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doctormog
03 December 2022 09:36:47
First run out from the 06z suite is the ICON (goes out to +120hr). Will there be cross-model agreement for day 5 when the GFS comes out?

UserPostedImage
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gusty
03 December 2022 09:45:25
Enjoyable output viewing on a cold and grey early December morning with coffee in hand.

Sound agreement for the arrival of cold air from the North and Northeast from Tuesday/ Wednesday. Uncertainty though how far this cold air gets for the Midlands / Southwards presently due to shortwave lows either spooling out from energy to the south or via disturbances from the north.

Snow on offer for higher ground generally away from coasts and from features more generally embeded in the northerly flow. 

The south are not immune from a snow event as things stand, although I suspect we would need to get that -5c (850Hpa) isoltherm clear of the south coast first and then rely on the Iberian low to get close enough (but not too close) and ensure we tug in a cold continental flow undercut.

What happens thereafter could be potentially very special if this plays out the way we hope. Fortunately we are keeping ourselves grounded as a community and concentrating on this week first !
 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



+1
idj20
03 December 2022 09:45:36

Going by the latest UKMO fax charts, https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t24   we are seeing the perfect synoptics for decent widespread wintry weather across the UK for the next week - and yet due to the lack of deep cold at the 850 hpa it seems to be struggling to get going. I remember this kind of thing literally being an overnight thing. Too early in the season? Or some kind of global warming really is happening?
 
Folkestone Harbour. 
Brian Gaze
03 December 2022 09:53:12
Looks like there are fewer milder runs in the ECM ENS this morning. On the other hand I don't want to fall into the trap of overanalysing which I sometimes accuse other people of doing. 😀

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
David M Porter
03 December 2022 10:01:07
This is certainly the most interesting period of following the models at the start of any winter since December 2010, and I guess this was unexpected by many people in view of the continuous warmth we have had throughout this year. It will be fascinating to see how it all plays out as we go further into December. 🙂
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
doctormog
03 December 2022 10:08:45
The 06z GFS so far (+84hr):

UserPostedImage
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
fairweather
03 December 2022 10:30:08

Query; does the MetO have a default option in which, if they're uncertain, they just put down a constant temp and unrelieved cloud? It looks like that here through to Tuesday; but the same forecast applied yesterday and we had a really nic sunny afternoon. It's happened before.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Wouldn't be a bad policy. They would have been right for the last ten days if they did that for here! 😂
S.Essex, 42m ASL
nsrobins
03 December 2022 10:38:01
I certainly didn't expect that from the 06Z GFS. Had to check I'm not looking at yesterdays 12Z EC in error as it's gone down the route of phasing with the low to the SW and stalling the Arctic trough to the North. We're in mild SWlies by next weekend as a result.
Need to see the suite.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
doctormog
03 December 2022 10:41:20

I certainly didn't expect that from the 06Z GFS. Had to check I'm not looking at yesterdays 12Z EC in error as it's gone down the route of phasing with the low to the SW and stalling the Arctic trough to the North. We're in mild SWlies by next weekend as a result.
Need to see the suite.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



To be honest I'm not surprised. If the ECM can put out an option like that yesterday the 06z GFS output is not a surprise as it falls within the range of possible outcomes. Perhaps one of a few similar outcomes in the GEFS set? We will find out soon I guess.

(Edit: On the subject of ensemble data,the 06z GEFS short set (up to 192hr) has a -10°C t850 count of 20 members for this location for what it's worth. The peak level (coldest) is at 108hr  - Wednesday evening)
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
ballamar
03 December 2022 10:59:47
Great run from GFS keep everyone on their toes. Not sure I believe it, the way it quickly bring back blocking. I suppose this is why it entertaining.
+1
Gusty
03 December 2022 11:23:02
Loving the ride.

It feels like we are always just a couple of runs away from the crashing deck of cards and resultant Atlantic dominance in these types of situations. 

We could do without this pesky shortwave developing at 120 to ensure a cleaner and more efficient and  widespread introduction of the arctic airmass. This sort of development may give a little bit of short term gain but at the risk of long term pain.
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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+1
Rob K
03 December 2022 11:54:37
Dodgy 6Z run from GFS shows how things can quickly fall apart as soon as the UK ends up under a big trough. The HP influence seems to be getting further from our shores with every passing run. Which is not necesssrily a bad thing as slack low pressure in winter can be fun. The big question is whether we can get enough cold air into place beforehand. At the moment it looks increasingly as though we can't (although the snow row is up to 68% for London on both 0Z and 6Z).
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
03 December 2022 11:59:11
There's not much change in the GEFS ensemble suite compared with the previous set, but the devil is in the detail as they say. By day 10 the op run is an outlier here (over 4°C warmer than any other ensemble member). Further south it is also significantly above the mean at that point. I would expect such wobbles and variation to continue especially in the midrange output.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
JOHN NI
03 December 2022 12:10:23
Trends trends trends. Two different models operational runs appearing with windy/milder Atlantic lows on consecutive days. Confidence beyond next weekend must be very low...and as has been said, devil in the detail which just isn't available at that range. 
John.
The orange County of Armagh.
nsrobins
03 December 2022 13:08:18

Trends trends trends. Two different models operational runs appearing with windy/milder Atlantic lows on consecutive days. Confidence beyond next weekend must be very low...and as has been said, devil in the detail which just isn't available at that range. 

