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Jiries
01 December 2022 22:06:51

This is very true Jires. Although not illegal (yet) the government may have to step in with emergency measures, if this output continues in light of the Met office contingency planners update, which indicates a below average start to winter. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



They had that for OAP when it get cold but this time need for everyone and businesses.  Very soon we will what action they will do as all models  going for colder weather next week without backing down.
Quantum
01 December 2022 22:10:36
This actually looks like it should be taken seriously. Rock solid agreement on an extended cold spell albeit not necessarily severe cold.
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
01 December 2022 22:17:40


 https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022120118/gfsnh-0-168.png?18 
 
 Stunning from GFS 
 
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
01 December 2022 22:21:27

 https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022120118/gfsnh-1-180.png?18 

 A tad chilly Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Laths
01 December 2022 22:32:07
December 1981 was indeed early cold and plenty of snow i remember . Lasted most of the month and over snowfields in the south , some low minima was recorded . 
John
Wallington
Surrey
(London Borough of Sutton)
fairweather
01 December 2022 22:44:17

Fwiw ECM op has daytime max temps for me of:-
3/12 = 4.5c
4/12 = 3.8c
5/12 = 5.8c
6/12 = 6.1c
7/12 = 1.3c
8/12 = 1.7c
9/12 = 0.6c
10/12 = 3.1c
11/12 = 3.0c

So cold for 3 days and chilly before and after that. Nighttime temp wise it's only from the 7th that goes below zero, with a lowest of -5.7c which is fairly unusual as it doesn't usually show temps that low and often overestimates things IMBY if skies are clear.

Some way off a decent cold spell just going on temps on the Op but not terrible and a brief window where lying snow is possible. Be interesting to see how it develops and whether it sticks with the theme of cutting off the colder 850s due to too much LP development (and if it does whether it goes mild after that or brings in some of the cold air building over Scandi as shown in the T240 chart!).

(All very IMBY of course and other locations will probably be somewhat better looking if you like it cold!). 

Must admit I prefer the GFS ops solution to ECM, just because it's much better at day 9 in terms of bringing colder uppers in so I'm pretty neutral with the ECM setup, chilly/cold though it is IMBY.

 

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


Good summary. Unlikely to see lying snow down here at sea level but unusual to get this close this early in the winter.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
ballamar
01 December 2022 22:50:02
Pants GFS run in the longer term, but that's miles off
Matty H
01 December 2022 23:04:56
Hmmmm.....
Yate, Nr Bristol
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The Beast from the East
01 December 2022 23:35:08

Once the cold air arrives as per models been showing, the energy companies should waived the illegal high standing charges out or reduce the costs during the cold spell to allow everyone to use more heating then get killed inside from cold weather.  Many will be killed or very sick as many houses will easily drop to freezing, then burts pipes.  

Heating always on 24 hours during past big freeze to prevent freezing house and pipes.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



looks too cloudy for temps to drop too low at night but cold enough for a lot of energy use. Let’s see what happens when the first power cut happens. Younger folk are not used to it. As a kid my parents taught us where the candles were kept. If the current generation lose WiFi connection for a few hours , the panic will begin 
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BJBlake
02 December 2022 00:32:13
Cold is cumulative, so I think we will see an increasing likelihood of snow to low levels, especially if the dew points are low, which reduce in time with air from this Arctic source. The warm seas could see lake effect snow if we engage that very cold air, with towering cumulus clouds from the east coast like Jan 1987P: we can but dream...
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
BJBlake
02 December 2022 00:34:42
UserPostedImage
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
CreweCold
02 December 2022 01:33:01

Link doesn't work, but is that Joe the ******i!?
I am starting to seriously see a living correlation between soggy Novembers followed by icy Decembers. 

maybe some clever individual can highlight some recent stats. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


There is a correlation.

Novembers are often extremely wet (think '09) when the Atlantic troughing fails to get much past the meridian. Essentially, LP becomes slow moving across the UK. That's because there is blocking to our E or NE (usually somewhere around Russia). This buckles the jet to our E and transports warm air N towards the Siberian Arctic. This creates a feedback and eventually the Atlantic jet gets split further west and allows blocking to take hold.

There are also longer term implications of the Russian/Siberian block in terms of the stratosphere. It's the one thing I look for later October/November to guage whether we will see cold early doors.

