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Jiries
06 December 2022 07:42:58

Gefs holding great this morning, looking at a consistent -7 to -9c 850s here. Has anyone got any info on temperature ranges yearly? 2022 could breach 100f between our 40c in July and this upcoming spell if conditions are prime with clear nights

Originally Posted by: marco 79 



1995 did that from 35C on 1st Aug to -27.2 after xmas that year so a range of 62.2C.  40C to this if drop -23C somewhere then that a record range of 63C plus.
Ally Pally Snowman
06 December 2022 07:49:34
Upgrades from the big 2 this morning.  Stunning. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
06 December 2022 07:55:25
Can I bank the ECM absolute dumping of snow for here.😍🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hippydave
06 December 2022 07:55:33

ECM with a fantasy run for parts of the south. Enjoy the output while it lasts. 😉

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 



Must admit I thought the ECM run was going to be quite 'iffy' for the South in particular as looked to be reverting to LP spinning much milder air up over quite a large area. In the end it's the far south and far south east that end up under the milder air with areas just slightly further north potentially getting a lot of snow before colder air returns for all. Interesting that the T240 chart has -10 850s quite widely -> not seen it that low from the ECM op and there hasn't been that many ens members at -10 either.

All deep FI of course and I suspect the models will wobble about with that low placement for another 3-4 days yet (including back to the mild for the south evolution I would imagine).

Generally the theme remains consistent though, which is cold with snow chances for some. I've actually got a full on, scrape your windscreen frost this morning. First proper frost I've had since last winter!
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
06 December 2022 08:00:10
Best GEFS so far!😀

UserPostedImage

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
BJBlake
06 December 2022 08:10:34
Well - WTF - this is something truly special and seemingly safe - with cross model agreement - (its like Ipswich winning 6-0 by half time and then sitting back and relaxing, watching the spectacle unfold - never happens - usually 1-0 at best and then we concede in the last minutes of injury time!) - just enjoying this advent like times of old. Wow! 
That GFS run shows the low beatling in to the south, packed full of energy, collide with the cold air and deliver 1979 type snow fall, that could be 2' deep and drifts to 10 ft, if that comes off.
Someone posted that the winter of discontent (1979) saw its memorable cold spel (and snowfall), 2010 was what it was - after the big banking depression and then now!  I did not imagine seeing another 1979 in my life time! That would be one for the history books - if it comes off: pardon this ramp.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
06 December 2022 08:15:56

Well - WTF - this is something truly special and seemingly safe - with cross model agreement - (its like Ipswich winning 6-0 by half time and then sitting back and relaxing, watching the spectacle unfold - never happens - usually 1-0 at best and then we concede in the last minutes of injury time!) - just enjoying this advent like times of old. Wow! 
That GFS run shows the low beating in to the south, packed full of energy, collide with the cold air and deliver 1979 type snow fall, that could be 2' deep and drifts to 10 ft, if that comes off.
Someone posted that the winter of discontent (1979) saw its memorable cold spel (and snowfall), 2010 was what it was - after the big banking depression and then now!  I did not imagine seeing another 1979 in my life time! That would be one for the history books - if it comes off: pardon this ramp.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



spectacular ramp that. Must admit, this does look promising now. ramp away.
https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
+1
Jiries
06 December 2022 08:15:56

Can I bank the ECM absolute dumping of snow for here.😍🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Plus with lot of snow features from Thursday onward due to very unsettled cold LP and not a boring dry and frosty spell that come with HP on top of UK.  
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 December 2022 08:19:53
WX temp summary showing a spread of cold air (behind the 0C isotherm) well established across W Europe in week 1, and with only a modest retreat in week 2 i.e. still as far as E France with patches in Britain. The slight incursion of wamth from the south affecting Rumanis and Ukrine starts to reverse in week 2. Britain and France dry in week 1 with areas of rain/snow all around; in week 2 the dry area is centred on S Germany and Poland so Britain and esp N Sea is due for some pptn.

GFS Op - the N-lies arrive on Thu 8th under the influence of LP 995mb Baltic States and HP 1070mb Greenland. By Mon 12th there is a new LP centre in the Med bringing the remaining cold air from the Baltic to UK. The deep LP on the Atlantic then moves NE towards us and then begins an uncertain situation with the boundary between mild in the S and cold in the N for the UK. That LP moves 985 mb Biscay Thu 15th to Brittany Fri  16th to 990mb Sun 18th with N-lies re-established. It continues to move NE-wards with a narrow ridge of HP aligned with Britain Wed 21st, and a new deep LP looking as if it will follow the same course from the Atlantic. HPs over Greenland and near the Aral Sea stay in place throughout.

