A bit of a shift in WX Euro temps this morning, with colder weather (though still above norm) bulking up across Europe from the NE, reaching Poland in week 2 and backed by some very cold stuff in Siberia. At the same time a push from the SW means the N Atlantic becomes milder and the cold belt around Iceland disappears. Rain as ever on Atlantic coasts, quite extensive in week 1, restricted to Britain 😞 and Portugal in week 2.
GFS OP - a W-ly zonal flow to start with augmented by deeper LPs passing by - 970mb W Isles Thu 29th, 945mb S of Iceland Sat 31st - with usual fronts affecting UK. Pressure rises over S France 1030mb Thu 5th, and extends to N Norway where it settles 1045mb Sun 8th, and in the process winds over the UK go round to S-ly then SE-ly with LP sitting off SW Ireland.
ECM - similar but LP Sat 31st quite shallow in comparison, and HP over France begins to appear a day or so earlier
GEFS - in the S, a couple of dips as mean temp climbs from a low point on Tue 27th to a prolonged period 4-5C above norm for the first 10 days of January. Rain heaviest around Sun 1st but never far away. Similar in the N but the above norm period is slower to get established (say, from Tue 3rd) and there is less agreement between ens members; very large amounts of rain in the NW.
Note: I should be able to fit in this review tomorrow but it may be temporarily absent on Boxing Day
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl