Some shift in Wx temp patterns this morning. Although all of Europe is forecast above or mostly well above seasonal norm, the extreme mildness has retreated to the French coast esp the SW. The freezing area over W Russia and N Finland expands somewhat into week 2 but no more than expected for the time of year and the 20C day-night isotherm neatly picks out the Med coasts. A lot of rain on the Atlantic, fringing Britain in week 1 but expanding further E in week 2 to affect all Atlantic coastal countries as well as the Baltic (yesterday's suggestion that the Alps would be included has gone).
GFS Op. LP currently W of Britain moving N to merge with Atlantic circulation but staying offshore until Wed 2nd with SW-lies for all. The LPs following are then positioned with the main centres in the N Atlantic; a more W-ly flow with troughs projected across Britain from time to time (notably deep LPs 955mb S of Iceland Sat 5th, 965 mb W of Ireland Thu 10th, in each case a blast from the S before backing W-ly again)
GEFS. current mildness (at least for the SE) dropping back to seasonal norm from Mon 31st, indeed mean temp a little below norm for a week with a possible uptick after Thu 10th, op & control being bullish though majority of ens members cooler. Rain already in W becomes more general from from Tue 1st for a week then drier in E in most ens members with occasional big totals in a few runs, but for W, soggy throughout.
ECM. After the merger of LP centres on Wed 2nd as per GFS, ECM keeps the resulting LP close to Scotland for a couple of days, not deep but enough to generate strong S-lies for a couple of days. Then this model keeps the LPs further NW, between Iceland and Greenland, with a prolonged period of steady W-lies from Sun 6th
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Chichester 12m asl