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doctormog
11 August 2022 13:31:35


Wonder if we'll get wet weather when the kids go back?


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


We’ll find out next week in Scotland.


Hungry Tiger
11 August 2022 14:11:39

Stay on topic everyone please - I've just deleted a post from here.


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Saint Snow
11 August 2022 14:20:02


Wonder if we'll get wet weather when the kids go back?


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


 




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Zubzero
11 August 2022 15:31:43


 


It doesn't look like an outlier in any way to me. Very representative of the mean.


I feel we need to accept that the end is nigh on this unbelievable spell of weather. 


Mother Nature is about to start making up the rainfall deficit (as she always does).


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Er no she don't. You have been on this forum long enough to know the weather/climate don't work like that.


Here is the precipitation table from the 06z GEFS. Imby


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=308&y=102&run=6&ext=1&mode=3&sort=0


Massive washout I'm building a boat as I type. 

Tim A
11 August 2022 16:23:01
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_162_18.png 

Not really much rain at all for many up to 162 hours on GFS.

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Brian Gaze
11 August 2022 17:15:01

Washout nailed on apparently. 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
moomin75
11 August 2022 17:29:11


Washout nailed on apparently. 



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

One run Brian! 😅


OK, I'll get my coat (or should that be my galoshers).


Shame IDJ isn't still about, I need my ark.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Downpour
11 August 2022 17:52:29
This epic washout summer just gets drier and drier
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Jiries
11 August 2022 18:02:11

This epic washout summer just gets drier and drier

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


It really down to France to end the heat but with on-going heat will not let the rain happen and get downgraded.  Rain will return when France back down the heat that had been around since May.  34.6C here today under super dry air and very comfortable without a sweat.

The Beast from the East
11 August 2022 18:06:08

This epic washout summer just gets drier and drier

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


Wed next week should see some proper showers in the south, and then cooler, will feel autumnal compared to what we have now.  


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Downpour
11 August 2022 18:22:12


 


Wed next week should see some proper showers in the south, and then cooler, will feel autumnal compared to what we have now.  


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Raw output looking at something like 22c at six day range. Hardly autumnal and in any case a million miles away in terms of forecasting. I actually want the rain. But I’ll believe it when I see it. 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
Ally Pally Snowman
11 August 2022 18:56:18

Significant high pressure at the end of the ECM tonight.  And hot again 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
11 August 2022 19:00:15


Significant high pressure at the end of the ECM tonight.  And hot again 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Need to see if its an outlier but second op in a row that doesnt have much rain 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
moomin75
11 August 2022 19:00:28


Significant high pressure at the end of the ECM tonight.  And hot again 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes, looks ok, but expect it'll be an outlier this time.


It is, however, not looking quite as wet as it was this time yesterday. 


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
11 August 2022 19:10:18


Yes, looks ok, but expect it'll be an outlier this time.


It is, however, not looking quite as wet as it was this time yesterday. 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


The long ranger has high pressure final week of August so it could be on to something.  


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
bledur
11 August 2022 19:17:57


 


The long ranger has high pressure final week of August so it could be on to something.  


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 That is what the Met Office says but it won't last long before turning unsettled again.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
11 August 2022 19:29:58
GFS op is yet again a low pressure outlier.

In my bones I feel we’re due one more ridge this summer.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
cultman1
11 August 2022 19:34:54

Here in Fulham it is currently breezy with a strong Easterly breeze and currently 25 degrees…it certainly does not feel hot or humid as at 8.30pm on 11th August 


I think the 4 day heatwave modelled by The Met Office in our part of the country may not measure up to the projected highs they are currently forecasting until Sunday of course time will tell ….


 

Brian Gaze
11 August 2022 19:52:13


Here in Fulham it is currently breezy with a strong Easterly breeze and currently 25 degrees…it certainly does not feel hot or humid as at 8.30pm on 11th August 


I think the 4 day heatwave modelled by The Met Office in our part of the country may not measure up to the projected highs they are currently forecasting until Sunday of course time will tell ….


 


Originally Posted by: cultman1 


Looks like we got to ~33C today. Not sure what the Met were saying, but that looks to be slap bang inline with what the models suggested? 35C to 37C tops this weekend looks reasonable still I think.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
moomin75
11 August 2022 19:52:57


 


The long ranger has high pressure final week of August so it could be on to something.  


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

As expected, it is a fairly big outlier at the end.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Brian Gaze
11 August 2022 20:02:04

MOGREPS looks quite dry too.


I can't embed the rain data table directly, but the London link is 


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/mogreps-tables.aspx?run=12&fv=lsrratesfc&loc=london&lat=51&lon=0&p=&cty=


 


 


 




Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
11 August 2022 20:02:23


As expected, it is a fairly big outlier at the end.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


As SJV says ECM definitely has pressure on the way up later on. Reasons to be optimistic tonight. 


https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=315&y=144&run=12&type=11&runpara=0


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
11 August 2022 20:32:28


 


Looks like we got to ~33C today. Not sure what the Met were saying, but that looks to be slap bang inline with what the models suggested? 35C to 37C tops this weekend looks reasonable still I think.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The max was 34.2 AFAIK and several stations broke 33. I think GFS had a 34 grid point today so more or lees bang on. The maxima have been dialled back a degree or two for Sunday, with Saturday now looking like the hottest day with 36 or possibly 37. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
11 August 2022 20:34:49


 


The max was 34.2 AFAIK and several stations broke 33. I think GFS had a 34 grid point today so more or lees bang on. The maxima have been dialled back a degree or two for Sunday, with Saturday now looking like the hottest day with 36 or possibly 37. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 I noticed that after I'd posted.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
MBrothers
11 August 2022 20:39:01
This feels a much different heat to earlier in the summer. Much dryer and less humid.

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