theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Downpour
20 January 2023 00:13:44

A slight drift west makes all the difference. The SE looking the coldest part for a change. Not good for those heating bills 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



For a change? SE has had the best of the winter weather thus far this season, I’d submit. (within England)


(Was cold winter / warm summer quadrant in geography books of yore) 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
ballamar
20 January 2023 07:57:02
High flattens today, along with some of the hope! Big changes from run to run even in the ENS. Not resolved yet
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 January 2023 08:29:16
WX temp charts much as yesterday; the coldest i.e. freezing weather for Europe around the Alps and linking to W Russia, moving in week 2 SE-wards to Balkans and inland Turkey. Still ordinarily cold in W Europe in week 1, but something just a little milder pushing up W coasts and across to the Baltic in week 2. Rain/pptn in week 1 in N Atlantic and around the Adriatic/Greece, fading in both areas in week 2; drier in between and much drier there in week 2.

GFS Op; the current area of cold air over Britain moves away to form a cold pool over Italy while HP moves up from the SW and settles W of Britain by Thu 26th. At this stage the cold pool is still quite close to the SE and could keep temps down there while the NW is mild. The HP then sinks S and zonal W-lies set in with LPs on Fri 3rd and Sun 5th Faeroes 955mb and 970mb respectively (this from WZ - TWO doesn't appear to be updating this morning and is still showing yesterday's Scandi HP for later on)

ECM; similar to GFS but zonal pattern showing up earlier, by Mon 30th

GEFS; becoming milder in the next few days, more slowly in the S; then back to norm or a little below from Thu 26th for the foreseeable. Rain showing up in various runs, mostly in the N from approx Wed 1st.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
20 January 2023 09:08:18
Signs of some 'proper cold' over Central Europe in GFS in a few days time which then pushes south over the Balkans later. Are we going to get more photos of a snowy Acropolis this winter? 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
ballamar
20 January 2023 10:10:24

Signs of some 'proper cold' over Central Europe in GFS in a few days time which then pushes south over the Balkans later. Are we going to get more photos of a snowy Acropolis this winter? 

Originally Posted by: GezM 


To be fair they are a true continental climate and get snow more often than us so no idea why people are surprised. One of life’s mysteries 
ballamar
20 January 2023 11:01:29
The way the models are trending, we could end up with storms like last Feb. Would be a shame as I was not expecting/hoping for that!
idj20
20 January 2023 11:24:22

The way the models are trending, we could end up with storms like last Feb. Would be a shame as I was not expecting/hoping for that!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Looking like the bulk of the polar vortex being shunted towards North America resulting in a strenthening North Atlantic jet stream = back to square one for us. Story of our lives when it comes to our mid-latitude climate.

Of course, that's us casting our lines waaaaaay out at this point.
Folkestone Harbour. 
Saint Snow
20 January 2023 11:40:16
Decent output in the reliable - steady as she goes with the meandering high theme.

Just wish we had half a foot of snow on the ground now, as it'd likely stay in place a while.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Taylor1740
20 January 2023 12:40:46
Looks like next week won't be mild at all for most, despite the BBC confidently saying numerous times that it will be mild by this weekend and showing 10c+ temperatures.

Longer term outlook is still anyone's guess and zonality is back on the table. However there isn't much sign of anything mild at the moment.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
moomin75
20 January 2023 15:01:49

Looks like next week won't be mild at all for most, despite the BBC confidently saying numerous times that it will be mild by this weekend and showing 10c+ temperatures. Longer term outlook is still anyone's guess and zonality is back on the table. However there isn't much sign of anything mild at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

As long as it stays dry (or mostly dry) I'm not bothered.Have given up looking for snow this winter, but a dry spell would be most welcome to alleviate the flood issues.  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+2
nsrobins
20 January 2023 16:47:09

As long as it stays dry (or mostly dry) I'm not bothered.Have given up looking for snow this winter, but a dry spell would be most welcome to alleviate the flood issues.  

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Having not seen a flake for over 3 years my expectations of snow are very low indeed. As exciting as the BFTE was it occured after the end of what I consider the 'classic' winter period and with the March sun had melted away by the Monday. The deep midwinter (late Dec to early Feb) freezing snowy episode is probably, for here in deep south, a thing of memory now.
On topic, the meandering high theme (never in the 'right ' place) continues and with the Northern jet arm fired up like it is I can't see it getting high enough to be of any use to the UK (if you like cold). If you like mostly dry weather, it's party time.
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Taylor1740
20 January 2023 18:04:36

As long as it stays dry (or mostly dry) I'm not bothered.Have given up looking for snow this winter, but a dry spell would be most welcome to alleviate the flood issues.  

