Early days, but it's increasingly looking like there will be a bit of an Indian summer towards the closing days of October/opening days of November. The models have semi-consistently been hinting at a southerly around that time.

The 06z GFS actually has a chance for a new November record on the 1st, across East Anglia.

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I thought the 'drought or not' discussion would die away but since everyone seems to be keen on it, and I had a moment to spare, I've moved as many posts as I could find over to the 2022 Drought thread so as to keep them all together

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21C in Slough when I am there so if not raining then it would fee very warm and no heating needed.

By the looks of things I reckon it’s going to be a cold winter!  😂

Its not working DEW.

It will die away, but not just yet... Well not until the models show something really interesting like a bad storm, snow or weather bomb

heading our way.

At the  moment models are perhaps a little "boring" and going off topic when models are say not entertaining to some,

makes the model forum more interesting.

Not my place, but it's just a thought while we are waiting...

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ECM 12z goes properly "scorchio" as November starts.
Looking widely at temps in the high teens/low twenties across a large swathe of England and Wales. Date records very likely if this verified.

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My wife mentioned when she was in town today it was very warm and sunny, and like summer hasn't ended

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I was in Spennymoor, Northumberland, yesterday, covering football for the local radio station, and I was in short sleeves for the whole match. It felt really, really warm.

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Indeed 16c 850s in November.  Climate is definitely going loco.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

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That warm finger right from Birmingham area west and today was 18C considering the downpour this morning still very warm in the sunshine.

The apps need to change as they still over reacting with 24 hours rain and no higher than 18C.  That 16C finger in Birmingham should see 22-23C out of it and 21-22C in London.  i will be in Slough that time so no jackets needed.  Good for heating stay off and buying time reduce the heating needed as normally November is when heating start full time every day.

Haven't put the heating on once yet long may it continue. 

 

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WX summary: very mild this week on Atlantic coasts and additionally spreading E as far as W Poland; cold weather hanging around in far NE and this slowly expanding and deepening in week 2 while the mild stuff retreats to the coastal fringes. Rain fringing Atlantic coasts in week 1, extending further E to cover countries inland, not just the coasts.

GFS Op: various LPs close to W Britain until Fri 4th, generally moving N-wards (centred 985mb SW Eire Wed 26th, 990mb Fri 28th, 995mb Sun 30th and 965mb Rockall Wed 2nd) ; the last of these moves across N Scotland and brings in N-lies Sun 6th before a general rise of pressure 1030mb Channel Wed 9th with W-ly gales in the N. Shallow LP over NW Russia for much of these two weeks bringing colder weather there while HP mostly in E Med.

GEFS:in SE and E, dry-ish and very mild for week 1, but rain frequent thereafter and mean temp dropping steadily to definitely cool around Mon 7th. In SW and W, less dry in week 1, and only a small peak of milder temps. A lot of scatter in temps after Mon 7th

ECM: like GFS at first but LPs less well defined and no sign of LP Wed 2nd as pressure rises to the SE generating SW-lies for all

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Only one post on here today, such boring weather.

An odd run starting to show accumulating snow in the south and more further north of course.

Select locations here

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx

Also, wind speed ensemble plots have been added on the pages linked above

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An impressive northerly outbreak on p27 on last nights 18z
Not a lone wolf either.

WX summary looks just like yesterday: very mild this week on Atlantic coasts and additionally spreading E as far as W Poland; cold weather hanging around in far NE and this slowly expanding and deepening in week 2 while the mild stuff retreats to the coastal fringes*. Rain fringing Atlantic coasts in week 1, extending further E to cover countries inland, not just the coasts.(* and any real warmth linked to higher sea temps in Med)

GFS Op: again continuing yesterday's theme of LP running up the W coast - 980 mb off SW Ireland Wed 26th, 985 mb off NW Ireland persisting over the weekend, 990 mb running from Cornwall to reach Scotland Thu 3rd - but then a change as the N Atlantic gets more active, W-lies at first but with deep LP 970mb Faeroes Sun 6th with N-lies behind it. This is soon displaced by a new LP from Atlantic which heads directly to Britain and covers the whole country 990mb Wed 9th. Some cheer for the SE as HP over the Continent is the dominant influence there for the first week at least.