ECM - similar to GFS but during the uncertain period up to Friday 16th keeps the LP a bit further S, i.e. over C France, so that there is a better chance of the weather remaining cold with winds from the E/NE rather than S/SE, maybe even with snow in the S.

GEFS - cold with temps typically 6C below norm, good agreement between ens members to Mon 12th, not bad agreement to Fri 16th, after which chaotic but a good chance of being back to norm by Wed 21st. Pptn in most ens members from Mon 12th in the S, a few days later in N, in the S heaviest and greatest probability around Sat 17th. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
nsrobins
06 December 2022 08:21:01
UKV continues to be bullish on an area of light snow in N Wales moving SSE late Thurs, and snow showers continue across N and C Scotland and appearing in the NE of England into Fri but elsewhere largely dry. For the majority of us the headline is cold, crisp days and frosty nights into the weekend with some impressive minima.
I concur features beyond the resolution of the ppn leaning models may develop short notice but if it's meaningful snow you're after, away from the usual places, you might have to wait until early next week. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+2
Rob K
06 December 2022 08:29:55

ECM with a fantasy run for parts of the south. Enjoy the output while it lasts. 😉

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Yes on the 00Z GFS it's the turn of those south of the M4, with 25cm of snow widely. We can dream... and as you say ECM looks not too dissimilar!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
06 December 2022 08:34:45

1995 did that from 35C on 1st Aug to -27.2 after xmas that year so a range of 62.2C.  40C to this if drop -23C somewhere then that a record range of 63C plus.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Actually the 1995 max was 35.2C to be precise, so the range was 62.4C which is a range of 112.3 degrees F. 

To get a 100F range this year which is 55.6C we would only need to dip to 40.3 – 55.6 = –15.3C. 

PS still no proper frost here this spell. I did have to scrape my windscreen last week about 8pm when I went to collect a takeaway curry but by the morning all the frost had gone. Last night only dipped to about 3C. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Arbroath 1320
06 December 2022 09:01:55
Still looking a solidly cold outlook for the next 6/7 days or so, with sharp frosts, low daytime maxima and snow in favoured spots.

The big difference in MO this morning is the volatility post 7 days. The models are really struggling to predict the path of the advancing LP from the SW which is key to determining the longevity of the cold spell beyond next mid-week. 

Another factor will be the actions of the weak trough which moves over us later this week. If it moves too far NW then a more straightforward breakdown may well occur. If it drops South, then we could end up with a bitter Easterly as the LP advances from the SW. 

A fascinating set up, which we used to see regularly in the Winters of the 1980s.

 
GGTTH
Jiries
06 December 2022 09:13:37

UKV continues to be bullish on an area of light snow in N Wales moving SSE late Thurs, and snow showers continue across N and C Scotland and appearing in the NE of England into Fri but elsewhere largely dry. For the majority of us the headline is cold, crisp days and frosty nights into the weekend with some impressive minima.
I concur features beyond the resolution of the ppn leaning models may develop short notice but if it's meaningful snow you're after, away from the usual places, you might have to wait until early next week. 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Rather not to wait next week and want this week to see snow features under cold LP which I expect lot of snow around otherwise very boring frosty spell with cold for nothing.  Total waste for high heating costs when get cold dry weather.  
Matty H
06 December 2022 09:19:11

Plus with lot of snow features from Thursday onward due to very unsettled cold LP and not a boring dry and frosty spell that come with HP on top of UK.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Might be wrong, but looks bone dry for most to me right into next week, which is too far off for specifics anyway 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
David M Porter
06 December 2022 09:22:00
Amazing output at the moment, it really is. If some of the charts shown at the moment materialise as shown, then as I think others have said, we may (big emphasis on may) be looking at something which would rival December 2010 and mid-December 2009 to mid-January 2010 as far as memorable cold spells are concerned.

It just goes to show how quickly things can change, even after such a long period of above average/well above average temperatures. I am willing to bet any amount of money that only three or so weeks ago, no one here would have believed that in the early days of December, we would now be seeing the model charts we are now seeing. Incredible.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gavin D
06 December 2022 09:28:07
00z ECM for London, a cold outlier at day 10, but not by a huge amount

UserPostedImage
fullybhoy
06 December 2022 09:57:29

Amazing output at the moment, it really is. If some of the charts shown at the moment materialise as shown, then as I think others have said, we may (big emphasis on may) be looking at something which would rival December 2010 and mid-December 2009 to mid-January 2010 as far as memorable cold spells are concerned.

