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Matty H
21 December 2022 01:22:48

Of course the easiest way to stop the childish bickering would be for Brian to define the temperature ranges for the categories of mild, average, below average and cold. because from my neutral position I am seeing it being more about semantics than the weather! There are people calling "mild" because it isn't below -3C 850hPa and others calling "cold spell" because it isn't above -3C ! Hence the problem. Seeing the same thing and calling it different. One man's meat is another man's gravy. 😂

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Both sides are as bad as each other. Michael is, and has always been, as bad as the mild reporters for his “for here” or highlighting the always colder slant, but so what? Who cares? Why are people so bent on proving others wrong ahead of the event? It’s rather silly. Just accept people have different preferences etc and move on. Why the need to always challenge views in such a condescending way??? That’s rhetorical by the way

To the likes of Moomin, Doc, Downpour, Taylor etc, just post your points. They may well be wrong, but don’t always feel you have to jump on each other to be the bigger man (or woman. Wouldn’t want to upset the snowflakes further). 

I did it the other day with Jiries admittedly, but we are talking another level of posting nonsense here. At least the argumentative candidates  I have listed try to put across a methodology 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+5
tallyho_83
21 December 2022 01:45:40

Thanks 👍 

18z gfs is not good mid-long term, collapses the mid Atlantic ridge the lows then hit a brick wall just before the UK Drawing up southerlys.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=234&mode=0 
 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



I saw the 18z GFS Operational- looks very uninspiring really.

Plus the low pressure just stalls and keeps re developing to the NW of Ireland in N Atlantic and dragging up southerly winds as you said. The 18z However, this 18z Operational is one of the mildest runs on the 26th, 27th and 28th anyway! However, the 18z Control run shows something more seasonal from mid-longer term. Otherwise it's business as usual. - Least there is a colder blip around and just after Xmas to make it feel seasonal. 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


nsrobins
21 December 2022 07:17:41
The easement towards a mostly average to mild and unsettled outlook continues, as illustrated by the ensemble plot for London with no runs reaching -10 now. 
There may be some wintryness somewhere in the next week, but for the majority none. 
I don’t have the time or inclination to analyse which model said what and when - it’s just the weather after all - but with the global riders apparently still conducive for G-Scandy HLB, things could switch again at any time. 
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Brian Gaze
21 December 2022 07:20:08
Interesting ECM t+240. It looks more like 2014 (or whichever year that very wet winter was) with Greenland going purple. 

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
moomin75
21 December 2022 07:35:41
And the collapse of cold us now complete with a return to mild zonal unsettled conditions now pretty much nailed on.I am not disappointed to see this in many ways, as unlike many in here, I could see the writing was on the walls days ago.Yes there was some flip flopping on GFS, but it was always pretty obvious that there would not be another imminent cold spell, and away from favoured spots in the the North, this trend has been developing. I do fear that it will a very long way back to cold, as it will be very tough to get out of the new Zonal rut.​​​​​​​I have some hope for later in January perhaps, but feel that is your lot for several weeks (perhaps 3 or 4 at least).  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+1
doctormog
21 December 2022 07:47:22
After days of uncertainty there does seem to be a bit more of a consensus today with the more extreme options being removed from the current offering. Rather than any clear shift overnight there seems to simply be more clarity. I suspect this may continue through today where the track of the low pressure systems is tightened even more. 

Essentially it is looking quite unsettled with temperatures not that far from average over the festive period (a bit colder than average in the north and a bit milder in the south).

Most people recognised the uncertainty in recent days, others ignored it and opted for one of the many options - a premature lucky guess based on psychology is not model analysis.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Heavy Weather 2013
21 December 2022 07:53:24
It’s clear now reviewing the output that their has now been a shift away from potential cold at this time.

That comment is based on model analysis, as at times in the last 7 days there have been some fantastic charts being churned out. Of course sticking a default mild mild mild win, would always be correct eventually, but that’s not model analysis of what has been shown.

Equally never useful to write of entire month of winter because one type of pattern is shown. Let’s see where we are again in seven days.

 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
+2
Whether Idle
21 December 2022 07:56:55
The models are now suggesting I will save £10 per day on gas for heating my house compared with the period 8-18 December.  I will happily pocket the 10 day savings of £100 out until 1st January.😊

So pretty much a win-win.  If its cold I enjoy the frost or the prospect of wintriness.  If its mild I save money.  A long fetch southwesterly in winter has never been more appealing.😆

The same will go for many on here I suspect.
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
+3
moomin75
21 December 2022 08:00:41
You can't call looking at the models (as a whole) and making a call based on them a "lucky guess."

I used to be guilty of taking one model run in isolation and making "guesses" which occasionally came through (luckily) but more often than not were wrong.

