Its another run that keeps the cold to the 22nd just about.
Could be very snowy spell especially for the west coming up. Looking quite nowcasty things could pop up last minute like December. 
 

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Coinciding with January is also good, time to watch DP closely. I was on the wrong side in December a couple miles can make a big difference in this setup
Nice bit of fog to add into the mix as it settle as later on which used to be precursor to her cold weather in my mind

I’ll take run number 4 from the 06z GEFS

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A good few of the ENS pointing to various forms high latitude blocking in FI. Will be interesting to see if that trend continues in subsequent runs. 

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Lacking the deep cold by the time it sets itself up. Lovely pattern though, as there is with many that haven't quite got the cold to our shores, but it wouldn't take long afterwards. Personally prefer the control or 11, 16, 26 (I think that's the numbers) equally, to address the balance and stop the trolls being offended, there are other milder options on the table, but I wasnt looking for those.

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London snow row 17, 18, 25! 

A number of runs showing accumulations too.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London 

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Not posted since Christmas, due to lack interest (endless gales and flooding).

Finally it’s looking like something favourable for coldies with the turn of the month presenting a chance for a Scandy Beauty to show herself unexpectedly and not what the mainstream forecasters have considered so far. 

P26 from the 6Z set is rather spectacular.

Interesting how we are on the brink of a rather potent cold spell that really came out of nowhere.

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‘Showers turning wintry’ even in the south, and ‘notable windchill’ ..signs starting to creep into the forecast from Sunday. 
remarkable if this results in a widespread snow event at such short notice. Something dramatic in the output must have changed confidence in the last day or so, when you consider the December cold spell was being touted at least a week in advance. 

I like the Control for Liverpool (but the Op would do, I guess! 😎)




 

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Interesting.

Very interesting. 

If this results in another dumpage this will go down as a very memorable writer down here, after the 6-7inch week-long beastie before Christmas. 

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Shame those winds get over the top of the high ideally it would have built into Greenland. But that’s a way off and potential for some interesting weather prior to that scenario

Greenland aside it looks more and more like the Son of the Troll of Trondheim.

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For here from my 16th to 18C going for -2 and 3C with snowfall with Mon and Tue more chances of 64--76% which is gone higher than previous updates then a bit less on Wed.  I checked Epsom which is far south also going for snowfall over night but snow or rain risk at day time.  Seem more chance to see my birthday on 16th being white.  
Still again hat off to Moomin for predicting the mild zonal for few weeks and now we on 4th week and ending of this zonal period to something more winter alike pattern starting from Monday so that give some interest for model reports.

After Son of Troll of Trondheim some much needed high pressure looks the form horse atm. Where will the high pressure go? Looks like Greenland on the GFS 12z.

 

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This will be a massive blessing to see LP all over Europe and give much needed rain in the south and snow in the Alps,  They must be so relieved to this see this killer Euro HP is completely out of the way and safely over the Azores area.  If the LP move east a bit we would get hit with very cold NE winds as this chart is going around UK toward Spain but still UK trapped in the cold, snowy and unsettled zone, no way to see stupid bone dry set up like last month.

indeed. You have to hand it to Moomin - his call was spot on. Much mocked at the time, yet spookily accurate. Changes afoot now, though, right on cue.

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Spectacular end to the GFS 12z. Are we starting to see the Strat warming effects already?

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It has not quite come out of nowhere. Currently some of the models indicate the lesser spotted occurrence of a polar outbreak being 'thickened up' instead of being 'watered down'.  ICON and METO not having the longer version at the moment though.

GFS at the end looks quite good, hopefully the high won’t build a cell over Europe

Surely you not alone as likely all Europeans, Alps ski resorts businesses and the Spanish really want this out so badly to get much needed rain and snow.  The charts that Brian posted look like exiting to Azores then go north to Greenland as the way of HP pointing at GL direction?

12z GFS a bit of a drier run, as the Atlantic High ridges NNE'wards to cut off the NW flow. Great FI evolution, though 🤣 with the Atlantic high linking with an Arctic high, ending with this sort of set-up:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_360_mslp500.png 

 

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stop with the back slapping he wrote off January yesterday. Get a room

It’s  obvious given the comments Moomin made that they are being sarcastic. January (the entire month) was written off on a number of occasions. Normally Moomin is big enough to admit that he has called something wrong with his guesses, I suspect he will do it again.

Uncertainty was always the key point around mid-month in recent days and that can lead to setups like those currently modelled. It’s still a few days out so things could change and there is still a very large standard deviation from around the 20th (a couple of days beyond what was shown until recently).

Before then it looks chilly and for some wintry. Not as cold or probably even as long-lasting as December’s spell but possibly more unsettled.

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There are roughly 3 posters (most will know who they are) who seem to have an agenda. Finding the wet zonal pattern, which let's be honest is common with the climate here in the UK. The law of average will say they will be correct at some point in their predictions.

But a theme appears every single time, if cold is shown in the models output they they to find zonal, mild and wet weather, or the end to any predicted cold spell. If it is summer and high pressure and heat are possible, they try to find rain, cool wet weather (some will remember a certain poster writing off the whole of summer last year) record breaking temps were the outcome. But, the same posters will never back up their theories by providing links and images where their predictions are established from. Most people will know that if you do not back up your statements with at least some evidence, your theories may be ridiculed. 

The excuse of stating you do not know how to post images or links is weak in my opinion. If you are going to state it at least back it up, then a counter argument can be made. There is someone currently posting (relatively new) who is  a breath of fresh air on this discussion forum. Well presented output predictions, backed up with images and charts. Albeit, they may not turn out to be accurate, it is evidenced. Not whole months and season written off, without a shred of evidence. 

I visit the site probably over 5 times a day. I find it very tiresome to have what is called the model output discussion taken over by these 3 certain posters (who all seem to appear at the same time, a little strange). It becomes about the individuals rather than evidenced discussions and theories about what may or may not happen. I do not post output prediction because I am pretty poor at reading the models. 

But i do know enough to know in the UK do not ever write off seasons or months as it can often change quite quickly. What does appear to be certain it will feel more seasonal into next week, and anything may happen. But I feel my experience on here will be subdued by these certain posters with heir agenda. Sorry about the long post and rant, and being slightly off topic.

Have a great day everyone and enjoy the fun over the next week.