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


yes unfortunately snow seems very hard to come by again this Winter round here. Even when we get a cold spell it just seems to be bone dry.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
DPower
20 January 2023 23:42:04
Anyone viewing the 18z pub run can see what is going on up top starting to have an imprint on the trop pattern below. Obviously this is a work in progress but we may be only a couple of days away from some  very juicy synoptic charts. Just for fun of course but its a pity the 18z op run did not run for another 72 to 96 hours. 
The strat gph profile that was looking so good a few days back with split vortices has settled back to more of a displacement event therefore my confidence of a big freeze end of Jan and going into Feb has been dented somewhat, but it is still only the 20th and the warming does not really get going for a few days yet. Plus the cfs runs while looking very plus AO, NAO just a couple of days back are now showing high latitude blocking and very cold Arctic weather during Feb. This has perked my confidence again especially considering that when social media and the met were contemplating a big freeze back in Jan and Feb 2019 after the SSW the cfs runs never came on board at all. I remember frequently watching them for the first signs in the model output and thought it odd as to why they were not showing the slightest sign of the imminent freeze that was supposed to be coming our way. 
As far as I am concerned we are still very much in the game as we see out the month and on into February.
BJBlake
21 January 2023 00:03:48

yes unfortunately snow seems very hard to come by again this Winter round here. Even when we get a cold spell it just seems to be bone dry.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

There has been a constant jet flow drift or sheer from the NW - so when we have had the Artic incursions - the ambient flow has always had some westerly element to the the path of showers. The NW, from Lancaster down to Llandudno - and especially the zone from Chester to Manchester, has done well. As for the east coast, most of the snow sowers have drifted off to the east off shore, just a few clipped the extreme east of Norfolk, some by then sleet - due to warm sea temperatures. There needs to be a proper NE flow for the east side to get any shower delivered snow from an Artic source. We had fleeting sleet showers today, as the temperatures had lifted a tad from previous days, just as a brief NE flow set in. The band of snow showers that dusted Newcastle yesterday, reached Swaffham - as a few tiny flakes that left a sparse flake mosaic on the patio table. That’s as much as we have had this year. Feb fill-dyke - be it black or be it white, has my hopes firmly pinned! Here’s hoping.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
fairweather
21 January 2023 00:09:03
Good news - or is it? Has anybody else reached that age where they are starting to get conflicted? I have only had a couple of decent snow falls in the last decade or so and few ice days. In that period I have turned 70, had two total knee replacements, balance not as good as it was, get watery eyes even more in the cold and feel cold more easily. So why the hell am I still looking at these charts for cold and snow?? I guess after 60  years of anticipation I can't break the mould and the magic is still there and I did enjoy the one week of snow before CHristmas, the first here for several years! 😄
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+3
Matty H
21 January 2023 00:57:36

Good news - or is it? Has anybody else reached that age where they are starting to get conflicted? I have only had a couple of decent snow falls in the last decade or so and few ice days. In that period I have turned 70, had two total knee replacements, balance not as good as it was, get watery eyes even more in the cold and feel cold more easily. So why the hell am I still looking at these charts for cold and snow?? I guess after 60  years of anticipation I can't break the mould and the magic is still there and I did enjoy the one week of snow before CHristmas, the first here for several years! 😄

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



I couldn’t give a toss anymore. I used to love snow but couldn’t care less if I never saw it again now. Age changes you. I’d be happy if every day of the year was 30c and sunny 

I only come here now to read people’s thoughts, weather or otherwise. I genuinely don’t have a real interest in the weather anymore other than wanting it to be hot and dry
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+2
Arbroath 1320
21 January 2023 01:20:26

I couldn’t give a toss anymore. I used to love snow but couldn’t care less if I never saw it again now. Age changes you. I’d be happy if every day of the year was 30c and sunny 

I only come here now to read people’s thoughts, weather or otherwise. I genuinely don’t have a real interest in the weather anymore other than wanting it to be hot and dry

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



I spend a good part of my life in Highland Perthshire. Snow is not unusual up here and I've had a good few experiences of it this Winter, even though it's not particularly been a cold one so far. 

Snow is magical if you are sitting watching it from the comfort of your home, but it's a real pain in the jaxy if you need to get about in it. 

I love cold frosty days when I can get out with the dogs and they come home clean and dry. 

