It's nice to see snow falling and settling, but I'm just as happy with a big gale or any other sort of big weather. 

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rumbled.....

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Feb 47 has to be the daddy. Wish we could repeat that.  If you look at the historic charts it is insane. 

Massive snowstorm right at the start of the month as front comes in against a cold block. Block wins and cold easterlies with snow showers.

Here is a pic 300m from my house on the 2nd. And that is only the start of it.

https://www.thestar.co.uk/webimg/QVNIMTE5NDgzNjA1.jpg?crop=61:45,smart&width=800

Then cold easterlies with further snow showers.

Then another failed breakdown and snowstorm on the 8th. More cold easterlies with snow showers and another failed breakdown at the end of the month. 

An absolute dream especially on higher ground exposed to the East where orographic effects will have boosted snowfall.  

 

 

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How could I possibly forget 1987 

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Better change your avatar in that case - a nice mild mush chart would do the trick. Never, ever, worry about feeling childish. Nobody out there gives a monkey's and you may as well indulge while you're still compus mentis.

Personally I'll take any cold and snow that's on offer. It's been too long, far too long, since the last decent cold and snowy spell. I know Philip Eden regarded the 2005 easterly as the last proper one... and although 2018 was very welcome, it was short but sweet. A bit like going to a restaurant, getting a fantastic starter, a superb main course, then being kicked out of the place after a couple of bites.

As time goes by it's clear that cold and snow is becoming ever rarer, especially down here. We should all appreciate it when we're lucky enough to see it, for who knows how many more snowy days we have left in our lives.

Not much sign of snow on the runs at the moment, of course, although the 6z GEFS did at least have a go for London with one of its members.

 

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I should want to but I can't help myself! Pretty stupid really as we have had no snow lying here since 2016 and before so I have never tried walking on ice since my two knee replacements. In fact my balance has deteriorated and I have slipped and fallen over two or three times in the last three years, with no serious injuries. So maybe it's time to call a halt on the lamp post watching - but then what about the grandchildren, now grown up and only had one cold winter(well two if you count 2009-2010 as two)  plus the Beast from the East. 

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Yeah, happy days but you still thought you had a chance and snow showers off the North Sea just about still existed here 

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Damn, just missed the first one but at least my dad told me about it first hand being as my brother was born in March 1947.

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Yes, I was lucky to have the golden years for cold winters and snow mostly between the ideal age of 10 and 35. Of course apart from the notable cold winters most winters had some days with deep snowfall back then, especially in East Anglia.

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WX temp summary; Much as yesterday - Europe as a whole still warm for the time of year with absolute values still quite high around coasts from Biscay past Spain and into the Med but not far inland. In week 2 a solid advance of cold air from the NE to the Russian border with a distinct move towards C Europe. Rain mostly based in the Atlantic including Britain, small patch in Adriatic, moving N-wards in week 2 but not leaving S England dry ; there is however a large dry area from N Spin up to the Baltic states. (Italics show repeated text from yesterday)

GFS Op; LP close to (Thu 3rd) and after some input from ex-hurricane Martin, just to NW of Scotland until Sun 13th with strong SW-ly flow. Then broad ridge of HP from Azores to Baltic, Britain on its N edge so still SW-lies but prospect of drier; its split into two centres, i.e. mid Atlantic and Urals, about Wed 16th allows N-ly winds to develop and places LP 1000mb Holland Fri 18th. 

ECM; somewhat different from GFS - the current LP is slower to clear leaving trough lingering in N Sea/W Europe through to Sat 6th. The new LP supported by ex-Martin is still in the forecast but only last to Fri 11th when HP advances from the SE just about as far as Britain but with winds from far in the S.

GEFS; temps close to or a little below norm to about Tue 8th then rising to definitely warm for the time of year, a peak about 6 or 7C above norm near Sun 13th in most ens members, after which decreasing but with much uncertainty in the N. Rain in bursts for a week, then mainly dry but persisting longer in the NW

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Hints of some more seasonal weather now - think the next 10 days will see last of warmth

Staggering.

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Not so much a pizza slice as an ostrich head!

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With the NAO remaining strongly positive, warm sea temps and the Jet going berserk, I can’t see an end to the Atlantic onslaught any time soon.
First time in a while we’ve had nation wide storminess of such a degree for quite a few Autumns.
Hopefully things settle down later in the month to usher in the calm yet bitterly cold December.

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The jet stream tends to be at peak beserkness when Atlantic temps are colder. 

 

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GFS little bit different with an easterly in 11 days! That will bring some cooler temps

That's the kind of unlikely GFS run I need for my well thought out CET estimate to come to fruition

If nothing else it's a reminder things can change fairly dramatically at this time of year and whilst the pattern before then seems fairly set (jet digging south to our west and HP developing over the near continent with mild south westerlies over us), the evolution after that is up for grabs still. 

Be interesting to see where it sits in the ens and what ECM produces later. 

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I would say the odd of a cold spell in the next few weeks are shortening quite rapidly now. 

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also staggering difference between runs!

Interesting. I don't see much sign of it myself, just looks very mild and then potentially nearer to average after mid-month but that's a long way off.

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What temperatures are we talking about from these charts if they were to come to fruition .Itis  all quite unreal for the time of the year...

NHC plots the approach of ex-hurricane Martin, still as tropical storm, to just N of Ireland late on Sunday

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents

 

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EMU rather than ECM

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Day 10 EC ensemble mean: Could be some cool nights in areas closest to that Euro high but warm days which will help with the energy bills at least. 

 

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