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Jacee
17 December 2022 11:37:29

I think the reality is that the output looks drab and forgettably mild for the populous areas of southern Britain in the reliable. “Uncertainty” is often a hidden synonym for “likely mild” on weather forums.
 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Would you not say that 'likely mild' is the default option anyway? I think using the term uncertainty should mean exactly that - i.e. there is not much concensus from the models on any particular solution verifying and we need to wait a few more days before the favoured solution emerges.

I agree that the interest wanes the further south you are though... I am really hoping the clusters going for something colder from around the 25-27th are onto something, as I think there are tentative footseps in that direction when comparing yesterday's 12z to today's 00z outputs 😊 Merry Christmas!
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
+1
roadrunnerajn
17 December 2022 11:39:49
As Gandalf has said above we are balanced between two contrasting weather systems at play. My concern is that the slightly higher pressure over Europe will divert the lows further north. I feel  high pressure is like a  pebble in a stream and the lows as the water, it would need the jet to help push the lows further SE. This year that’s still a possibility unlike other years.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
Tim A
17 December 2022 11:39:53
Tricky 24 hours of forecasting coming up. 
You could  be forgiven in thinking the cold spell is over here,  long standing frost is melting with a temp of 3c and sleety showers. .
Temp expected to be above freezing till the early hours when a SE flow will bring it back to -2c and the freezing rain looks to be the main hazard tomorrow with an amber warning out.  Can't see much in the way of precipitation though on the models with the band fragmenting. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Brian Gaze
17 December 2022 11:41:50
GEFS35 currently suggesting a mild first half of January in the south at least.


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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gary L
17 December 2022 11:44:41

GEFS35 currently suggesting a mild first half of January in the south at least.


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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Have these been shown to have any skill at that range? I wonder if they picked up the current cold spell for example.
Gandalf The White
17 December 2022 11:57:31

I’m looking at a much bigger area than that. South of say the river Tees it’s looking mild and largely forgettable to my eye. Things could shift as next weekend is a fair time away. But I’d say mild for the vast majority of the UK population is very much the form horse. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



I was looking at the big picture; I’m not sure what ‘big picture’ you think you’re trying to see?  The entire universe?

When I plug in Teeside on the latest GFS run I get the princely total of 4 mild options out of 32, and none of them last into Xmas.

I have no problem with proper analysis that reflects the model output and concludes that mild weather is the favoured outcome. I do have a problem with opinion dressed up as pseudo analysis which doesn’t properly reflect the current output.

As Brian and one or two others have said, the background signals towards month end and into January may not be favouring renewed cold, but next year is still about 350 hours away. That puts it very firmly into guesswork territory.
 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+2
Brian Gaze
17 December 2022 11:59:37

Have these been shown to have any skill at that range? I wonder if they picked up the current cold spell for example.

Originally Posted by: Gary L 



IMO they are surprisingly useful, underrated  and underused. They did well with the cold spell which is now ending and have the advantage of updating every day, unlike ECM which is 2 or 3 time per week I believe. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Gandalf The White
17 December 2022 11:59:56

Have these been shown to have any skill at that range? I wonder if they picked up the current cold spell for example.

Originally Posted by: Gary L 



Brian said that they signalled the end of the current cold spell quite well, although the transition is at the back end of the spread. I don’t recall it picking up either the start, intensity or duration of what we’ve seen these past two weeks. Maybe Brian can recall?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Downpour
17 December 2022 12:05:26

I was looking at the big picture; I’m not sure what ‘big picture’ you think you’re trying to see?  The entire universe?

When I plug in Teeside on the latest GFS run I get the princely total of 4 mild options out of 32, and none of them last into Xmas.

I have no problem with proper analysis that reflects the model output and concludes that mild weather is the favoured outcome. I do have a problem with opinion dressed up as pseudo analysis which doesn’t properly reflect the current output.

As Brian and one or two others have said, the background signals towards month end and into January may not be favouring renewed cold, but next year is still about 350 hours away. That puts it very firmly into guesswork territory.
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



I’m looking at the general theme of all modelling. Looks mild for the majority to me. We’ll see if I’m right.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Justin W
17 December 2022 12:05:55

GEFS35 currently suggesting a mild first half of January in the south at least.


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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Very much in line with the MetO seasonal forecast.
Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
White Meadows
17 December 2022 12:11:29

GEFS35 currently suggesting a mild first half of January in the south at least.


UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


This would fit well with the Met office extended summary, along with the latest contingency planners  update reaching into February.
Gusty
17 December 2022 12:11:32

GEFS35 currently suggesting a mild first half of January in the south at least.


UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



It will be interesting to see if that subtle mild hump around the 5-9th January comes to fruition. I'll be watching closely. 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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doctormog
17 December 2022 12:33:03
For more northern parts the trend is similar on the 06z GEFS ensemble data to the previous set https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25&runpara=0&type=6&ext=1 

So, potentially wintry over the Christmas period.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
17 December 2022 12:34:57

IMO they are surprisingly useful, underrated  and underused. They did well with the cold spell which is now ending and have the advantage of updating every day, unlike ECM which is 2 or 3 time per week I believe. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


They more or less agreed with the agencies calling for a front loaded winter and from what I’m seeing I can’t go against a mildish middle part. 
I think we missed the jackpot here (channel low) by a synoptic whisker but there’s plenty of time left yet (there, I’ve said it and it’s out of my system). 
Thaw of ice well underway in 6C sunshine.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
tallyho_83
17 December 2022 13:19:15

Have these been shown to have any skill at that range? I wonder if they picked up the current cold spell for example.

Originally Posted by: Gary L 



Yes good point actually Gary. This currently cold spell has lasted well over a week and it's been colder than average for over 2 weeks at least and no model forecast this cold spell to last so long not even the met Office. We had a northerly then easterly followed by North easterly and again northerly etc. Typical of a negative AO and NAO which ties in with a La Nina winter which usually favours a colder start. I just hope there is more to come....😀

So who knows what will happen? If we get a SSW due to the strength and persistence of this huge Siberian high then things could change once again.

Just saw the 06z and shows this colder blip around Xmas will only affect northern areas but then after there is a lot of scatter some ENS members go down or even below the -10c isothem at 850hpa where as others go up to +8c at 850hpa.

Also worth nothing that the control run in the 06z plunges us into the freezer and is a cold outlier where as the 06z operational is a mild outlier. A lot of uncertainty.... 🤷‍♂️🤔

Look forward to see the 12z run.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


John p
17 December 2022 13:29:34

Those useless 100% on models cannot work out to move LP or HP freely as Earth rotates but go back to the past newspapers, Ceefax and TV forecasts would simply say it move down to the south anyway after entering Scotland.  No way it can't be stuck forever in same place for a very small landmass.  
Newspapers : Snow moving in Scotland and rain in the south, this will move down and turning to snow while clearer weather in Scotland.
Ceefax ;  Green rain England, white snow Scotland, next page white England and blue or yellow Scotland for clearer weather.
TV forecast.  Snow and rain sysbol change over.
Models on 21st Centrey - Crap and cannot work out at all so they decided to stick the LP in same place even with Earth rotates it should move to other country.  Window watching the way to go sadly as there no other source to know what will happen.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



What the hell are you on about? 
Camberley, Surrey
+3
CField
17 December 2022 13:37:58
Like the look of the GEM at 216hrs showing a plunge of lows south well into the Balkans.This could open a gateway for the Siberian high to advect westwards squeezing the Euro high and the stubborn Svalbard lows away.Could be some cold rainy days for the New Year before another freeze arrives.All to play for this winter at least for the next two weeks.Be nice to get January in the freezer.
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Gusty
17 December 2022 15:31:43
Icon first out of the blocks and its a ho ho no.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ico&var=1&time=180&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3 
 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



+1
doctormog
17 December 2022 16:00:04
We’ll see. I know it’s a different run of a different model but the ICON 180hr chart’s t850 value here is over 7°C higher than the GFS and ECM 00z ensemble means for the same time point.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
squish
17 December 2022 16:06:56
Marginally promising 12z GFS thus far
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
dagspot
17 December 2022 16:09:24

Marginally

Originally Posted by: squish 


Noone likes marginal! 😂
Neilston 600ft ASL
squish
17 December 2022 16:10:06
As is ukmo again…

should raise a few eyebrows 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
dagspot
17 December 2022 16:12:23
I always like the Snow Risk GFS animation maps which seem to just consistently have apparently random seemingly significant snow events! 
 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Zubzero
17 December 2022 16:18:21

I always like the Snow Risk GFS animation maps which seem to just consistently have apparently random seemingly significant snow events! 
 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



You would be In awe of the GEM ones then 😉 
+1
squish
17 December 2022 16:20:37
GEM is also promising but to be honest it’s still too far out to predict the weather at the end of next week. The cold boundary probably a touch further south on the 12zs
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl

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