 2022 08:40:29


Not much rain on the GFS though Beast. 


 



 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Would be nice if the rain can wait until my holiday is over and there’s a roof on my extension. Then we can have a deluge or two!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Sevendust
07 August 2022 09:43:50


Looks like the drought is going to be broken after next weekend, could that be it for summer?


Hosepipe bans looking a bit premature perhaps


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Hi Moomin


Can't see a significant pattern change to wet. Movement of HP may affect temps but no sign of widespread rain, if any

Brian Gaze
07 August 2022 09:57:34
Still looks like one of the best spells of summer weather ever recorded in the UK.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Osprey
07 August 2022 10:00:27

During 1976......... well yes during 1976 many will remember the appointment of Dennis Howell as drought minister. He then took on the mantle of witch doctor as the UK was almost immediately swamped by
monsoon like conditions that prevailed for many weeks. Not sure if BJ would be able to install ministers at this stage though so the new PM may be thinking about it if no substantial rain by September!

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 


It was quite a joke after he was appointed when the heavens opened up. In 76 we were in the final


throes of constructing a fire station, and that evening the warm summer weather finally broke, a long


wall which was the section constructed to house the fire tenders was blown over and mangled


the scaffolding, hence the layoffs that were expected were put on hold as we had an extra couple of


weeks more work to rebuild the wall with a couple of extra pillars installed... of course there was egg


on the architect and structural engineers face, which of course as you would expect the trades to


took extra delight from this... Poor buggers... Cushty!


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Downpour
07 August 2022 10:08:24
Lord (Dennis) Howell was probably the most successful politician of all time: he had the almost unique quality among government ministers of achieving exactly what he was appointed to do.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
cultman1
07 August 2022 10:35:44

Still looks like one of the best spells of summer weather ever recorded in the UK.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

indeed I totally concur and on the BBC radio 4  weather this morning the forecaster implied this fine spell of weather will go on for at least 10 days with no end in sight due to a very large stubborn area of high pressure in situ.

Gavin D
07 August 2022 10:41:38

100F somewhere in the south again later next week is very possible, given the tendency to underestimate maxes


moomin75
07 August 2022 11:17:16


 


Hi Moomin


Can't see a significant pattern change to wet. Movement of HP may affect temps but no sign of widespread rain, if any


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Harsh! 😅


I am on board with it being dry now, even in rain sodden Witney.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Crepuscular Ray
07 August 2022 11:45:23

Still looks like one of the best spells of summer weather ever recorded in the UK.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


In southern and eastern parts 😉


Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Crepuscular Ray
07 August 2022 11:47:05


100F somewhere in the south again later next week is very possible, given the tendency to underestimate maxes



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Fingers crossed! That even has a 25 C here 😃


Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Rob K
07 August 2022 11:48:25


indeed I totally concur and on the BBC radio 4  weather this morning the forecaster implied this fine spell of weather will go on for at least 10 days with no end in sight due to a very large stubborn area of high pressure in situ.


Originally Posted by: cultman1 


That seems unusually bullish. 7 days yes, but around the 14th-15th seems to be the well  signalled transition day to less settled stuff. Having said that, we could see it pushed back as happened with the heatwave in July which ended up arriving a couple of days later than originally signalled.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2022 17:21:03
GFS 12z similar to last few runs in warming up to Sunday/Monday then getting a NW incursion and a bit of low pressure later. Max 36C.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
07 August 2022 17:24:46

GFS 12z pretty much hot all the way. 14 days 29+ , 12 over 30c, 5 over 35c.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
07 August 2022 17:26:42


GFS 12z pretty much hot all the way. 14 days 29+ , 12 over 30c, 5 over 35c.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

And, more importantly, almost completely dry in rain starved areas.


Some serious fire risks will be present.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Jiries
07 August 2022 18:14:02


And, more importantly, almost completely dry in rain starved areas.


Some serious fire risks will be present.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I notice no one here doing BBQ as before in poor summers we had burst of BBQ smell every time we get warm to hot sunny weather for a day or 2, now we having prolonged and not a single sniff of it so that show everyone taking precaution not to use it.  I wonder if this year will beat 1995 because it reached 35C once on 1st August then rest high 20's to low 30's at times.  August shaping up the best summer month out of 3 this time.   

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