Glad you are on the mend!

Imagine if this year was our 1975, with 1976 to come next summer!

Interesting thought which prompted me to inspect the MIDAS temperature records. In some ways using a baseline of 50 years would skew the results as the 70s and 80s were not typical in terms of climate. To see the broader picture I extracted dates of last frost of spring and the first of autumn from the longest records dating from at least 1880 (5 in total spread across the UK.) The results are quite interesting and not immediately what we might expect.

As usual I've struggled with posting an image so the graphs are viewable on the link below.

The top graph shows the 30-year average last date of frost at Stornoway, Durham, Oxford, Armagh and Braemar (the value for each year is the 30-year average ending on that year so the value for 1910 spans 1880-1910.)

The bottom graph is the same format but shows the 30-year average first frost of autumn.

The dates are calculated as Julian Day so 1st April is 91, 1st May 121 etc (disregarding leap years)

The most dramatic changes seem to be at Stornoway where the average date of the first frost is now at the end of November, compared to end of October/early November 50 years ago.

UK frosts

Good to hear you are on the mend Keiron. 

Today's silly chart must be the P8 at the end of the GFS 6z run.

Builds up gradually through the high 20s to low 30s with a Cheltenham 37 that would bust the September record from 1906.

GFS 12Z Op is showing little rain into tomorrow for the extreme east of Kent and Essex but much larger amounts slightly further west in parts of Essex, Herts, Cambs, Norfolk, Suffolk and London.

 Very interesting. Thanks for taking the trouble to investigate

Time to see proper settled weather after boring cloud and failed rain attempts in over a week now. Notice the unforecast rain band in the west when supposed to be tonight on the SE. Warm today at 28C here and back home 27C so staying mid 20s in the the coming warm days to September.

It seem pushed further west 100miles clipping Birmingham line.  Apps as well had been very wrong again with this.

A bit of a N/SE split on the models this evening with 0mm of rain here over the next 7 days and an inch of rain modelled over Chingford in the next 24 hrs. 

Seriously though a rather warm and settled outlook for many areas after that band of intense rain in parts of the SE in the coming hours. On that note the UKMO high resolution model has up to 40mm over the capital. It will be interesting to see what materialises when the time comes, not that it will do much to alleviate the dry conditions due to the intense but brief nature of the precipitation.

Hot late Summer in New York as well.

https

Promises, promises. An inch of rain is possibly more than we have had in aggregate since the end of June.

We live in hope down here, but not in expectation. 

meanwhile, lots of rain forecast here in the far south tonight. Let’s see if it actually happens. 

Be good if it did. But I’m becoming jaded

The UK's zombie summer rises again After yesterday's WX chart showing cool air penetrating much of W Europe, this morning not only keeps week 1 generally warm but in week 2 holds cold air from the NE at the Polish border while warmth moves up from the S over France  and Britain. Rain well distributed in week 1; in week 2 a dry area appears from Iceland - Denmark - Poland and damp elsewhere (also significantly  different from yesterday's chart)

Jet - little action until Sat 3rd when some streaks over N Norway and the suspicion of a loop W of Britain; both fade and a new loop starts to develop over Britain Thu 8th

GFS - after today, a general rise of pressure mostly to the N but splitting to E & W Wed 31st as a trough of LP establishes over Britain resolving into a localised depression Ireland 1010mb Fri 2nd which retires W-wards for a while (with some warmth from the S) but returns across Britain to 1000mb N Sea Sat 10th.

GEFS - mean temp near or a little above norm but with a big spread around Sat 3rd; rain now in the S and after 3rd generally, esp at that stage in the N

ECM - similar to GFS. 

Hope no one minds but here is a still image from my dashcam driving to Stansted today. It was a wild ride!

If only it were January

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

That would just deliver marginally cold conditions, probably with grey skies for eastern and central areas, wouldn’t it?