theweatheroutlook

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Gusty
05 December 2022 19:08:31
Little mention of the GEM tonight...another stunning run with longevity at the heart of its output.
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



dagspot
05 December 2022 19:13:12

People spend ages chasing cold, when it comes they look for the end.

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Yeah thats bugging me already...
Neilston 600ft ASL
Rob K
05 December 2022 19:22:39

ECM looks like being the grinch this evening, I'll stick with GEM 😀

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


OK that run didn't go quite how I thought it would. Looked all over by T144 but the blocking fought back. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Jiries
05 December 2022 19:22:55

ECM is fantastic.

I love the way the cold air stagnates for a couple of days ahead of an attack from the SW 80's style.
The icing on the cake for me would be to get an early dusting, say Thurs/Friday out of it. That's maybe asking a bit too much though.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



No you not asking too much, we are totally entitled for proper snow cover from Thursday onward after not seeing snow here for a long time.  If was going to be boring dry and frosty spell then like the zonal set-up the model thread here and in NW would had been dead quiet in the first place.
Frosty weather is very boring as there no use to play with ice or walk on it. 
Gandalf The White
05 December 2022 19:26:57

Yeah thats bugging me already...

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



It happens every year.  Occasionally I have pointed out that even in the famous 1962/63 winter the charts would have been throwing up mild options.  I think the key point is that a long cold spell usually comes with various pattern changes; you just don't get a rigid pattern stuck for several weeks on end. 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
05 December 2022 19:31:33
A prolonged deep cold is one thing, but an extended spell of mediocre cold is another. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Russwirral
05 December 2022 19:32:59
Quite a dry update from ECM.

Not quite as cold as the other models with a general move back to mild by the end.

Coastal wintry showers here and there... no real big snow events to speak of.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
ballamar
05 December 2022 19:44:57

Quite a dry update from ECM.

Not quite as cold as the other models with a general move back to mild by the end.

Coastal wintry showers here and there... no real big snow events to speak of.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



to be honest there is little point looking at precipitation- cold air, cold dew points and disturbances can crop up at short notice
doctormog
05 December 2022 19:50:56

Quite a dry update from ECM.

Not quite as cold as the other models with a general move back to mild by the end.

Coastal wintry showers here and there... no real big snow events to speak of.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



This is the mean by day 10: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png 

A general move back to mild?
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Gusty
05 December 2022 20:09:48

This is the mean by day 10: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png 

A general move back to mild?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Not by the looks of that ! 
It would need a SW'ly to shift all that cold in situ. Upper air profiles may have moderated somewhat but the surface will be frigid by that stage.
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Rob K
05 December 2022 20:26:12
Friday to Wednesday now not getting above 1C here on the IBM model used by the iPhone app. Overnight lows -3 to -5 so pretty chilly. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
White Meadows
05 December 2022 20:48:56
Our old friend the Azores High looks like spoiling the party by this time next week, at least for the southern half of the UK
Taylor1740
05 December 2022 21:13:41
Seems like there is a lot of obsessing over day 10+ charts on whether it will turn milder or not. It will of course turn milder at some point but even if it's at day 10 that would still be a lengthy cold spell. Cold spells generally don't last longer than 10-14 days and even in the Winter of 63 I'm sure there were some brief milder interludes. Anyway I don't think there is a clear signal yet for it to turn milder at day 10+ I'd say there is currently at least a 50% chance it will remain cold.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
ballamar
05 December 2022 21:22:23

Our old friend the Azores High looks like spoiling the party by this time next week, at least for the southern half of the UK

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



struggling to see that
some faraway beach
05 December 2022 21:26:01
While we're on the subject of the iPhone app, I see that my cousins in Sumy, Ukraine, are suffering a high of -3C and a low of -11C today. I can't tell you how they're doing, because the whole city has had its electricity knocked out by the Russian filth today.

BUT ... next Monday shows a high of 8C and a minimum of 4C, and that's why I'm cheering on this cold blast for the British Isles. It really benefits the people who really need help.
2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Brian Gaze
05 December 2022 21:33:33
ECM ENS looks consistent with GEFS.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Gandalf The White
05 December 2022 21:39:01

struggling to see that

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Mainly because it's not there.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Jiries
05 December 2022 21:55:48

While we're on the subject of the iPhone app, I see that my cousins in Sumy, Ukraine, are suffering a high of -3C and a low of -11C today. I can't tell you how they're doing, because the whole city has had its electricity knocked out by the Russian filth today.

BUT ... next Monday shows a high of 8C and a minimum of 4C, and that's why I'm cheering on this cold blast for the British Isles. It really benefits the people who really need help.

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 



Toronto, Canada it looking mild for a week ahead without snow so that cheering for me because that mean cold and snow in here will be good chance.  Always does that when Canada is milder, that happened in Feb 1991 as well when NY was 21C.
Karl Guille
05 December 2022 22:06:17
At T120 on the GFS 18z the Low over the UK flattens enough to produce an easterly of sorts with colder uppers heading westwards across the North Sea.
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022120518/gfs-0-120.png?18 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Lionel Hutz
05 December 2022 22:09:19

to be honest there is little point looking at precipitation- cold air, cold dew points and disturbances can crop up at short notice

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Absolutely. On Saturday last, the forecast for my location for the following day was for mainly dry conditions. As it happened, we had heavy showers for most of the Sunday coming off the Irish Sea(and still continuing today). If only it had been cold enough for snow! These situations are inherently hard to predict so I certainly wouldn't rule out showery conditions next weekend at this early stage.

I would add that 1inch of rain would give 1 foot of snow. Obviously, I'm not predicting that much snow but the point is that it doesn't necessarily take all that much precipitation to give a decent bit of snow.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Jiries
05 December 2022 22:12:07

Absolutely. On Saturday last, the forecast for my location for the following day was for mainly dry conditions. As it happened, we had heavy showers for most of the Sunday coming off the Irish Sea(and still continuing today). If only it had been cold enough for snow! These situations are inherently hard to predict so I certainly wouldn't rule out showery conditions next weekend at this early stage.

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 



Same here unforecast rain on and off last 3 days when it supposed to be HP dry and overcast.  I still expecting this coming unsettled but very cold should bring lot of snow at times.
Karl Guille
05 December 2022 22:20:30
Remaining cold for most in 8 days time according to the GFS 18z.
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022120518/gfs-1-180.png?18 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Rob K
05 December 2022 22:20:51
18Z GFS is really rather cold. Snow covering much of the UK apart from the usual tropical zone south of the M4. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Russwirral
05 December 2022 22:30:08
Continued signals for a large snow storm into northern areas of Europe next monday.... has been on all the last few days runs. 

This is edging closer and closer to the UK. Having gone from an Austria-Balklands event to now a Denmark-Germany event.

One to watch.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Brian Gaze
05 December 2022 22:32:30
GFS 18z in decent fettle tonight.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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