theweatheroutlook

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doctormog
20 December 2022 12:20:20
More runs needed. (™Retron 2001) 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Gandalf The White
20 December 2022 12:29:54

A few days ago the -5C isotherm (GEFS mean chart) was south of the M62 at 12z Christmas Day. It’s much further north (north of the Scottish border) now so the likelihood is we are now too far south for cold Christmas Day (according to the GEFS). 

However just to emphasise the uncertainty - the ECM det run has it cold enough for wintry showers by the evening time on Christmas Day, in complete contrast to the MetO global model which has us under mild southerlies! 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_138_1.png 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPEU00_138_1.png 
 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Hi Joe, yes, uncertainty is the favoured word still.  For my location the short GEFS suite at 850hPa shows that late on Xmas Eve and through Xmas Day the Op was in the upper quartile or top decile, suggesting it might be overdoing the northern push of the milder air somewhat - but the mean 2m temperature spread is 6c min and 7-8c max
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Gandalf The White
20 December 2022 12:31:34

More runs needed. (™Retron 2001) 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



LOL. Is the royalty payment on its way to Kent?

I think you could still be quoting that for Xmas Day as late as Saturday’s 00z runs.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
westv
20 December 2022 12:31:45

More runs needed. (™Retron 2001) 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


All to play for. 
Where is the "man that the Met Office fears" when you need him?!
At least it will be mild!
moomin75
20 December 2022 12:55:55
Has to be said, a very bog standard and average GEFS 6Z for England and Wales.Not much sign at all of any agreement, but is largely looking bang average in terms of temperatures and wet. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Taylor1740
20 December 2022 13:21:28

Has to be said, a very bog standard and average GEFS 6Z for England and Wales.Not much sign at all of any agreement, but is largely looking bang average in terms of temperatures and wet. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


yes I do feel we are getting close now though to cross model agreement on a spell of average temperatures.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
ballamar
20 December 2022 14:24:33

yes I do feel we are getting close now though to cross model agreement on a spell of average temperatures.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


tag team back again 
+1
Snow Hoper
20 December 2022 14:46:58

All to play for. 
Where is the "man that the Met Office fears" when you need him?!

Originally Posted by: westv 



Wasnt that Tom P (what's his name)?

As for the models. If they dont know, neither do ANY of us😜
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
sunnyday
20 December 2022 14:47:57
Presutti?
Saint Snow
20 December 2022 15:13:15
The clincher is whether Gary Sarre is confident

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
20 December 2022 15:15:41

Presutti?

Originally Posted by: sunnyday 



It was.

He was like a little Pied Piper for winter-lovers in the first couple of years of TWO. Sounded totally plausible when he was telling us that all our metorological dreams were going to come true for winter.

There was another Matty H, too. But the other took himself way too seriously and I think he flounced out in a huff.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
moomin75
20 December 2022 15:30:12
ICON 12z first out of the blocks, and surprise surprise, it's mobile and zonal.Mild too by the end. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Whiteout
20 December 2022 15:30:45
Met not backing down, still expect cold to run North to South.
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
fairweather
20 December 2022 15:38:29

Good post and sums up the fascinating set up this week and into the Xmas period.  I’m also 100% with you on the uplifting effects of blue skies and lying snow; it’s one of the main reasons for wanting colder weather - to break up the otherwise dull and gloomy December/January period around the winter solstice.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes, last week was fantastic from that point of view. A combination not seen here for years before.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
20 December 2022 15:42:29

It was.

He was like a little Pied Piper for winter-lovers in the first couple of years of TWO. Sounded totally plausible when he was telling us that all our metorological dreams were going to come true for winter.

There was another Matty H, too. But the other took himself way too seriously and I think he flounced out in a huff.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 Then the late great Joe ******i, the Donald Trump of cold weather predictions. His were always the biggliest, bestest and always there.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
moomin75
20 December 2022 15:50:46

Then the late great Joe ******i, the Donald Trump of cold weather predictions. His were always the biggliest, bestest and always there.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Off topic here, but I believe Joe is still with us, so is not late, but definitely is great. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gary L
20 December 2022 15:51:46

ICON 12z first out of the blocks, and surprise surprise, it's mobile and zonal.Mild too by the end. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



The ICON op anyway has been pretty consistent in not bringing in the cold recently.

Probably eat my words after the 12z runs but I'm going to put my money on the tightening ECM cluster (mean -5c 850s) on Boxing Day (Manchester), and the UKMET sticking to the colder air returning south.
Brian Gaze
20 December 2022 15:52:44
No announcement yet, but GFS 12z is running late.

Edit:  The status page suggests a 15 to 30 minute delay with the 12z cycle.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
20 December 2022 15:52:53

Then the late great Joe ******i, the Donald Trump of cold weather predictions. His were always the biggliest, bestest and always there.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



He's not dead at least as far as I know
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
squish
20 December 2022 16:33:31
A quick look at the 12z's show the big US low now breaking south of Greenland ( not going up the west), heights collapsing over Greenland and back to a strong jet and standard zonal conditions for the time of year.

GFS obviously stuck as it now realises it got it wrong!

Still a bit of interest in the short term around 24-25th up North, else that's it for now iMHO
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
moomin75
20 December 2022 16:33:35
12z UKMO follows ICON and is equally as dreadful. 
What a dismal sight it is.
GFS up next. I think it will continue its backtrack to the Euros. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Hippydave
20 December 2022 16:37:48
Another GFS op run showing significant snowfall for fairly large parts of Scotland - might be a bit of a sleet/rain fest at times for lower ground but even here there looks a decent chance of at least some snow depending on LP track etc. 

Not IMBY but a cracking setup for some, with snow falling over a 2-3 day period and generally from organised fronts. I'd imagine there could be some really impressive totals over the Highlands etc.

I won't comment too much on the weather IMBY as it just looks damp and rather tedious🤣 (Upto T123 at least anyway!).
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
squish
20 December 2022 16:42:25
GFS still sticking to its guns of a sort...which does involve heights keeping high over Greenland and the big US low not breaking out into the Atlantic. Very different from UKMO at +120 and even more at +144!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
moomin75
20 December 2022 16:53:54
GFS is pretty dire too...so that's 3 of the big 4 all getting a modicum of agreement.No snow for most away from mountain tops on the 3 so far. ECM next up. Pretty sure it will complete a crap set.​​​​​​​Let's look to January for something better.   
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
idj20
20 December 2022 17:11:00
A notable difference at Boxing Day (144 hrs away) with GFS showing a compact but active low taking a shortcut NEwards over the UK while UKMO has high pressure slap bang over the country (sorry Jiries). Much rather have the latter as I'm fed up with Autumnal-like rain and wind. Wonder what ECM will come up with, probably a halfway house with the continuation of this slack maritime SW airflow, similar to GEM.
Folkestone Harbour. 

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