What I've done this time is wait for all the main models to complete their runs, then made a prediction based on what I saw.

As the GFS was completely on its own for days on end, I went with the majority that it looked largely mild, unsettled and predominantly wet.

That is not a guess, that's a forecast, which is what all the pros do as well.

Just because I (may) turn out to have called it correctly for once, doesn't make it a guess, and it doesn't mean I'm happy with it.

I would have loved nothing more than a seasonally wintry Christmas and New Year, but the facts are, this was always highly unlikely.

I do feel that at some stage this winter, we may hit the jackpot, because background signals remain that the atmosphere in our neck of the woods is not in its usual default state.

However, looking at how things stand as of this morning, I think a good deal of patience and perseverance will be required.

And yes, perhaps a bit of luck too. I will now take a break from model watching until after Christmas, so I would like to wish everyone in here a very Merry Christmas and even to those who vehemently disagree with me and my posting style, no hard feelings, it's a place to aire freedom of speech, and I take on the chin all comments aimed at me, whether they are supportive or not.

A special thanks to Brian Gaze, who gave us this wonderful place to sound off all those years ago.

He inspires all of us via this Forum, and I don't know what I'd be without the opportunity he gives us all to be amateur forecasters.

Have a lovely time everyone. And see you on the other side. ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​Kieren.       
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+2
Jiries
21 December 2022 08:05:16

After days of uncertainty there does seem to be a bit more of a consensus today with the more extreme options being removed from the current offering. Rather than any clear shift overnight there seems to simply be more clarity. I suspect this may continue through today where the track of the low pressure systems is tightened even more. 

Essentially it is looking quite unsettled with temperatures not that far from average over the festive period (a bit colder than average in the north and a bit milder in the south).

Most people recognised the uncertainty in recent days, others ignored it and opted for one of the many options - a premature lucky guess based on psychology is not model analysis.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



The way the models had been useless and not figure how to send the LP east or SE and decided to keep the dividing line forever in a very small landmass for days.  I checked Toronto forecast is not getting very cold only poxy -8 and slight below ice day temps with light snow? Been reading posts about extreme cold winter storm charts to strike is either false or models gone way over the top with extreme cold there and put uncertainty over the xmas period?  
Brian Gaze
21 December 2022 08:21:59
We have a similar debate here every year. 😀 This could turn out to be a mild winter which produced one period of severe wintry weather - The Troll of Trondheim - but it is far too early to draw conclusions. In recent days I have read comments about "experts" elsewhere who are explaining why another very cold spell in the near future is "nailed on". As usual the predictions turn out to be more miss than hit because the blunt truth is that the best way of looking into the future, albeit not a very reliable one, is to study the data spewed out by a few of the models.

The NCEP  / ECMWF / UK Met suites are more than enough unless people are bored and trying to fill in time. Needless to say there will be comments about the model data jumping around, but if people didn't hang on to every run it would be make life a lot easier. In my update on 13/12 I suggested the chance of a nationwide cold spell returning during 20/12 to 26/12 was approximately 25%. In the days which followed that number would have fluctuated, but I'm confident that when averaged out over a period of days it would not have approached 50%. 

Just my take. 🙄 The Met Office update today will be worth a read but my guess is they will angle it in a less wintry direction on the whole than the current forecast.   
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+2
doctormog
21 December 2022 08:30:01
I don't think it's a case of the models "jumping around" rather a large amount of chaos/disorder/entropy associated with the jetstream's proximity to the UK. Small changes between runs and small perturbations in the ensemble members have understandably producted a significant range of options. As the timescale has shortened these options and "swings" have become less as you would expect. 

As for the longer range outlook? I have no idea!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
21 December 2022 08:45:20
Looks like the low pressure which was forecast to be crossing the middle of the UK for Christmas is now going to spin across Scotland keeping the bulk of the country in milder air, and making it less snowy even for southern Scotland.

Longer term some of the output is suggesting a return to more familiar Euro high and a more mobile pattern (eg GFS op run, ECM op run) but still a fair bit of scatter on the ensembles. 

Also worth pointing out that the GFS control actually still brings a fair chance of a technical white Christmas for a fair chunk of the country. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 December 2022 08:52:56
Today's throw of the dice? As I start to post this, it's just begun to rain heavily, which could easily be an omen for the next few days. anyway, this is what the charts show:

WX temps: any sustained sub-zero weather is kept to the north of a line Iceland - S Norway - N Caspian (N Scotland on the fringe of this) for two weeks ahead. In terms of longterm averages Europe is very warm; only N Scandinavia is cold in week 1, though there is some much colder air from the NE into N Russia week 2. Rain also consistent for the next 2 weeks, sticking with Atlantic coasts and that includes the whole of Britain. UK weather headlines are more likely to be about floods than snow.

