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The Beast from the East
22 December 2022 23:27:09

Interesting in a... disappointingly transient way? 

1 or 2 day wonders hold little interest. And the timing is 'meh' (I'm still smarting from crossing off another Xmas that will have sh*te weather, and I don't have that many left) 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



yes I really though we had a shot this year, but life is generally a long train of disappointments interspersed with some positives. At least you have a wife and loving  family. That’s all that really matters 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Brian Gaze
23 December 2022 06:44:19

Interesting in a... disappointingly transient way? 

1 or 2 day wonders hold little interest. And the timing is 'meh' (I'm still smarting from crossing off another Xmas that will have sh*te weather, and I don't have that many left) 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Yes my post was slightly tongue in cheek. The chart will update, but when I posted it showed a very flat pattern.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
overland
23 December 2022 07:52:31
To show how poor the outlook is every hourly interval on the BBC weather auto forecast has one or two raindrops for the next 2 weeks. The only exceptions are a few later today, tomorrow and almost all of boxing day. I appreciate, that in reality, it probably won't be quite as bad as this but it is disappointing, especially after the beautiful, cold frosty weather of earlier in the month.
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
23 December 2022 07:58:09
Flooding looking very likely now over the next 2weeks. Very mild👎

UserPostedImage


 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
23 December 2022 08:01:15

Flooding looking very likely now over the next 2weeks. Very mild👎

UserPostedImage


 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



GEFS has really started to ramp up the signal for mild conditions in early January. I wonder whether we'll see the UK Met text forecast starting to back away from the more wintry scenarios? I was completely wrong about this a couple of days ago, but since then most of the medium range numerical output has trended even more towards a mildish outlook, particularly in the south..
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
23 December 2022 08:04:40

GEFS has really started to ramp up the signal for mild conditions in early January. I wonder whether we'll see the UK Met text forecast starting to back away from the more wintry scenarios? I was completely wrong about this a couple of days ago, but since then most of the medium range numerical output has trended even more towards a mildish outlook, particularly in the south..

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Yes the Met office forecast looking a bit odd now. I would expect it to change to a much milder outlook soon.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
roadrunnerajn
23 December 2022 08:19:04
It does make you think that this storm in America has somehow jump started the Atlantic. January is usually when the polar vortex starts to fire and with the near collapse of the GH due in some part to this storm pushing further NE then was forecast a week ago, add on to that the injection of cold air into a warm Atlantic.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 December 2022 08:20:34
Nothing much to add to yesterday from WX: profile across Europe is cold N of a line lying W-E from the Scottish Highlands to the Baltic to N Ukraine to the Caspian, and the western end of this represents below average temps in those regions though not further E. The area of cold bulks up a bit in week 2 but stays more or lesss where it is. S Spain looks toasty. Rain for Atlantic coastal countries incl Britain both weeks, with an extension in week 2 across W Europe as far as the Urals matching the boundary of the cold air above. If anything Britain is a bit milder and wetter in week 2.

GFS Op - also similar to yesterday a generally persistent trough from mid-Atlantic to Norway with a W-ly regime at most times for Britain, but with some additional secondary depressions tracking across England,  and the HP which appeared at the end of FI in yesterday's chart has been written out. Principal LPs reinforcing the trough 970mb Faeroes Mon 26th and Fri 30th, 965mb Rockall Mon 2nd, 970mb W Isles Fri 6th, secondaries 985mb Yorks Thu 29th, 980mb Bristol Channel Fri 30th, 985mb E Anglia Sun 8th plus another forming to the SW that day [that's enough depressions ... Ed]

ECM has the LPs to the north, though on slightly different dates - 980mb Rockall Sun 25th, 960mb N Scotland Fri 30th - but keeps pressure high over France, suppressing any secondaries but pepping up W-ly gales across Britain.

