theweatheroutlook

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Hippydave
30 November 2022 14:08:34

More less cold or mild runs in the mix than 24 hours ago.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London 
 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Pretty stereotypical GFS behaviour - 0z set was reasonable for cold with a less favourable op (for the South anyway). 6z op goes colder and the ens suite is less convincing 😂

Bit odd to see quite so much difference at 850 level at such an early part of the run - there's a 5-6c difference by around T72-T96. 

Roll on the 12zs.......
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Tim A
30 November 2022 14:32:19
Met Office Mid Range Forecast is a bit better today and acknowledges cold from the North as being likely:

On Monday, showers are likely for many, these heaviest and most frequent in the east and south, perhaps becoming persistent rain at times and possibly wintry over hills. Elsewhere largely cloudy, with drier, sunny spells particularly in the northwest. Continuing through the week, occasional showers are expected, these heaviest and most frequent along eastern coasts with a chance of longer spells of rain for southern UK. Showers may become wintry over higher ground, with a further risk of sleet over lower levels at times. A cold northerly flow is likely to develop, drawing temperatures below average and feeling even colder at times, particularly during fresh winds. This may bring some wintry weather, with an increased risk of overnight frost and perhaps snow showers, not confined to higher ground.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
nsrobins
30 November 2022 15:53:09
That's actually a decent uptick in language from the UKM text outlook. Disclaimer - this outlook is as subject to wobbles as any other forecast or model it's based on.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Saint Snow
30 November 2022 16:18:51

Disclaimer - this outlook is as subject to wobbles as any other forecast or model it's based on.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 




Yep, I used to think "Onece the Met Office are onboard, it's very likely" but they've had to backtrack a few times in the past few years when everything seemed to point at a spell coming off.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
The Beast from the East
30 November 2022 16:19:23
Oh dear GFS is pants

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=0 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
30 November 2022 16:21:59
GEM is better though as the low stays further out
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=162&mode=0 

 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
30 November 2022 16:23:52
GEM is pretty good, those cold banks will be needed for the poor
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=1 
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Heavy Weather 2013
30 November 2022 16:27:06

Oh dear GFS is pants

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=0 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Id bet my house that that low ends up further south. GFS struggled for two days with thag Iberian low and then sunk it. That's why is progged to be colder on Sunday.

METO excellent 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
nsrobins
30 November 2022 16:43:51

Oh dear GFS is pants

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=0 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



I'm not sure about your pants but mine are half full - see how GFS develops after 150 😂
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
moomin75
30 November 2022 16:51:50

I'm not sure about your pants but mine are half full - see how GFS develops after 150 😂

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


It is pretty pants post 150 too to be fair.
But in the interest of balance, UKMO is good and as for GEM. Wow!!!
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Whiteout
30 November 2022 17:03:38
TBH with the 10 day trend update from the Met, far less concern about day-to-day model wobbles for me. The change is there, it is just how cold and how much and where will it snow. This won't be anywhere near decided until the weekend.
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
wallaw
30 November 2022 17:03:50
Evening all, it's probably been about 5 years since I post in the MO thread but I've always lurked. 
Given the current state of the jet and the amount of blocking that we are seeing so early, this is about as excited as I've been since the last time I posted.
Hope you are all keeping safe and well
Ian


Stockton-on-Tees
+2
doctormog
30 November 2022 17:15:22

Evening all, it's probably been about 5 years since I post in the MO thread but I've always lurked. 
Given the current state of the jet and the amount of blocking that we are seeing so early, this is about as excited as I've been since the last time I posted.
Hope you are all keeping safe and well

Originally Posted by: wallaw 



Hey stranger, good to see you. Yes there are definitely quite clear signs now for something from an easterly then northerly quarter with the potential for some wintry conditions. The 12z ECM run will be interesting tonight, especially if it's like the two previous op runs.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
nsrobins
30 November 2022 17:43:55
I assume the switch has been made with the GFS as the P is identical to the OP. Not sure why it's behind the latter though.
And I can't get the 12Z UKM on Meteociel. Anyone else having this issue?
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
30 November 2022 18:00:08

  https://content-eu.invisioncic.com/d321955/monthly_2022_11/ukmonh-0-168.png.6c93285d8b7084b5ef11b136455f39a7.png 

UK 168 , that will do 
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


dagspot
30 November 2022 18:02:05
Chris Fawkes:  'Get ready for some snow in our higher communities next week' 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Brian Gaze
30 November 2022 18:06:03
Not that much cold air in the mix on the UKM 168 despite it looking very impressive.

UserPostedImage

 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
30 November 2022 18:08:12
GFS has upgraded but there are data dissemination problems at the moment. However, the full run on TWO is valid.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx 

 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
30 November 2022 18:19:58

Not that much cold air in the mix on the UKM 168 despite it looking very impressive.

UserPostedImage

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Impressive cold incoming from the north, not dissimilar to this morning's ECM at a similar time.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gooner
30 November 2022 18:28:19

Not that much cold air in the mix on the UKM 168 despite it looking very impressive.

UserPostedImage

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



https://content-eu.invisioncic.com/d321955/monthly_2022_11/ukmonh-1-168.png.eeff6443748bf109259d5a27d16cfede.png 

Enough to start with Brian 
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


scarborough whiteout
30 November 2022 18:31:24
ECM stunning again.
some faraway beach
30 November 2022 18:31:50
Yellow over Greenland is always my benchmark for excitement. So, orange over Greenland really is something. Especially when it's the UKMO (the model we always say we need onboard in these situations).

I take Brian's point about the airmasses on that UKMO 168 chart not being particularly cold, but I'm more concerned about the journey getting going and having legs. Details will work themselves out. Orange over Greenland, and we're on our way.
2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
+1
Gooner
30 November 2022 18:33:46

 https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022113012/ECH1-144.GIF?30-0 
 ECM 144 looking ok
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
30 November 2022 18:36:35
  https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022113012/ECH1-168.GIF?30-0 

  Stunning , really can't complain ..................can we ?

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022113012/ECH0-168.GIF?30-0 

Chilly as well Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


scarborough whiteout
30 November 2022 18:37:52
Just WOW. ECM has always stuck to its guns modelling this upcoming spell. Fabulous charts for cold lovers. Worrying for Energy consumption.

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