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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 December 2022 08:09:58
A bit of a shift in WX Euro temps this morning, with colder weather (though still above norm) bulking up across Europe from the NE, reaching Poland in week 2 and backed by some very cold stuff in Siberia. At the same time a push from the SW means the N Atlantic becomes milder and the cold belt around Iceland disappears. Rain as ever on Atlantic coasts, quite extensive in week 1, restricted to Britain 😞 and Portugal in week 2. 

GFS OP - a W-ly zonal flow to start with augmented by deeper LPs passing by - 970mb W Isles Thu 29th, 945mb S of Iceland Sat 31st - with usual fronts affecting UK. Pressure rises over S France 1030mb Thu 5th, and extends to N Norway where it settles 1045mb Sun 8th, and in the process winds over the UK go round to S-ly then SE-ly with LP sitting off SW Ireland.

ECM - similar but LP Sat 31st quite shallow in comparison, and HP over France begins to appear a day or so earlier

GEFS - in the S, a couple of dips as mean temp climbs from a low point on Tue 27th to a prolonged period 4-5C above norm for the first 10 days of January. Rain heaviest around Sun 1st but never far away. Similar in the N but the above norm period is slower to get established (say, from Tue 3rd) and there is less agreement between ens members; very large amounts of rain in the NW.

Note: I should be able to fit in this review tomorrow but it may be temporarily absent on Boxing Day
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Rob K
24 December 2022 08:12:12

As if by magic - a Scandi high has appeared on the GFS Op: Yesterday only pert 4 showed this scenario, but it was a plausible one: With jet strength and its 2022 propensity to amplify, it is not a surprise to see the FI southerly push reach up to svalbard, and deliver predictably out of the svalbard magicians hat, all I want for Christmas (if late) - a Scandi’ high, this time with more cold air about to our east...

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



I did post a day or two ago suggesting that a Scandinavian high would fit in with the Met Office extended outlook for mid Jan. Fair play to them if they did sniff that one out (and it happens of course!)

However a look at the pressure ensemble for a random spot in Scandinavia shows that the op run was right at the top of the pack in terms of SLP, and the scatter is ridiculously enormous. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=0&lat=62.7125506073&lon=17.1698113208&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
BJBlake
24 December 2022 08:12:33

Given the timescale it is one of several options 😇 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSSPAGEU00_384_1.png  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yes - given its deep into FI - the scatter is proper spaghetti - but with increasing odds (from a very low platform) of another pattern evolution, so I’ll decorate my spaghetti with a frosting of Parmesan! 😂 
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Jiries
24 December 2022 09:50:20
I wonder what the effect for UK as Toronto going to see very mild and wet at 9C like we get in here.   It would be very impossible for both UK and Toronto to be very mild same time.  Soon the models will reveal if we will get colder on our side due to very mild weather on other side of the pond.   Lovely low sun on my face while typing this and warming up indoors.
Zubzero
24 December 2022 10:34:07
ballamar
24 December 2022 10:45:39
GFS looks bit more interesting hopefully the can retrogress but at 270 air would begin to stagnate and cool quickly
tallyho_83
24 December 2022 12:29:48

I did post a day or two ago suggesting that a Scandinavian high would fit in with the Met Office extended outlook for mid Jan. Fair play to them if they did sniff that one out (and it happens of course!)

However a look at the pressure ensemble for a random spot in Scandinavia shows that the op run was right at the top of the pack in terms of SLP, and the scatter is ridiculously enormous. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=0&lat=62.7125506073&lon=17.1698113208&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Along way off but this has been consistent in the models for a an SSW at 10hpa to appear over Siberia and push into the N. Pole and has been the trend for a few days now and maybe the Met have picked up on this hence the colder weather towards Middle of January?? What do you think?
UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


dagspot
24 December 2022 13:58:07

These deep lows around the New year look nasty. Blizzards for northen hills to, chance of one maybe 2 named storms?

