theweatheroutlook

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Chunky Pea
11 August 2022 20:56:40


Here in Fulham it is currently breezy with a strong Easterly breeze and currently 25 degrees…it certainly does not feel hot or humid as at 8.30pm on 11th August 


I think the 4 day heatwave modelled by The Met Office in our part of the country may not measure up to the projected highs they are currently forecasting until Sunday of course time will tell ….


 


Originally Posted by: cultman1 


The blueness of the sky the last few days has been amazing, which does indicate very low humidity in the middle and upper atmosphere.

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

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Caz
  • Caz
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11 August 2022 20:59:03


 


The max was 34.2 AFAIK and several stations broke 33. I think GFS had a 34 grid point today so more or lees bang on. The maxima have been dialled back a degree or two for Sunday, with Saturday now looking like the hottest day with 36 or possibly 37. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 I think this summer has been modelled really well in general!  The heatwaves have been picked up pretty early.

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
11 August 2022 21:01:54

This feels a much different heat to earlier in the summer. Much dryer and less humid.

Originally Posted by: MBrothers 


The July heatwave actually had extremely low humidity. Just shows what deep blue sky does for the feel of the weather.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Chunky Pea
11 August 2022 21:16:49
The look and feels of the sunshine and sky today is something I'd more associate with May or early June.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Brian Gaze
11 August 2022 21:18:11

Looks like a few blowtorch runs appearing in the last third of August.


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Gandalf The White
11 August 2022 21:25:53

The look and feels of the sunshine and sky today is something I'd more associate with May or early June.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


The position of the sun in the sky is the same as it is at the start of May, so that would be about right (we are 51 days away from the Summer Solstice now, which would be May 2)

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
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MBrothers
11 August 2022 21:35:36


 


The position of the sun in the sky is the same as it is at the start of May, so that would be about right (we are 51 days away from the Summer Solstice now, which would be May 2)


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

that makes sense

Chunky Pea
11 August 2022 21:37:42


 


The position of the sun in the sky is the same as it is at the start of May, so that would be about right (we are 51 days away from the Summer Solstice now, which would be May 2)


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


It is one of those rare treats of days where you could look up in the direction of the sun and still see blue, and not the usual blinding white light. I'd love if the temps were about 10 degrees cooler, but the whole look of the current spell is beautiful. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
The Beast from the East
11 August 2022 22:09:44
GFS looking wet for the south Tuesday.
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Downpour
11 August 2022 22:19:44

GFS looking wet for the south Tuesday.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


We’ll see…

Chingford
London E4
147ft
MBrothers
11 August 2022 22:32:30

GFS looking wet for the south Tuesday.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

is that your autumn?

DEW
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12 August 2022 01:41:58

No comments this morning - at Balloon Fiesta

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Chichester 12m asl
Rob K
12 August 2022 07:09:37
GFS seems much keener to bring high pressure back in this morning (based on op run).

ECM not as high pressure dominated as last night but still not bad.

UKM possibly the least settled of the three for next week but still looks a long way away from the “trough parking over the UK” scenario at the moment.

Autumn might have to wait a bit longer.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
12 August 2022 07:12:14

GFS seems much keener to bring high pressure back in this morning (based on op run).

ECM not as high pressure dominated as last night but still not bad.

UKM possibly the least settled of the three for next week but still looks a long way away from the “trough parking over the UK” scenario at the moment.

Autumn might have to wait a bit longer.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Should arrive by January.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Heavy Weather 2013
12 August 2022 07:25:37


 


Should arrive by January.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


LOL - lots of talk of washouts yesterday, I looked at the GFS ensembles, and tbh, while there is a signal for some rain, there looks to be very little. Certainly, the London rain shield will put paid to anything significant I’m sure. 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
12 August 2022 07:45:58


No comments this morning - at Balloon Fiesta


Originally Posted by: DEW 


bet that’s a lot more expensive than it used to be.  What with inflation. 


https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
Jiries
12 August 2022 07:51:33


 


Should arrive by January.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Better if Autumn coldness is delayed much longer so we can save the heating bills.  There few posters in NW who are anti-warm weather really stupid because they don't realized that wishing for cold weather now will hit them with high heating bills.  Sept and Oct are the months we can see 20's days extension and then return ast early as late February 2023 with warm spring.  Snow and very cold weather are welcome during Dec and Jan.