GFS Op: generally LPs run NE-ly past Scotland with SW-lies for Britain and on into Europe, and little in the way of N-lies as they pas by before the next LP moves up. To pick out a few - 970mb Rockall today, 980mb W Isles Sun 25th, 985mb Orkney Thu 29th, 975mb W Isles Fri 6th. There is a brief respite with temporarily higher pressure around Mon 2nd. 

Jet: All this is being achieved without much support from the jetstream, which although present in the Atlantic is not strong - so LPs not excessively deep, and no severe gales (ATM the jet is very strong and continuous in the Pacific)

ECM: same sort of pattern as GFS but with some differences in timing and position. LPs now, 990mb W Ireland Sun 25th, 980mb Shetland Sat 31st, and more of an increase in pressure briefly between these two.

GEFS: temp briefly above norm just for the S Fri 23rd, otherwise generally decreasing to a little below Tue 27th (esp the control) then the mean stays above norm to Fri 6th in the middle of a spread of ens members extending about 8C on either side. Some rain in all runs from time to time throughout. More variation in both temp and intensity of rainfall further N but trends similar; snow row figures generally smaller than yesterday, very few in double figures except at Aviemore.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Tim A
21 December 2022 09:06:05

Looks like the low pressure which was forecast to be crossing the middle of the UK for Christmas is now going to spin across Scotland keeping the bulk of the country in milder air, and making it less snowy even for southern Scotland.

Longer term some of the output is suggesting a return to more familiar Euro high and a more mobile pattern (eg GFS op run, ECM op run) but still a fair bit of scatter on the ensembles. 

Also worth pointing out that the GFS control actually still brings a fair chance of a technical white Christmas for a fair chunk of the country. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



GFS Seems to show phantom snow events again at 144-168 hours for Central areas.  But like you say for Xmas Eve/Day , it previously did this and now has shifted this risk much further north in line with other models.  I expect the same for the days 27-28th unfortunately. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Brian Gaze
21 December 2022 09:12:45
ECM ENS still showing a colder incurision in the south ~27/12 then it's looking mostly mild.  I'd be very surprised now if the Met don't reposition their extended range outlook later today.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx?run=latest&chartname=ecmwfens850&chartlocation=london 
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
21 December 2022 09:19:17
The jet stream loop over the UK looks like it could set-up, hopefully not. There were signs a few days ago this would not be the case so hopefully being the different December we have had we will see a quick return to some potential. At the moment we might need to endure some wet and windy conditions.first! 
Downpour
21 December 2022 09:25:38
An even clearer trend to a milder outlook on the models this morning. Yet perhaps a chance of squeezing out a dryish day on the 25th, with temps perhaps above average. 

Thereafter perhaps a slide back towards average towards the end of the reliable. No great shocks for me and in line with what the the totality of the main models have been indicating for some time. 

I return Kieren’s Christmas wishes and apologise for misspelling his name earlier! 

 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
ballamar
21 December 2022 10:34:27
GFS to me looks like it could throw up a few surprise synoptics in 8-10 days for a few mainly northern areas which fits in with a UK winter. A low across the Midlands invariably would lead to heavy snow in the north.
Euro high doesn’t look too prominent either, which would help if it’s cold you want
Ally Pally Snowman
21 December 2022 10:39:33
Well the GFS 6z has a Boxing day blizzard for the South. 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/126h.htm 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/hauteur-neige/132h.htm 

Looks like Moomin's house is the sweet spot..😁🌨☃️
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
idj20
21 December 2022 10:41:51
LOL at GFS's idea of a Boxing Day storm passing over Kent with the worst of it literally at my front door, then followed by a train of compact lows taking a short cut through the UK Winter 2014-style. Yeah, that one can also go in the bin.
Folkestone Harbour. 
ballamar
21 December 2022 10:53:28

LOL at GFS's idea of a Boxing Day storm passing over Kent with the worst of it literally at my front door, then followed by a train of compact lows taking a short cut through the UK Winter 2014-style. Yeah, that one can also go in the bin.

Originally Posted by: idj20 



Enjoy it and think of it as a potential new trend 
Essan
21 December 2022 10:55:09
GFS 06z has definitely been on the Christmas sherry 🤣
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Heavy Weather 2013
21 December 2022 11:18:47
Even the ensembles hold some hope for a something wintry in a small window. Let’s be honest, even if snow falls during the key three days and is wipe away quickly we would take that. 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Tractor Boy
21 December 2022 11:25:20

You can't call looking at the models (as a whole) and making a call based on them a "lucky guess."

That is not a guess, that's a forecast, which is what all the pros do as well.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



...but this is not a forecast thread. 
Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
+1

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