In terms of the models, it looks like a dry and settled period ahead. There could be some decent frosts but never particularly cold. Suits me fine 👍

 
GGTTH
ballamar
21 January 2023 07:07:19
Seems to be enough uncertainty to keep some interest up, GFS seems the best if you are looking for wintry weather. Doesn’t look overly mild in the output 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 January 2023 07:52:10
WX temps show freezing weather to be more persistent over Europe, at least east of the French border, than charted yesterday. Elsewhere cool in week 1, milder for SW Britain down to Spain in week 2.  Yesterday's pptn pattern, showing areas in N Atlantic and in the Med and dry between, persists for week 1 but in week 2 more pushes in across Britain to France and Germany to link up with that in the Med.

GFS Op: the cold pool is now 995mb Italy while Britain is affected by developing HP from SW to become at its strongest 1040mb SW Ireland Fri 27th by then covering Britain (MetO forecasts a cloudy HP, not unexpected with its origin in mid-Atlantic) while the cold air drifts back N-wards from Italy to cover E & C Europe. The HP then meanders W-wards which with deep LP over Scandinavia bringing weak N-lies down the E coast through to Wed 1st. A trough then moves down from Iceland to lie N-S over Britain Fri 3rd as a rehearsal for a much deeper trough 960mb Faeroes Mon 6th with cold NW-lies for all Britain.

ECM similar to GFS at first but allows the HP to decline W/SW- wards earlier and activates the Atlantic with LP 975mb Rockall Tue 31st.

GEFS temps recover to norm, briefly in the S around Wed 25th but sooner in N, then mean drops to just below seasonal norm and stays there throughout but plenty of variation between ens members, both op and control runs especially variable. Dry; a little rain late on, say from Fri 3rd but a few days earlier and heavier in N/NW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Gandalf The White
21 January 2023 09:00:03

Good news - or is it? Has anybody else reached that age where they are starting to get conflicted? I have only had a couple of decent snow falls in the last decade or so and few ice days. In that period I have turned 70, had two total knee replacements, balance not as good as it was, get watery eyes even more in the cold and feel cold more easily. So why the hell am I still looking at these charts for cold and snow?? I guess after 60  years of anticipation I can't break the mould and the magic is still there and I did enjoy the one week of snow before CHristmas, the first here for several years! 😄

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Extraordinarily close to my thoughts. I’ve always looked on cold weather as a welcome break from dreary, grey mild weather; there’s just something uplifting about bright winter sunshine on snow-covered ground. But that’s definitely being slowly outweighed by the dislike of feeling cold - and higher heating costs.

The BFTE was decidedly unpleasant, particularly when it brought biting winds but precious little snow.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Ally Pally Snowman
21 January 2023 09:12:52
I still absolutely love snow . The week we had in December has truly magical and I loved every minute of it and it only reinforced my feelings about the white gold. But I do also love a heatwave and chasing them has been much more fruitful in recent years. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
21 January 2023 09:17:51
As for the weather atm it's a complete snoozefest but at least its dry. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hippydave
21 January 2023 09:39:08
In the GFS and ECM ops at least, the move towards pulling the HP westwards has continued IMO - quite noticeable how the UK limpet is now not far off a slightly displaced Azores HP. This has the result of increasing the possibility of colder uppers being pulled down at times if the HP ridges North as strongly as the GFS op shows, the ECM is less keen and develops LP more at the end of the run. The ECM's slightly flatter solution means less cold air is drawn over the country and it's more fleeting when it does, with ground temps down here responding accordingly. I imagine it would be less noticeable for more Northern parts.

IMBY the ECM solution means cold until and including next Tuesday, before average to a touch above average temps are favoured until around the end of January, with nights generally a few degrees above average. 

All in all nothing exciting from a cold POV IMBY but the more amplified GFS solution would bring the usual increasing risk of at least transient snow for more Northern parts (for amusement value the stalling/sliding front that comes in at T207 demonstrates this as it never gets right over to the East, leaving some parts on the colder side with snow for a reasonable amount of time). 

Looking at the strat the GFS is still keen on various bursts of warming, no idea if any of these meet the definition of a technical SSW or indeed if any of them will knock the PV around enough to shake things up. There's a distinct lack of HLB in the deep FI section of GFS's run so at the moment that model doesn't think the warming will assist with a colder pattern at least.
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
+2
idj20
21 January 2023 10:18:06
According to XC Weather, I'll be under N or NE winds for at least the next 7 days and yet not a single flake expected. Winters 
definitely has been watered down at my neck of the woods. Yes, I've recently had a good run of frosty nights but even that used to be a common thing in Autumn.
Folkestone Harbour. 
ballamar
21 January 2023 10:35:38
GFS run seems to be exploring the option of the low sinking over Scandi - be interesting see where this op run ends up
Users browsing this topic
Ads