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doctormog
25 January 2023 17:21:56

As pretty as it looks....

Salt, large, pinch, of (rearrange accordingly)

By no means out of the realms of possibility, I'll  take as much notice of this one as I did the big mild outlier from the 00hrs.

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 



Oh yes a bucket load of salt, there’s little doubt about that, but my point is about it appearing after the post about February looking zonal. The futility of long range guesswork rather than model output discussion, the point of this thread, was highlighted beautifully by the juxtaposition! 🤣
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Jiries
25 January 2023 17:26:37

It’s almost like the model output knows when people predict weeks of zonality!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_294_1.png  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Imagine the zonal weather is from the east all year around.  I would had definitely put a weather station back on running if we have this permanent winds from the east, cold snowy winter to warm to hot dry summers like in Japan climate.  Easterly in the past used to be 50% any time of the year especially from February to June that bring snow at first part then cool to warm sunny days in latter parts after cloud clearing off.  It now so rare to see this set-up.
ballamar
25 January 2023 18:00:11
The extremity of the op run is an outlier but there is a cluster that trends the same - could be a one off or possibly a trend
Gandalf The White
25 January 2023 18:02:11

Oh yes a bucket load of salt, there’s little doubt about that, but my point is about it appearing after the post about February looking zonal. The futility of long range guesswork rather than model output discussion, the point of this thread, was highlighted beautifully by the juxtaposition! 🤣

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



LOL

Of course, every outlier is the herald of a new trend; until the next run or two.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
25 January 2023 18:37:59

Because it is only a minor SSW rather than a major that is likely to happen in the coming days. However it's effects won't be seen for several weeks, and even then regardless as to whether it was a minor or major it wouldn't guarantee any affect to our weather. 

Met office discussion on the subject yesterday..

 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Do they say how often minor events happen? This table suggests that major SSWs happen about 6 to 9 times per decade.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming 

 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Taylor1740
25 January 2023 18:57:46

It’s almost like the model output knows when people predict weeks of zonality!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_294_1.png  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


yes it does seem like that sometimes! However I am not going to change my expectations just yet based on one GFS OP run 
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Saint Snow
25 January 2023 19:00:48

Oh yes a bucket load of salt, there’s little doubt about that, but my point is about it appearing after the post about February looking zonal. The futility of long range guesswork rather than model output discussion, the point of this thread, was highlighted beautifully by the juxtaposition! 🤣

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



👍😂

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
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Taylor1740
25 January 2023 19:06:31
Looks like the opp run unfortunately has little support from the ensembles so I wouldn't be expecting a scandi high just yet.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
doctormog
25 January 2023 19:10:26
The chances of a Scandi High are very low indeed as things stand.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
tallyho_83
25 January 2023 19:14:08

Looks like the opp run unfortunately has little support from the ensembles so I wouldn't be expecting a scandi high just yet.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



More like no support!
Just got back from work and looked ay 12z op run and thought wow. Now this is a beauty and maybe in response the stratospheric warming occurring over Siberia and into N Pole, but of course it's too good to be true and a major cold  outlier. But maybe later in February because any tropospheric response to the warming wouldn't take place until middle of February as Aiden McGiven of the Met office said. That's if we get one of course!).
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Snow Hoper
25 January 2023 19:28:03

Oh yes a bucket load of salt, there’s little doubt about that, but my point is about it appearing after the post about February looking zonal. The futility of long range guesswork rather than model output discussion, the point of this thread, was highlighted beautifully by the juxtaposition! 🤣

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Oh yeah I knew your point, it's the same point made by countless people to same select few that ends up making no difference to the overall tone of the thread. I place them on ignore because they dont offer a balanced view, IMO they harm the sites ability to attract the type of posters needed for decent MO discussion, often putting off those already here that do as well. But that's for a different thread really.

tonights GFS 12z run offers hope and needs repeating if it's to stand a chance. Think its 91 that had the purples over Greenland when we got our snow from the East, although having looked at the temp profile on Wetter l think they have made it look a lot colder prior to that spell than it actually was. 
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
+2
Gandalf The White
25 January 2023 19:41:51

Do they say how often minor events happen? This table suggests that major SSWs happen about 6 to 9 times per decade.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



The suggestion was that it happens most winters but of varying intensities and the interaction with the troposphere varies considerably, sometimes no effect, sometimes we get milder weather.