GEFS has a sharp dip in temp Tue 27th but mean is soon back to norm and from Sun 1st rather mild though with the the usual spread in ens members (op & control amongst the coldest later on). Not much let-up from the rain esp in S & W (though these areas are briefly dry at first) and the only serious prospects for snow are in the Highlands in week 1

Jet stream forecast shows the jet somewhat more coherent than yesterday - not especially strong but consistently along the line of the English Channel
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
moomin75
23 December 2022 08:20:50

Flooding looking very likely now over the next 2weeks. Very mild👎    

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yep, sorry but i couldn't keep away.A very long spell of wet and windy now looked likely.We all know when Zonality sets up in winter, it can be very hard to shift.​​​​​​​I can't see a change any time soon. I would say several weeks at least of mild, wet, Zonal weather.​​​​​​​Winter is not over, but looks to me that the default pattern for this winter has now set in.​​​​​​​Wishing everyone on here a very Merry Christmas. The weather will do what it does, but I hope everyone enjoys the festive season.    
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
23 December 2022 08:23:55
Two weeks is a long time in model output but in that period, with the exception of a couple of transient colder blips (later today up here and Boxing Day) there’s not much sign of either wintry or settled conditions. As ever these things can change but they could change to milder as easily as colder. Even the 15 day ECM ensemble data are not showing any real hints of cold weather.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
UncleAlbert
23 December 2022 08:48:41

yes I really though we had a shot this year, but life is generally a long train of disappointments interspersed with some positives. At least you have a wife and loving  family. That’s all that really matters 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



I take your point as to how we have to balance out emotions on occasions. However your comment does demonstrate how deep runs our passion for the wonders that nature can throw at us and this is quite understandable as these experiences connect us with the natural universe in a special way.
Actually, within this 'boring' spell,   (and I share your pining!) I had an amazing experience on Wednesday. I was driving up the M5 near Clevedon when a diffuse cloud became apparent in front of us, this being formed by a drizzly type shower.  Suddenly this amazing rainbow appeared to the left.  The image must have become closer as the thickness of the bow became so large that as we rounded a bend it was descending directly in from of us and covering a large part of the motorway ahead.  It was so so bright and the colours were astonishing. This far surpassed any rainbow that I have seen in my 73 years.  I think it just proves that we have to live every minute whatever the weather because life can surprise us in all sorts of ways at any time.

​​​​​Hope mods will forgive me for my off topic ramble but I thought that this was worth sharing in view of the 'dark day mood' posts that invariably occur when this type of set up kicks in at prime time!

Anyway I could not  resist in a little fantasy at what might happen next on this t+384 frame this morning!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=384&run=0&lid=OP&h=1&mv=0&tr=24 

 
+2
Justin W
23 December 2022 09:25:21
The MetO seasonal outlook forecast colder earlier in the winter and then mild for the rest. Of course this could not turn out to be the case but the current output is surely not unexpected?
Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
shepherd
23 December 2022 09:29:54
Indeed, it's cold rain everyday for the next two weeks at least for us hear in WCS.
Brian Gaze
23 December 2022 09:35:16

The MetO seasonal outlook forecast colder earlier in the winter and then mild for the rest. Of course this could not turn out to be the case but the current output is surely not unexpected?

Originally Posted by: Justin W 



It doesn't really fit in with their current 30 day outlook.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
The Beast from the East
23 December 2022 09:54:36
ECM 10 day mean looks like a frigging bartlett. God help us.
But before that a nasty runner for southern areas on thursday/friday
lets hope it doesnt materialise
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
23 December 2022 09:56:08

The MetO seasonal outlook forecast colder earlier in the winter and then mild for the rest. Of course this could not turn out to be the case but the current output is surely not unexpected?

Originally Posted by: Justin W 


La Nina winters are often front loaded 
This one is playing out as expected. This could well be it now for snow, though the Met 30 dayer was picking up something, but perhaps it will be gone when the update comes out later
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
David M Porter
23 December 2022 10:01:10

From what I can see of the output this morning, the general theme seems to be generally unsettled in the next couple of weeks with generally milder temperatures the further south one is and a little cooler/colder further north. I can't see any sign of a Bartlett-type set-up in any of the output, unless others are seeing something I can't.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
23 December 2022 11:05:30

La Nina winters are often front loaded 
This one is playing out as expected. This could well be it now for snow, though the Met 30 dayer was picking up something, but perhaps it will be gone when the update comes out later
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Indeed. I'm perplexed by their recent update. They could of course be picking up on something later in January that the mainstream models are not showing yet but right now it feels like something has to give. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
MRazzell
23 December 2022 11:16:10

La Nina winters are often front loaded 
This one is playing out as expected. This could well be it now for snow, though the Met 30 dayer was picking up something, but perhaps it will be gone when the update comes out later
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



2017/18 was apparently a La Nina year too. Average temps and stormy, then your namesake appeared!
Matt.
Jiries
23 December 2022 11:26:57

2017/18 was apparently a La Nina year too. Average temps and stormy, then your namesake appeared!

