I remember cold spells of the past being preceded by such conditions although been a while since a proper easterly set up. Happy with cold grey for now

I'm just looking forward to some drier weather. Feels like November has been payback time for the hot, dry summer. I don't mind if it is mild or cold!

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Same here!

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Consistently showing now for a few days, pressure buildingnto our north, various strengths of cold showing.

Ecm seeming now on board too. I would say this is semi serious territory and not without merit.

Looks very much like a early 2009 setup ( i think it was anyway)

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Indicative:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.gefs.sprd2.png 

Remember get the pattern in first and the cold will come. At the moment, the train has left the sidings and it’s approaching its first junction. We can’t see it from the platform yet.

Exciting times. I’m just looking forward to seasonal weather. It’s been so wet here and far to mild for my liking.

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Gas usage to go up a lot now, lets see if the power grid can cope

 

 

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Let’s not get carried away.  Pressure looks to build, that is it at present. I feel sorry for the people who can’t afford to increase their gas usage.  For everyone, I hope it is a mild winter to come.

18Z GFS could hardly be more different from the eye candy of the 12Z.

Flipping between the 12Z and 18Z towards the end of the run the pressure patterns are virtually inverted. 

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Pub was closed for this evening’s 18z! 

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Check the GEFS a fair few are decent

Perhaps the first time in a while the NAO/AO goes negative on the first day of meterological winter. (1st December!) - This if this comes about but given how cold the PV is ATM I find it hard to believe it would go that negative or may flip back to neutral or even above given tonights poor GFS runs showing milder options but this of course is a long way off and the 18z operational is one of the mildest runs.

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It doesn't really matter how cold the stratosphere is if the trop PV is not coupled with it.

The 18z certainly wasn't a bad run...not in terms of future prospects anyway. That huge Russian HP that may be more of a foe in February is a massive help in late November in terms of allowing stress to be put on the stratospheric PV. With this in mind, the beauty of the current set up is that even if the TPV and SPV attempt to couple, it will only hasten the demise of the SPV via a warming event.

All looks good for a cold spell in the next month or so IMO.

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GEFS 18z more or less dropped the cold signal. Static snapshot below for comparison with subsequent updates.

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Decent set of runs this morning to get the building blocks in for an easterly in face to op get there at the end. Makes a lot more interesting viewing than previous years even if it doesn’t happen. Game on I would say !

ECM looks semi promising as it doesn’t look likely the high will sink.

For what exactly ? 

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The "cold signal" continues to ameliorate on the GEFS 00z. 

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Is it the usual GFS shortwave shenanigans making it throw a wobbly?

ECM is a lot cleaner this morning.

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Hmm I was thinking the GEFS looked quite promising for something wintry but are you saying they were better yesterday?

 

Certainly the Met Office seem to be dismissing any idea of an easterly any time soon. 

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Off again, on again; WX temps show 0C isotherm retreating to the far side of Poland in week 1 only to surge to E France in week 2, and with a decent follow up by the -16C isotherm, which crosses the Urals. Unlike previous surges, the Atlantic hasn't held on to mild air and Britain (except Ireland) looks distinctly cooler in week 2. Rain on Atlantic coasts and in the Med in week 1. The latter persists but the former retreats NW-wards with a large dry area developing from Britain to Russia (just a little damp around the Baltic).

GFS Op - LP near NW Scotland with HP struggling to establish from the S, and often S gales, until Thu 1st when the HP links with the larger centre over N Russia and intensifies. Britain remains on the edge of this with E/SE-ly winds for most but S-ly gales for W Ireland . A cold pool develops over the Baltic and drifts SW-wards so in the final frame Fri 10th it stretches from the HP 1060mb Finland to 995 mb Sardinia.

ECM is similar but the HP develops over Britain a day or two earlier, with a small cold pool already over France; and in its last chart, Sun 4th, a tongue of sub-552 dam is aimed at W Europe from the E.

GEFS - bursts of rain, most marked in the S but almost absent in Scotland, to Wed 30th, then drier for 10 days; mean temp and most ens members near norm but control dips some 7C around Tue 6th and the op does the same Fri 10th

GFSP extends the HP from Thu 1st well out into the Atlantic and broadens it, so calmer conditions for Britain as a whole

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ECM is a bit of a stunner this morning but the GEFS seem to be losing their appetite for anything interesting.  More runs needed as they say.

 

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ECM ensembles split on the 30th with a decent number going cold, -5c ish. 

 

 

 

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GFSP 06z (soon to be the OP) is going full-on combat mode later on. A strong Griceland block with the Arctic incoming from the NE.
Talk of a watering-down of the blocked signal may be premature.

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Yes but t2m temperatures could still be cold if high pressure is involved?

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