Originally Posted by: JOHN NI 



It's too soon to call the new signal but the signs are there that the Arctic trough might not get far enough South before potential phasing with Atlantic energy. It's getting colder, but the depth of cold and longevity is a very tricky call as it stands this morning.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Joe Bloggs
03 December 2022 13:08:22
Hi all,

Thought I'd flag that the IBM weather model (iOS weather app) must have flipped to extremely cold today, it's showing a max of -1C here a week on Monday. I think it was Rob who suggested it had slipped mild yesterday with temps approaching double digits at the same timeframe! Just shows how things are incredibly uncertain right now. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Essan
03 December 2022 13:16:52

Hi all,

Thought I'd flag that the IBM weather model (iOS weather app) must have flipped to extremely cold today, it's showing a max of -1C here a week on Monday. I think it was Rob who suggested it had slipped mild yesterday with temps approaching double digits at the same timeframe! Just shows how things are incredibly uncertain right now. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



And why apps are not weather forecasts 😉
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Joe Bloggs
03 December 2022 13:22:24

And why apps are not weather forecasts 😉

Originally Posted by: Essan 



Indeed.

But it's a direct representation / gridpoint of a weather model and therefore worthy of discussion. 

Makes me wonder if it has high pressure building in with a lot of surface cold. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Brian Gaze
03 December 2022 13:25:37
MOGREPS-G 06z have trended milder at the very end. There's a good chance the 12z runs will show significant movement later today.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/mogreps.aspx 
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
roadrunnerajn
03 December 2022 13:28:05
Amazing how little changes can affect the weather...Two days ago it was 11.5c with a light breeze and sunny skies. Today we are currently at 5.6c under a grey sky. The uppers are about -3 to -4 at the moment. 
If the Atlantic low forecast next weekend moves only 2-300 miles further south we could be into a snow situation if not rain and 10c. 
It's like watching England play football.... unfortunately with the same results most of the time...
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
+1
Rob K
03 December 2022 13:43:37

Hi all,

Thought I'd flag that the IBM weather model (iOS weather app) must have flipped to extremely cold today, it's showing a max of -1C here a week on Monday. I think it was Rob who suggested it had slipped mild yesterday with temps approaching double digits at the same timeframe! Just shows how things are incredibly uncertain right now. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Yes I was about to post the same thing. 2C max here by next weekend (and -5C overnight low)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
03 December 2022 13:49:43

It's too soon to call the new signal but the signs are there that the Arctic trough might not get far enough South before potential phasing with Atlantic energy. It's getting colder, but the depth of cold and longevity is a very tricky call as it stands this morning.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Comparing the 6Z GEFS with yesterday's runs it looks slightly colder in the medium term but the signal for an extended cold spell seems to be fading, with a return to milder weather by mid month looking favourite at this stage (which would fit with the Met Office long-ranger). Still a long way to go of course. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Jiries
03 December 2022 14:01:17

Hi all,

Thought I'd flag that the IBM weather model (iOS weather app) must have flipped to extremely cold today, it's showing a max of -1C here a week on Monday. I think it was Rob who suggested it had slipped mild yesterday with temps approaching double digits at the same timeframe! Just shows how things are incredibly uncertain right now. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Same here -1C on Monday.  I notice the apps only have clouds no rain or snow next week but with the models show lot of snow here from Thursday onward.  Won't be dry one.  Apps are know to extremey severe over reacting with cloud or rain, never put anything else.
Quantum
03 December 2022 15:32:41
ICON is going for a rare high lat Hurricane end of next week around the Azores. TC tracks are very unpredictable and as the Hurricane transitions to extratropical it will dump loads of baroclinic energy in the Iberian area. This could be helpful or harmful to the cold spell here but either way if this TC forms trust nothing past 96hr
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+3
Brian Gaze
03 December 2022 15:50:28

ICON is going for a rare high lat Hurricane end of next week around the Azores. TC tracks are very unpredictable and as the Hurricane transitions to extratropical it will dump loads of baroclinic energy in the Iberian area. This could be helpful or harmful to the cold spell here but either way if this TC forms trust nothing past 96hr

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Just tweeted before I saw your post but agree with its conclusions. Impossible to say how things would develop with the ICON G 12z beyond its finish.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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