ECM: similar to GFS at first but the LP from Cornwall has combined with the Atlantic on Thu 3rd and forms an area of LP from N Norway to S England Fri 4th with long fetch N-lies. 

GEFS: very mild and dry for a few days becoming progressively cooler and wetter over the following 10 days. Scotland misses out on the starting mildness and dryness 

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Just a hint of what might become in mid November, latest EC46 and a couple of GFS runs now showing more seasonal possibilities. Ties in nicely with the Met forecast 

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Until then, the signs are there of the Atlantic properly waking up and throwing some punches at the UK as we go into the first week of November. Most of the models seems to be showing that but is as expected of this time of year anyway.

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Still no real change in the WX summary; the italicised is repeated from yesterday, and the day before -very mild this week on Atlantic coasts and additionally spreading E as far as W Poland; cold weather hanging around in far NE and this slowly expanding and deepening in week 2 while the mild stuff retreats to the coastal fringes and any real warmth linked to higher sea temps in Med. Just a hint of some colder weather moving down towards the Alps in week 2. Rain fringing Atlantic coasts in week 1, extending further E to cover countries inland, not just the coasts.

GFS Op - LP to the west of Britain for this week, pushing a little closer to Ireland tomorrow 980 mb, again Mon 31st and actually over SW Ireland 975mb Wed 2nd, with isobars indicating warmth from the S of Spain and beyond. The last of these links up with LP on the N Atlantic and winds swing round to the W/NW as the resulting LP runs E-wards past the N of Scotland and by Mon 7th centred 975mb Hebrides. That moves on, bringing in a N-ly, and after a brief lull a new LP from the Atlantic moves to Orkney 980mb Fri 11th. A possible late-season ex-hurricane on the mid Atlantic at that date.

GEFS - in the SE, very mild and mostly dry to Mon 31st, after which a drop to norm for mean temps, most ens members agreeing, and rain present in all of them from time to time; in the NW the mildness scarcely shows and rain is present and heavier from the beginning; in between a gradation.

ECM - similar to GFS but for week 1 the air flow doesn't draw from as far S; and when the LP to the W links up with the Atlantic after Wed 2nd the result is a much shallower but much closer LP 990mb covering Scotland Fri 4th.

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Unsettled with temperatures edging back down nearer to normal appears to be the longer term prognosis. Day and night temperatures still appear to be high or very high for another week or so though.  

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Worth keeping an eye on the possibility of another warm up during the middle third of November. That would cut through some of the suggestions which have been made recently.

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I'm writing off the entirety of Winter already. Looks like endless mild South Westerlies to me.

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The PV of doom getting ready for so called Winter. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

 

WX temp forecast is utterly boring; this is the fourth day I've posted this and there really is minimal change: very mild this week on Atlantic coasts and additionally spreading E as far as W Poland; cold weather hanging around in far NE and this slowly expanding and deepening in week 2 while the mild stuff retreats to the coastal fringes and any real warmth linked to higher sea temps in Med. Rather more change in the pptn pattern, week 1 as before with heavy rain affecting Atlantic coastal countries but in week 2 extending towards the Alps, not around the Baltic as previously.

GFS Op: LP off western Ireland, getting closer and stormier by Tue 1st but until then providing mild S/SW-lies; it links up with the N Atlantic resident depression and the pattern becomes more W-ly and cooler as LP centres move E-wards, particularly affecting Scotland 995 mb Fri 4th and Tue 8th. The latter dips S-ward into the N Sea bringing N-lies behind it before a ridge of HP from the SW appears on Fri 11th (but doesn't last)

ECM: like GFS until Fri 4th when the LP over Scotland develops a trough S-wards to cover England as well and instead of making way for the next LP, pressure rises slightly towards Norway while the LP itself drifts S to the Channel, filling.

GEFS: also like yesterday's forecast,  in the SE, very mild and mostly dry to Mon 31st, after which a drop to norm for mean temps, most ens members agreeing, and rain present in all of them from time to time; in the NW the mildness scarcely shows and rain is present and heavier from the beginning; in between a gradation but note that op and control are both distinctly colder from about Wed 9th

[Italics for extracts repeated]

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Is this the earliest ever "Winter is Over" post?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

In the meantime, the ensembles seem to be more or less in agreement on average conditions to for the start of November at least.

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