theweatheroutlook

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Justin W
23 December 2022 12:51:15

It doesn't really fit in with their current 30 day outlook.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



My guess is that January will be mild and zonal
Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
moomin75
23 December 2022 12:55:55

My guess is that January will be mild and zonal

Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Just a hunch, but my guess is the rest of winter will be mostly mild and zonal, as it is virtually every year.

 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gandalf The White
23 December 2022 13:37:01

We're now reaching the point in the winter where the "Bartlett High" starts to be discussed. Here is a quote from the late Paul Bartlett:

The high over the Alps or Biscay, can easily be replaced by another one moving southeast from Labrador in the confluence behind weakening upper troughs as they move east towards UK. It then arrives at the Azores,  then Biscay, then southern Europe (in one form of another).

https://groups.google.com/g/uk.sci.weather/c/OWaVXlmYlis/m/cskUin3H5kAJ  

My "idiot's guide" to the matter is to look at the trend in pressure since 1950. It is clearly upwards to the south of the UK and although cause and effect are not proven, in my view it is reasonable to assume the two are linked.  


UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



That trend is in line with climate change predictions of a poleward movement of climate zones.

It’s noteworthy that the trend equates to about a 3mb rise in pressure over the south of England and a 3mb fall in pressure over northern Scotland, ie an increased pressure gradient.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
23 December 2022 13:39:40

Just a hunch, but my guess is the rest of winter will be mostly mild and zonal, as it is virtually every year.

 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Provided Ukraine gets mild weather and Moscow sits in a deep freeze I really don’t mind what we get here.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


moomin75
23 December 2022 13:40:14

Provided Ukraine gets mild weather and Moscow sits in a deep freeze I really don’t mind what we get here.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

This I do agree with!! ​​​​​​​Merry Christmas GTW.  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
UncleAlbert
23 December 2022 14:23:44

That trend is in line with climate change predictions of a poleward movement of climate zones.

It’s noteworthy that the trend equates to about a 3mb rise in pressure over the south of England and a 3mb fall in pressure over northern Scotland, ie an increased pressure gradient.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



It goes to show as we have suspected, the synoptics are not what they used to be.  So it's the triple whammy of general global warming, extra warming at the poles, and mild inducing synoptics. Time to take the grandchildren to Lapland I think.
Saint Snow
23 December 2022 17:03:56
If we presumably wait long enough, the higher pressure belt will, through its continuing journey northwards, end up to the north of the UK.

🤞

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
White Meadows
23 December 2022 19:57:17
'Twas the nightmare Before Christmas, and all the signs of Uncle Barty were falling into place... slowly, but surely, another UK winter saw an early demise

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=228&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref 
 
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 December 2022 20:09:24
But is the Beast in the East winding itself up?
http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
23 December 2022 20:36:07

'Twas the nightmare Before Christmas, and all the signs of Uncle Barty were falling into place... slowly, but surely, another UK winter saw an early demise

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=228&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Surely, ‘‘twas the night before Christmas Eve and all through the forum there was plenty of moaning and not much decorum”?

😛

Oh yeah on the model front, mobile and unsettled.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 December 2022 21:05:56

'Twas the nightmare Before Christmas, and all the signs of Uncle Barty were falling into place... slowly, but surely, another UK winter saw an early demise

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=228&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Skimming through a variety of charts on wetterzentrale, it looks more like we'll get the Euroslug rather than Uncle Barty - but same difference in the end.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
ballamar
23 December 2022 21:19:48
I thought the GFS op has some promise at 11/12 days which is probably the earliest we will see any break in the zonal pattern. See what the next run brings but perhaps there will be more optimism in the next
few runs
idj20
23 December 2022 22:55:30
You know what? I would bank the GFS 18z. Yes, still a period of relatively unsettled and windy conditions with sadly some gales next week but then a sustained spell of benign usable weather to ease us gently into the New Year. I'd take that, I'm not too greedy. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
Downpour
23 December 2022 23:24:02

'Twas the nightmare Before Christmas, and all the signs of Uncle Barty were falling into place... slowly, but surely, another UK winter saw an early demise

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=228&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



😂

It reminds me of Die Hard.

Twas the night before Christmas and all through the house not a creature was stirring…

Except for Uncle Barty. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
idj20
23 December 2022 23:25:39
Also I've noticed wide differences in the models for Christmas Day's rainfall for my location, ranging from GFS 18z with over 30 mm, around 10 mm by UK Global and as little as 5 mm by ICON and ECM. I guess the middle option (UKG) is probably the most likely outcome.
Folkestone Harbour. 
dagspot
23 December 2022 23:36:10
can we avoid the term ‘Uncle Barty’ even until January. 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Downpour
23 December 2022 23:59:32

can we avoid the term ‘Uncle Barty’ even until January. 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



Known simply as The Bart Man to those close to him
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Arbroath 1320
24 December 2022 00:41:37

Skimming through a variety of charts on wetterzentrale, it looks more like we'll get the Euroslug rather than Uncle Barty - but same difference in the end.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Actually I'd take an Uncle Barty every day. Euroslugs are impenetrable. 