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


Hasn’t everything of late programmed further south in recent times? 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Phil24
24 December 2022 15:27:56

Along way off but this has been consistent in the models for a an SSW at 10hpa to appear over Siberia and push into the N. Pole and has been the trend for a few days now and maybe the Met have picked up on this hence the colder weather towards Middle of January?? What do you think?
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



I think I would take that any day, and Judah Cohen is actually thinking the same in his recent blog, in fact he’s been alluding to an SSW mid Han as a possibility for a while now. 
dagspot
24 December 2022 15:37:22
From Met Office blog
"Can we predict these events in advance?
Currently we can reliably predict individual SSWs about a week in advance, and we can detect them early on with satellite and other observations. This means we have some time to see how they develop and may impact our future weather."

Neilston 600ft ASL
Jacee
24 December 2022 16:09:37

Hasn’t everything of late programmed further south in recent times? 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



I understand that to only be the case for slider lows when they come up against a cold block over the UK, rather than our more typical zonal low.
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
tallyho_83
24 December 2022 17:39:09

From Met Office blog
"Can we predict these events in advance?
Currently we can reliably predict individual SSWs about a week in advance, and we can detect them early on with satellite and other observations. This means we have some time to see how they develop and may impact our future weather."

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



GFS 12Z model at 10hpa - Again shows the SSW toward the end of the run over Siberia and pushing into Arctic - the theme for a SSW looks set to continue:
Again still early days but the consistent theme is there and given the strength of the Siberian high this winter so far this isn't surprising!

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Jiries
24 December 2022 18:06:54

GFS 12Z model at 10hpa - Again shows the SSW toward the end of the run over Siberia and pushing into Arctic - the theme for a SSW looks set to continue:
Again still early days but the consistent theme is there and given the strength of the Siberian high this winter so far this isn't surprising!

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

If N America stay mild in January then that will help us on our side to get something snowy and cold in Jan and to be right in mid-winter than having cold early Spring.  Need a early one this year due to high heating costs and their nasty demand to increase the prices in April despite falling gas and fuel prices since last summer.
Joe Bloggs
24 December 2022 19:02:02
Merry Christmas to everyone on TWO. Both members and non-member lurkers alike. 👍

It’s a shame that the cold/mild battleground & central Britain snow risk never materialised for Christmas a la GFS, and well done to the ECMWF model, is the take home from this IMO.

Forget the weather - have a wonderful Christmas and enjoy the day tomorrow. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

dagspot
24 December 2022 20:47:06
patiently waiting for ‘not enough data’ bingo ! 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
24 December 2022 20:58:47
Merry Christmas fellow TWOers.  Here's to a snowy January. 🎅🎅🎅
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
westv
24 December 2022 21:15:50

Merry Christmas fellow TWOers.  Here's to a snowy January. 🎅🎅🎅

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Which year though?
At least it will be mild!
Zubzero
24 December 2022 22:15:18
Merry Christmas and New-year all. Here's to epic snow storms, flooding of Moomin proportions, and Jiries posts making sense. 🎅 🎆 🎇 
Lionel Hutz
24 December 2022 22:24:24

Which year though?

Originally Posted by: westv 


And where? He may mean Greenland🇬🇱. 

Happy Christmas to all. 
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Gandalf The White
24 December 2022 22:33:04

patiently waiting for ‘not enough data’ bingo ! 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



I thought it was more akin to Snakes & Ladders: you go up to a Scandi block and back down to a Euro slug.

Merry Christmas everyone.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


BJBlake
24 December 2022 23:23:07

I thought it was more akin to Snakes & Ladders: you go up to a Scandi block and back down to a Euro slug.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Merry Christmas to you too and all on TWO too.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
tallyho_83
25 December 2022 01:21:44

I thought it was more akin to Snakes & Ladders: you go up to a Scandi block and back down to a Euro slug.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Merry Christmas all - Here's to this SSW which make take place in January for a colder end to January 2023? - clutching at straws I know!

UserPostedImage
 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


UncleAlbert
25 December 2022 01:30:49
Wishing a Merry Christmas and a Happy New year to all posters on TWO.
Uncle Albert
During 1963..........zzzzz
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
25 December 2022 06:00:54
Wishing you all a Merry Christmas!  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Ally Pally Snowman
25 December 2022 06:58:06

Which year though?

Originally Posted by: westv 



Well every January of course!😄
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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