It just goes to show how quickly things can change, even after such a long period of above average/well above average temperatures. I am willing to bet any amount of money that only three or so weeks ago, no one here would have believed that in the early days of December, we would now be seeing the model charts we are now seeing. Incredible.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



The big difference i think between just now and 2010 is , as far as i can remember in 2010 , especially up here, there seemed to be snow event after snow event, i just dont see that for here, very cold yes..........but dry i feel 
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
fairweather
06 December 2022 10:05:29

Well - WTF - this is something truly special and seemingly safe - with cross model agreement - (its like Ipswich winning 6-0 by half time and then sitting back and relaxing, watching the spectacle unfold - never happens - usually 1-0 at best and then we concede in the last minutes of injury time!) - just enjoying this advent like times of old. Wow! 
That GFS run shows the low beatling in to the south, packed full of energy, collide with the cold air and deliver 1979 type snow fall, that could be 2' deep and drifts to 10 ft, if that comes off.
Someone posted that the winter of discontent (1979) saw its memorable cold spel (and snowfall), 2010 was what it was - after the big banking depression and then now!  I did not imagine seeing another 1979 in my life time! That would be one for the history books - if it comes off: pardon this ramp.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 


I could be wrong but my recollection of 1979 was that the snow came in quite suddenly and only forecast at short notice. Of course that's how things were to an extent anyway then with the Radio 4 five to six  being the b all and end all for forecasts. Or maybe that was 1981, but certainly remember one of them was just feeling the temperature drop and then seeing the sky darken to the S.E. 
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
06 December 2022 10:12:01

The big difference I think between just now and 2010 is , as far as i can remember in 2010 , especially up here, there seemed to be snow event after snow event, I just dont see that for here, very cold yes..........but dry i feel 

Originally Posted by: fullybhoy 


Yes, it was better the further north and west you were. In extreme S.E and East Anglia it was a cold start but any snow became marginal uite quickly around Christmas.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
06 December 2022 10:16:10

Still looking a solidly cold outlook for the next 6/7 days or so, with sharp frosts, low daytime maxima and snow in favoured spots.

The big difference in MO this morning is the volatility post 7 days. The models are really struggling to predict the path of the advancing LP from the SW which is key to determining the longevity of the cold spell beyond next mid-week. 

Another factor will be the actions of the weak trough which moves over us later this week. If it moves too far NW then a more straightforward breakdown may well occur. If it drops South, then we could end up with a bitter Easterly as the LP advances from the SW. 

A fascinating set up, which we used to see regularly in the Winters of the 1980s.
 

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 


I don't agree with the bold bit. I think post 7 days it was always quite volatile and nearly always is when looking longer term at a unique cold spell. 🙂
S.Essex, 42m ASL
nsrobins
06 December 2022 10:18:40

I could be wrong but my recollection of 1979 was that the snow came in quite suddenly and only forecast at short notice. Of course that's how things were to an extent anyway then with the Radio 4 five to six  being the b all and end all for forecasts. Or maybe that was 1981, but certainly remember one of them was just feeling the temperature drop and then seeing the sky darken to the S.E. 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Don't forget the premium rate phone lines (no, not those ones :)). For a pound a minute you could get a 15 day outlook on the phone. I think the data was generated in China.

With respect the trend towards Day 9 I'm sensing an stronger signal for an easterly (drift to moderate) flow which would drag some of those -10 uppers into the UK mix with attendant snow shower risk down the east side. As for the middle of next week, I'm not speculating but it looks 'interesting'.
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
fairweather
06 December 2022 10:21:35
I know we don't put much emphasis on snow rows but I think they do reflect a certain relative risk of snow. I mean they are always zero in July😂 I see Norwich has a 28 for Thursday which seems high. And a total of 128 compared to about half that for London. Not sure if that reflects its relative northerness or the N.Sea and showers influence. Hope it is the latter.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Russwirral
06 December 2022 10:21:46

Might be wrong, but looks bone dry for most to me right into next week, which is too far off for specifics anyway 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Aye - rather than seeing new features develop the charts have gotten drier and drier.  Looks very cold mind.  Time to study the hi res models as we are now in that time frame.  Notice UKV is keeping one or two features in the mix.  Nothing more.

Saturday night looks bitter with country wide sub zero temps kicking off as soon as the sun goes down.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
nsrobins
06 December 2022 10:29:40
It's getting silly now - at 180 onwards GFS 06Z has energy stalling and disrupting SE under a freezing ESE flow. Snow incoming from the SW. And heights strengthening again across Griceland to keep the mean flow easterly into late next week.
Experience would dictate there has to be a moderation of sorts before this gets into the 120hr range, especially with the sub tropical uncertainties, but maybe just for once this is the real deal and what a shock it's going to be.
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

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