Could write off months of Winter, but happily I don't think this one will. 
GGTTH
tallyho_83
24 December 2022 01:09:21

You know what? I would bank the GFS 18z. Yes, still a period of relatively unsettled and windy conditions with sadly some gales next week but then a sustained spell of benign usable weather to ease us gently into the New Year. I'd take that, I'm not too greedy. 

Originally Posted by: idj20 



Really? the most uninspiring set of runs and a deja vu of last winter 21/22 - at least we can keep heating costs down!

Ironic how the USA are having a massive winter storm with record breaking low temps whilst we are experiencing exceptionally mild weather when the previous week it was vice versa more or less!

Anyway, something to cling on to and this has been persistent for the past few days toward the end of the run are the GFS models showing signs of a warming over Siberia at 10hpa and pushing into the Arctic:

UserPostedImage 

This could be what the Met Office are picking up on hence them constantly saying about temperatures below normal or turning colder by mid January? Maybe this is in response to a SSW? who knows!? The signs are there and due to the rapid snow cover in Russia and over Scandinavia this year has actually strengthened the Siberian High so and SSW is expected. 🤔
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Zubzero
24 December 2022 01:10:14
We've had a few days of unsettled weather so far. Every time the Atlantic takes over the predictable winters over,zonal till the next ice age, uncle barty, bla bla bla posts appear. Time will tell, but the end off the 18z gfs shows how the Atlantic onslaught could come to an end. 
BJBlake
24 December 2022 01:14:35

It goes to show as we have suspected, the synoptics are not what they used to be.  So it's the triple whammy of general global warming, extra warming at the poles, and mild inducing synoptics. Time to take the grandchildren to Lapland I think.

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 

Yes this is the default - and cold spells with sustained cold will be even rarer than they once were for the UK, but the recent episode proves that hope burns eternal, and the right Synoptics will still bring cold to the UK, just with less and less frequency. 
I am interested to know, that if painting roofs white would help increase the albido effect to counteract GW, what percentage of the globe Deserts could be so covered by white reflective materials to counteract the increased greenhouse effect of CO2 and Methane? Perhaps oil producing countries could fund this. The calculation would be interesting, because I would predict it would be a surprisingly small surface area. It concerns me that there is not more coordination of thinking to this practical and achievable solution to the problem.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
backtobasics
24 December 2022 07:35:53

Really? the most uninspiring set of runs and a deja vu of last winter 21/22 - at least we can keep heating costs down!

Ironic how the USA are having a massive winter storm with record breaking low temps whilst we are experiencing exceptionally mild weather when the previous week it was vice versa more or less!

Anyway, something to cling on to and this has been persistent for the past few days toward the end of the run are the GFS models showing signs of a warming over Siberia at 10hpa and pushing into the Arctic:

UserPostedImage 

This could be what the Met Office are picking up on hence them constantly saying about temperatures below normal or turning colder by mid January? Maybe this is in response to a SSW? who knows!? The signs are there and due to the rapid snow cover in Russia and over Scandinavia this year has actually strengthened the Siberian High so and SSW is expected. 🤔

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



good to see i can now tick off SSW on my TWO winter bingo card. 

Happy Christmas  you daft lot.

 
MRayner
24 December 2022 07:39:07
Looks like we might see the first named storm of the winter next week. 
Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
BJBlake
24 December 2022 07:51:29
As if by magic - a Scandi high has appeared on the GFS Op: Yesterday only pert 4 showed this scenario, but it was a plausible one: With jet strength and its 2022 propensity to amplify, it is not a surprise to see the FI southerly push reach up to svalbard, and deliver predictably out of the svalbard magicians hat, all I want for Christmas (if late) - a Scandi’ high, this time with more cold air about to our east...
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
doctormog
24 December 2022 08:00:10

As if by magic - a Scandi high has appeared on the GFS Op: Yesterday only pert 4 showed this scenario, but it was a plausible one: With jet strength and its 2022 propensity to amplify, it is not a surprise to see the FI southerly push reach up to svalbard, and deliver predictably out of the svalbard magicians hat, all I want for Christmas (if late) - a Scandi’ high, this time with more cold air about to our east...

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



Given the timescale it is one of several options 😇 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSSPAGEU00_384_1.png  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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