Over on the other site I said this in late October-

'Very encouraging GFS at D8 for the longer term.
As I point out every year, troughing struggling to get past the meridian is what you want to see as you enter November. Nov 2009 featured this in abundance. To my eyes it looks as though the strat is going to be roughed up slightly over the next couple of weeks.
This is a prelude to a pattern change as we go further into Nov and Dec.
A period of meridional jet stream across the Atlantic looks odds on to me latter Nov/into December. The seasonals concur with this too, which is good.'

Some people saw soggy weather, I interpreted it as a hemsipheric set up loading itself with potential.
 

Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
+1
Brian Gaze
02 December 2022 06:20:02
Incredible GFS 00z run for cold weather fans. Probably one of the most impressive we've ever seen.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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+1
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
02 December 2022 06:30:31

It's the law of Sod - the one time we really don't want a cold winter, thats exctly what we will get!    An bear in mind a cold Europe will only make matters worse (in terms of energy supply), whatever  happens here.

Originally Posted by: Essan 

The law of Sod!  Cold and dry is OK but for once I don't want snow in a week's time as we've got contractors booked in to tile the roof of our new build next weekend. Then underfloor heating and screed w/c 19th, so it can dry over Christmas for the plasterers to start first week in January.  We're pulling in weekend work already, due to days lost through rain. 🙄
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Heavy Weather 2013
02 December 2022 06:49:18
GFS excellent.

ECM not as good as yesterdays 12z. The blocking high is still there but a bit to west based. At 192 a huge dartboard low to the SW could go anyway, need to to dive into he med.

Edit: Game over for the south at 216hrs. Low pressure pushes in and milder. Battled ground in the north.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
MBrothers
02 December 2022 06:57:27
If I had a quid for every time on every run someone said game over or mostly rain I would be loaded . 
Heavy Weather 2013
02 December 2022 07:00:28

If I had a quid for every time on every run someone said game over or mostly rain I would be loaded . 

Originally Posted by: MBrothers 



Just calling it as I see it on this run. I suspect one of the clusters in the ensembles. Could be a snowy breakdown though. I'm not convinced of that low blowing up In the way mind.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
moomin75
02 December 2022 07:04:00

Just calling it as I see it on this run. I suspect one of the clusters in the ensembles. Could be a snowy breakdown though. I'm not convinced of that low blowing up In the way mind.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

ECM is the party pooper this morning, BUT, this is in FI, and it would only take a correction south of about 100 miles for that low to produce a classic blizzard and then a reload from the northeast.​​​​​​​For cold weather fans, we should all be very satisfied with what we have showing at the moment.  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2022 07:04:26
Disappointing ECM for the South.  GEM the pick of the bunch this morning.  A beauty. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
02 December 2022 07:07:32

Disappointing ECM for the South. GEM the pick of the bunch this morning. A beauty.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Way out at 192 hours, and as I said above, a correction south by 100 miles or so and it would have been epic.Keep the faith Ally. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2022 07:17:17

Way out at 192 hours, and as I said above, a correction south by 100 miles or so and it would have been epic.Keep the faith Ally. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Yes I agree expect ECM to be a bit of an outlier post 192h.
Looking at the GEFS the North looks odds on now for a significant cold spell the South less so but still in the game. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
02 December 2022 07:25:32
Can see an emotional day!! 😂 to be honest it's always a long shot getting cold spell in the models consistently let alone to happen. ECM  all over in the south by the end, GEM my pick today! Enjoy the variability don't get emotional
marco 79
02 December 2022 07:26:42
Looking at the 00z GFS has the mean in my locale running below -5°c at 850 from the 8th to the 17th...Op and control are slightly below that..The cold spell of Dec 81' started around the 6th if I recall with uppers not too far from what we are seeing here
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Jiries
02 December 2022 07:31:57

Way out at 192 hours, and as I said above, a correction south by 100 miles or so and it would have been epic.Keep the faith Ally. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



W Midlands look great and being mostly over 100m like my home at 133m should see all snowfall.  The very cold air come from NE later need trigger energy companies to waived standing charges and cuts prices to 2020 levels. 
Tim A
02 December 2022 07:40:58
Great charts and the 4-7 day push from the NE looks good now, I wouldn't worry about Day 9-10 ECM and the exact position of the low yet , it almost certainly won't end up exactly like that. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 

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