Astronomical summer!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

High pressure builds in significantly 168+ on the ECM. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

That good so that there more support and trends for HP to return quickly and hope to extend to September.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Going by the poor performance of UKV recently (e.g. yesterday IMBY a forecast of 24C in the 0z run becomes 29C by the 12z run), I wonder whether there'll actually be any colder than average conditions down here in the next couple of weeks.

The textbooks would tell you that the average max here is 22C in August (itself up a degree from the old 61-90 averages), but the coldest so far is 23.8C. In fact there's only been one colder than average day since the 1st July and even that was only 0.6C below average!

It seems the adage of a "add a few degrees" applies as much in the summer now as it does in the winter.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Meanwhile, where are the hurricanes? It is supposed to be a particularly active season (and the Pacific is now up to H) - we could do with one or two crossing the Atlantic to import some moisture from the Caribbean.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

The deluge in places on Tuesday into Wednesday on the ECM 12z are probably a decent representation of the potential described in the Met Office warning. I suspect there will be some flooding issues around in places in the coming days.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Will affect only a tiny slice of the UK population though, even if it happens. Tens of millions remain desperate for rain. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

I go with the meteorological seasons personally. Whilst early September can be warmer than a good part of June, I tend to judge the seasons on more than just temperatures.

For me, early September has a completely different feel to early June. The sun is much lower and weaker, the days are much shorter and nature has that tired and weary look. Contrast that to early June when you have the night-long twilight, a searing sun and plants in full and fresh growth. It's safe to say that I think June has much more of a "summer" feel to it.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

The point, although I appreciate this is difficult for you to understand, is that some other places might be impacted by significant and heavy rain in the coming days and this is reflected in some of the model output possibilities and the three days of weather warnings. I suspect flooding in some places will make the news in combination and indeed contrast with the heat and dryness in others.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Indeed. But has to be placed in context (if it happens at all). The big picture is the relatively high risk of continued drought for the vast majority of the UK population.

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

The deluge in places on Tuesday into Wednesday on the ECM 12z are probably a decent representation of the potential described in the Met Office warning. I suspect there will be some flooding issues around in places in the coming days.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yes could be some severe flooding in places,  not sure how dry it is atm in locations forecast the most rain. It would be bad enough at any time but if some locations with very dry hard baked ground get the amount of precipitation that's forecast it could cause a lot of flooding issues. 

 https://check-for-flooding.service.gov.uk/?v=map-outlook

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 

No it really doesn’t. It is a valid and important point in isolation, just like the ongoing dryness in other places is.  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

No it really doesn’t. It is a valid and important point in isolation, just like the ongoing dryness in other places is.  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

It’s a valid and interesting observation for sure. But context is always key: it’s likely to relieve the drought for approx 1-3% of the population, if that. 

A similar observation would be snow across the Peak District in January, a valid point but in the context of cold rain for 90% of the UK population. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

High pressure very much back in charge in a week to 10 days time on this morning’s output. Could get rather warm again too.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

High pressure very much back in charge in a week to 10 days time on this morning’s output. Could get rather warm again too.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Post heatwave maxes not at all bad. From Tuesday: 28, 25, 24, 25, 25, 26, 27, 29. Like a legendary May hot spell.

Getting hotter from 24th onwards.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

GFS had been a king this summer and pin pointed the heatwave last month and this current heatwave 2 weeks ago.  I wonder if they will carry on showing the cold and snowy charts 2 weeks ahead come to reality instead of disappearing acts?  I expect very warm again in later August with 25-30C days which it still very good and keep your heating off longer, I Had mine on once last year very cold August so want to avoid it.

Originally Posted by: Jiries