theweatheroutlook

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marcus72
04 December 2022 17:34:31

Decent snow event at t+357. I've added to my diary.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=357&chartname=preciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Have made a note of it too - that's my 50th birthday so would make a lovely surprise for a walk to the pub in the evening !  Shame the chaces of it actually happening are slim to zero. Ah well , nice to dream none the less 😊
Langstone, SE Hampshire
ballamar
04 December 2022 17:36:38
Control seems quite promising
dagspot
04 December 2022 18:02:13

My iPhone App now has me looking at 6 consecutive ice days from Wednesday.

Originally Posted by: Martybhoy 


Mmm, suspect that might be a tad ambitious 🤔
Neilston 600ft ASL
Tim A
04 December 2022 18:02:35
This has caught my interest , potential for some snow pushing South on Thursday, GFS has been keen for a while.   Would be great to get something Thursday as the week does look mostly dry and cold otherwise. 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_90_43.png 
Met Office automated also has some snow showers here Thursday first thing with sib zero temps. 
Even if the band is still forecast come Wednesday it will be a nowcast as these things are quite fickle and can break up running South down the country . 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Brian Gaze
04 December 2022 18:05:15

This has caught my interest , potential for some snow pushing South on Thursday, GFS has been keen for a while.   Would be great to get something Thursday as the week does look mostly dry and cold otherwise. 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_90_43.png 
Met Office automated also has some snow showers here Thursday first thing with sib zero temps. 
Even if the band is still forecast come Wednesday it will be a nowcast as these things are quite fickle and can break up running South down the country . 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



Arpege also shows the possibility of snow on Thursday.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=12&charthour=91&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip 

 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Osprey
04 December 2022 18:11:27

Arpege also shows the possibility of snow on Thursday.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=12&charthour=91&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Looks like possible snow Thursday imby
Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
04 December 2022 18:18:52
Off topic: the "users browsing" bit at tge bottom showing as blank in Safari on MacOS?> 
https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
+1
Roger Parsons
04 December 2022 18:23:35

Off topic: the "users browsing" bit at tge bottom showing as blank in Safari on MacOS?> 

Originally Posted by: idot 


And on Firefox.... on Win10.
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
westv
04 December 2022 18:31:25

And on Firefox.... on Win10.

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


and on my Amazon fire tablet.
At least it will be mild!
Jive Buddy
04 December 2022 18:31:28
Same here, on Windows 3.11 😠😱
It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Rob K
04 December 2022 18:43:59
ECM all looking a bit flabby, can't see the blocking being strong enough to repel the Atlantic for long. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
04 December 2022 18:45:42

Same here, on Windows 3.11 😠😱

Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


I had you down as more of a Dosser 😇😛

A chilly and messy 12z ECM run so far (up to day 8 ) https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_192_1.png  
 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Gandalf The White
04 December 2022 18:46:47

Off topic: the "users browsing" bit at tge bottom showing as blank in Safari on MacOS?> 

Originally Posted by: idot 



Also in Safari on an iPad and iPhone and Chrome on Windows 10
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


White Meadows
04 December 2022 18:49:43
ECM warms up quite a bit after next weekend. 
nsrobins
04 December 2022 18:55:24

ECM warms up quite a bit after next weekend. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



FI - >120hrs. All NWP is unreliable after that, especially until the Pseudocane is resolved.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
04 December 2022 18:57:44

Same here, on Windows 3.11 😠😱

Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 



Good lord... Jive Buddy... i'll be. 😎
https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
doctormog
04 December 2022 18:58:11

FI - >120hrs. All NWP is unreliable after that, especially until the Pseudocane is resolved.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Yes the 12z ECM op could hardly be more different to the 12z GFS op run today in that time frame (day 8 and beyond especially).
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gandalf The White
04 December 2022 19:00:52

ECM warms up quite a bit after next weekend. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I'll wager that will sit amongst the warmest of the ensemble suite.  It seems odd that it develops a Euro high from nowhere at the end of the run; obviously it's an option but...
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
04 December 2022 19:51:06
All bets are off after this time next week, so much depends on the path of that tropical storm and whether it gets absorbed into the trough over the UK. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ulric
04 December 2022 19:52:56

And on Firefox.... on Win10.

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Firefox on Ubuntu 22.04 too.
To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
White Meadows
04 December 2022 19:54:22

I'll wager that will sit amongst the warmest of the ensemble suite.  It seems odd that it develops a Euro high from nowhere at the end of the run; obviously it's an option but...

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Not really sure it's that odd to be honest. It is the default HP set up most winters so I wouldn't rule out a 5 day frosty cool down followed by the hair dryer being switched on for the rest of the month. 
doctormog
04 December 2022 20:00:07

Not really sure it's that odd to be honest. It is the default HP set up most winters so I wouldn't rule out a 5 day frosty cool down followed by the hair dryer being switched on for the rest of the month. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



You're right not to rule it out but it's not a favoured option currently. The 12z ECM mean is a good deal colder than the op run by day 10: 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022120412/EDE1-240.GIF  

Interestingly there is surprisingly little spread on the ECM set at day 10: 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022120412/EEE1-240.GIF  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
marting
04 December 2022 20:00:59
ECM was a complete top end ensemble member https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202212041200&epsgram=classical_10d&lat=51.4333&lon=-1.0&station_name=Reading 
Stands out like a huge mountain, other clusters remain tight on the cold remaining.
Martin
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Gandalf The White
04 December 2022 20:28:41

Not really sure it's that odd to be honest. It is the default HP set up most winters so I wouldn't rule out a 5 day frosty cool down followed by the hair dryer being switched on for the rest of the month. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Yes, I think we all understand that it's an option, but I wouldn't call it 'the default HP'. The point is that the evolution to a Euro high from a Euro trough in 48 hours seems improbable, which the ensemble mean and the graphs seem to confirm.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


LeedsLad123
04 December 2022 21:15:26
iOS weather forecast for Leeds starting to look pretty cold now... would be a decent spell if this comes off.

https://i.imgur.com/RVlVDJr.jpg 
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

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