Originally Posted by: MRazzell 



I never believe in anything like stupid nina, nino, SWW, long range forecasts. etc never get any results from that. All the same result at the end of the day.  Is all down to where the HP and LP tracks that determind the weather here.  Most offending one is HP cells that prevent any cold air coming in or hot air coming up as well.
idj20
23 December 2022 12:17:23
One of my "preferred method" of medium range model watching at this time of the year is looking at the wind and temperature profile at the stratsopheric level (10 hpa and 30 hpa) and there are signs of a wobble by the first week of January. Of course it is all very subject to the usual caveats of medium range forecasting but IF it does go that way then that may be our way out of this maritime-type rut as it all propagate downwards - but even that isn't guaranteed.
Closer to home, I don't really like the looks of the surface wind profile over the South East for next Wednesday on the 06z GFS run, but other models aren't showing the same thing or much toned down so still plenty of changes - or knowing our luck - upgrades. It is all part of a running theme for generally unsettled conditions as we remain under a long fetched south west airflow later next week anyway.


PS: If this post is laden with spelling mistakes, TWO's own spull chucker seems to be absent and I'm too lazy to keep checking it up on Google.
Folkestone Harbour. 
Gandalf The White
23 December 2022 12:33:22

2017/18 was apparently a La Nina year too. Average temps and stormy, then your namesake appeared!

Originally Posted by: MRazzell 



The La Niña effect seems to be a reasonable indicator, although obviously not remotely a guarantee of a particular weather pattern.  The Beast, of course, was triggered by a SSW event - and was quite well signalled a week or so ahead, IIRC.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
23 December 2022 12:34:37

One of my "preferred method" of medium range model watching at this time of the year is looking at the wind and temperature profile at the stratsopheric level (10 hpa and 30 hpa) and there are signs of a wobble by the first week of January. Of course it is all very subject to the usual caveats of medium range forecasting but IF it does go that way then that may be our way out of this maritime-type rut as it all propagate downwards - but even that isn't guaranteed.
Closer to home, I don't really like the looks of the surface wind profile over the South East for next Wednesday on the 06z GFS run, but other models aren't showing the same thing or much toned down so still plenty of changes - or knowing our luck - upgrades. It is all part of a running theme for generally unsettled conditions as we remain under a long fetched south west airflow later next week anyway.


PS: If this post is laden with spelling mistakes, TWO's own spull chucker seems to be absent and I'm too lazy to keep checking it up on Google.

Originally Posted by: idj20 


No Ian I've got a spell checker back again for a week or more I think, though it doesn't pick up grammatical inconsistencies. It worked for this post and picks up spull and wants to correct  it.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Arbroath 1320
23 December 2022 12:41:14
Amidst the very mobile westerly dominated output in the models, GFS does seem to be progressively upgrading the short spell of colder zonality in the lead up to New Year.

Some of the 6z ENS seem to be toying with the idea of an HP cell around Iceland in that time frame. 

Maybe nothing of note and still ages away, but it will be interesting to see if GFS and the other models build on this over the next few days. 
 
GGTTH
Brian Gaze
23 December 2022 12:47:53
We're now reaching the point in the winter where the "Bartlett High" starts to be discussed. Here is a quote from the late Paul Bartlett:

The high over the Alps or Biscay, can easily be replaced by another one moving southeast from Labrador in the confluence behind weakening upper troughs as they move east towards UK. It then arrives at the Azores,  then Biscay, then southern Europe (in one form of another).

https://groups.google.com/g/uk.sci.weather/c/OWaVXlmYlis/m/cskUin3H5kAJ  

My "idiot's guide" to the matter is to look at the trend in pressure since 1950. It is clearly upwards to the south of the UK and although cause and effect are not proven, in my view it is reasonable to assume the two are linked.  


UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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