Gusty
12 August 2022 07:56:36

The outlook looks very reasonable.


The real heat starts to ebb away from Monday as a flabby area of low pressure (of southern origins) slowly develops to sit over the UK by the middle of next week. Risk of heavy convective (unreliable) rainfall, particularly inland. Many coasts dry. Very warm at first and humid, edging back to the warm category by the end of the week. (except in any rain of course).


Finally the chance of some significant rainfall for the SE Thurs/Fri as the, by then, more developed trough of low pressure edges east ahead of another rise in pressure signifying a potentially very warm and sunny period, especially for England and Wales.


Very encouraging for a continuation of what is now an incredible summer. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Jiries
12 August 2022 07:59:31


The outlook looks very reasonable.


The real heat starts to ebb away from Monday as a flabby area of low pressure (of southern origins) slowly develops to sit over the UK by the middle of next week. Risk of heavy convective (unreliable) rainfall, particularly inland. Many coasts dry.


Finally the chance of some significant rainfall for the SE Thurs/Fri as the, by then, more developed trough of low pressure edges east ahead of another rise in pressure signifying a potentially very warm and sunny period, especially for the England and Wales.


Very encouraging for a continuation of what is now an incredible summer. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Agreed and with some showers during the week the temperatures are not in the silly mid to high teens like last year but staying over 20C so whole of this month not see below 20C max here before warming up again on last part of August.  

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
12 August 2022 08:24:46


 


Better if Autumn coldness is delayed much longer so we can save the heating bills.  There few posters in NW who are anti-warm weather really stupid because they don't realized that wishing for cold weather now will hit them with high heating bills.  Sept and Oct are the months we can see 20's days extension and then return ast early as late February 2023 with warm spring.  Snow and very cold weather are welcome during Dec and Jan.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Important point. For the sake of household budgets and the weakening of Russia we really need this winter to be the mildest on record in Western Europe.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
The Beast from the East
12 August 2022 08:30:08

ECM ensemble mean looks better than the op, but it does look like some heavy rain even for the SE this week.


All that was needed was a drought to be declared! The media will of course call for an end to restrictions when the rain hits


"We have some alternative facts for you"
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Matty H
12 August 2022 08:38:41

How things have changed this summer. Normally we’d be speculating now on whether the all time high record could go in the next few days. Now it’s already been absolutely obliterated, it’s not been so much as mentioned. The bar has been raised. 

Yate, Nr Bristol
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Brian Gaze
12 August 2022 08:41:13


ECM ensemble mean looks better than the op, but it does look like some heavy rain even for the SE this week.


All that was needed was a drought to be declared! The media will of course call for an end to restrictions when the rain hits



Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Still very uncertain.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/mogreps-tables.aspx?run=00&fv=lsrratesfc&loc=london&lat=51&lon=0&p=&cty=


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Rob K
12 August 2022 08:42:59


How things have changed this summer. Normally we’d be speculating now on whether the all time high record could go in the next few days. Now it’s already been absolutely obliterated, it’s not been so much as mentioned. The bar has been raised. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Yes although to be honest even the old record is not likely to be in danger. However I wouldn't be surprised if the pre-2003 record (37.1C) was surpassed this weekend.


It is remarkable though that a spell of 4-5 days of mid-30s is effectively just a footnote.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
mulattokid
12 August 2022 09:04:36


 


Important point. For the sake of household budgets and the weakening of Russia we really need this winter to be the mildest on record in Western Europe.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


Hear, hear.

Located in West London

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