To be honest I haven’t seen that many worse charts than this. Cool, wet, windy, dull and unsettled is about as poor as it gets. 

That charts says “lots of heating needed” to me.  

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I get what you are saying, from a winter weather perspective I enjoy this and the cosy evenings!

 

From what I remember, we had a storm earlyish November 10. I'd taken the legs off the kids' trampoline and stashed it on its edge down the side of the house. I got in from work in strong winds and rain, just as a leg stump of  the trampoline - which had blown about 10 foot along - went through the outer pane of the downstairs toilet window. Put off replacing it and then the cold hit. Blimey, it was really noticeable and made the whole little room freezing. Managed to find someone to sort it before Xmas. 

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Same old for the foreseeable. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=320&y=108&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

 

😠

 

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If Richard is to believed, isn’t that true for most months of the year in Aberdeen?

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Interesting comment Peter ref the Para - in the para - there is still plenty of potential for a cold run up to the festive period - especially in Aberdeen - from this mornings run at least, by the look of it...with the high by then over Iceland...FI of course, but the rinse and repeat southerlies keep on coming and inflating a new high at high latitude, so potential seems plausible. I’ll have to spend the weekend getting more logs in...

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Cool and damp rather than cold here based on that output. Lots of damp or wet weather and almost zero sunshine. A flow of the relatively mild North Sea is grim at almost any time of the year.

The pattern however does hold hints of promise of wintry weather elsewhere down the line.

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WX temps seem to have stabilised for a while, with Europe NE of a line from Denmark to Romania below norm, and on our side of the line, just above norm. If anything, in week 2, the cold area has retreated a little though backed up in far E Russia by proper Siberian cold; while there's just a hint that Atlantic coasts including Britain may be very slightly milder. Rain continues for Atlantic coastal countries incl Britain for both weeks, with an extra area in week 1 through the Balkans up to Ukraine.

FAX shows fronts and troughs visiting all parts of Britain for the next few days, from the Atlantic,  with just a brief dry window on Saturday.

GFS Op - LP 985mb Wight tomorrow (early Thu) connected back to N Atlantic and moving N-wards; a brief pause before the next trough Tue 22nd 975mb NI extending SE-wards; then 10 days with LPs in mid/N Atlantic standing off a bit (but a close approach to NE Scotland Mon 28th) and with strong SW-lies,  finally filling and drifting E-wards to cover Britain Fri 2nd. An early HP centre over Scandinavia 1030 mb Sat 19th drifts away SE-wards and blocks the Atlantic rather than encouraging E-lies; but it's back in the final frame 1040mb Finland Fri 2nd.

ECM - similar general distribution of pressure, but shows LP consistently closer to Britain than does GFS, with cooler source of air (indirectly NW rather than SW). For example, no window of HP Sat 19th; 975 mb NI Mon 21st; 960mb W Ireland Thu 24th; 980mb off SW Ireland Sat 26th, all with influence over Britain as a whole.

GEFS - mean temp close to norm for the next two weeks (Op run briefly milder at end, but something of an outlier) and rain continually apart from a brief window Sat 19th in the SE, biggest totals in the SW.

 

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I see that 4 or 5 ensembles are now showing 5-10c lower for last 3 days on the charts, more pronounced in South than northern locations.

1 or 2 lines, I would put down as outliers, but this suggests there is something possibly being picked up. Still a fortnight out, but there must be some colder scenario which is being calculated and shown.

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Richard is never happy with the weather he experiences. Even if there is a prolonged period in the summer with an abundance of sunshine , he will complain big time if it isn't as warm as he thinks it should be.

The model output at the moment continues to look fairly interesting for the latter part of November, more so than has often been the case at this point in time in many recent years. I think the keyword at the moment is 'potential' and we shouldn't get too hung up on run-to-run changes in FI. There does seem to be a suggestion in GFS FI this morning of the cold pool currently over the north-east of the USA and Canada dissapating a bit later this month which might help with a pattern change.

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A couple show a coldish Easterly and another a cold High Pressure for the SE.  Snow row is only 3% (1 run) here  at the end of the perod though.   3% next week too, so there is one scenerio where the block introduces cold air and a bit of a battle sooner, but generally speaking very slim pickings. 

 

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www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_120_1.png
Almost a good chart for some seasonal weather

Admire your optimism ballamar but it just looks relentlessly mild and very wet to me. Flooding becoming an issue. 

 

 

 

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Yes agreed, I've seen it all before where early season charts look interesting then we get a full winter of mild South Westerlies.

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I agree about it being mild, but I'm not sure that flooding will be a major issue. I think it looks worse due to the graph showing all the ensembles, but if you look at the OP run for instance, there isn't a huge amount of rain.  Other than last weekend's dry spell it's been similar weather for the last few weeks and it's not even that muddy in the woods and fields round here. Much of the rain has been in the form of showers without the usual long spells of rain you get in westerly dominated weather which might have something to do with it.

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Let's hope not, but round here the River Roding has already been in flood. Which is surprising as Summer was incredibly dry here.

 

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I think there is a danger that you are viewing this from your 'back yard'. Wales for once has dodged the heavy rain, but open up https://www.floodalerts.com/ and you will see a swathe of red alert signs all the way across southern England, with only the chalk of Salisbury Plain managing to soak up the downpours. Another 30mm is expected for most of this area tonight. See also the reports from Sussex in the November Precipitation thread.

Nevertheless, I take your point that not all the ensemble members are wet all the time. My guess is that flooding will continue to be widespread and persistent in the south - it will now only take occasional top-ups to keep river levels high - and flooding will occur in all the usual places prone to it. But probably not the stuff of which national headlines are made.

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CFS comes up with a fun looking January - nice to see !

 

Fair point about regional differences and I should have mentioned it. I have been looking at the rain radar a lot recently to try and avoid the showers, and I have noticed there was often more persistent rain towards the south east (and the north!).

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I have been keeping an eye on the GFS ensembles for the last few days. Unfortunately, while it hasn't been entirely consistent, there has been a clear signal for a milder spell toward the end of the month and into December. The above chart isn't a one off. Still time to change, of course.

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Seems to be looking like Winter 2013/14 with all those southern tracking lows taking a short cut right over my county. Hope we are using up all our rain credit before this Winter. 

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Path to decent cold is never straight forward but the foundations are definitely being laid for December. Whether it happens or not time will tell , but feeling optimistic

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/CFSOPEU12_1776_2.png
And we could end up with this 😂

Very much a November 2009 vibe this month. Recent developments nod to a primed jet with northern blocking in place… could there be a 2009 style December to follow?