It was also stressed that it’s just one component and that this winter the La Niña impact is a forcing in the opposite direction (to cold and blocked), so even if there is a SSW, there’s no guarantee on how it will play out in terms of Synoptics.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ballamar
25 January 2023 20:39:56
Just to be clear not sure anyone expects that run to come off! But it does show how small changes can disrupt the flow. 
Brian Gaze
25 January 2023 21:24:29

The suggestion was that it happens most winters but of varying intensities and the interaction with the troposphere varies considerably, sometimes no effect, sometimes we get milder weather.

It was also stressed that it’s just one component and that this winter the La Niña impact is a forcing in the opposite direction (to cold and blocked), so even if there is a SSW, there’s no guarantee on how it will play out in terms of Synoptics.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



👍 That was my guess. I really don't see why some people seem to get so excited about a slight displacement of the SPV if it happens most winters. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
picturesareme
25 January 2023 21:36:29

Do they say how often minor events happen? This table suggests that major SSWs happen about 6 to 9 times per decade.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



No they didn't but two examples were given from recent year's to show how complete reversals can affect us. One was the beast from the east and the other was a record breaking warm February
Jacee
25 January 2023 21:39:46
I am interested in what Gandalf said about SSW's not necessarily always bringing a heightened chance of colder than average weather for the UK in winter. I have read comments online recently that have speculated the opposite - that a recent (or ongoing?) warming has actually led to an increased likelihood of a stronger PV into February that could lead to more unsettled and potentially stormy weather for the UK should the lows track south of Iceland 🤔
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
doctormog
25 January 2023 21:49:25
Not that there is major SSW predicted but, from what I can see, they tend to disrupt global weather patterns. Whether that means a cold spell here or the opposite or indeed neither seems to be much more complicated and dependent on other factors, like most things in our weather and climate. It’s part of what makes it so fascinating!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
idj20
25 January 2023 22:50:32
Yeah, I'm not surprised about the GFS 12z run being a "one off", but speaking as someone who is looking for the quickest/shortest possible route to proper Spring-like conditions early in the year I wouldn't push the 18z out of bed.
Folkestone Harbour. 
+1
ballamar
25 January 2023 23:34:25

Yeah, I'm not surprised about the GFS 12z run being a "one off", but speaking as someone who is looking for the quickest/shortest possible route to proper Spring-like conditions early in the year I wouldn't push the 18z out of bed.

Originally Posted by: idj20 



Spring like would be nice but looks to be a fairly cold run - granted not 850’s but cold at surface
ballamar
26 January 2023 07:03:31
Blocking for the first week of Feb seems to be getting traction now with hints by the second week it could start to get colder. See how it plays out. Atlantic may have to wait
Jiries
26 January 2023 07:29:27

Blocking for the first week of Feb seems to be getting traction now with hints by the second week it could start to get colder. See how it plays out. Atlantic may have to wait

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



For now this HP is already out stayed it welcome and need to sod off to allow sun back and other weather variety like snow events that you looking for can only happen if cloudy HP remove from sitting doing nothing by eating up valuable winter days.  I am not alone as many ski industries are growing extremely hatred with HP destroying their winter snow needs.
Gandalf The White
26 January 2023 08:18:15

👍 That was my guess. I really don't see why some people seem to get so excited about a slight displacement of the SPV if it happens most winters. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Straw clutching?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 January 2023 08:27:52
Why should we, in vain endeavour, Guess and guess and guess again? [The Gondoliers - G & S] - might well be the motto of GFS Op at the moment, from raging zonality at 0z yesterday to massive Scandi High by 12z. As for this morning....

WX temps (based on GFS) in week 1 cold, in central areas freezing weather all the way down across Europe to N Spain more extensive than yesterday), withdrawing slightly in week 2 with milder air moving up Atlantic coasts as far as S Britain (yesterday the mild had spread well E-wards across Europe but today still freezing in C Europe). Pptn on N Atlantic incl NW Scotland and in Med both weeks, notably dry across continental W Europe week 2.

GFS Op - HP centred to SW of Britain to Thu 2nd (the edge of a N-ly plunge for the E coast Wed 1st), then moving first to France (W-lies for Britain at this stage) and eventually trekking NE to Finland/E Russia 1055mb by Sat 11th. Winds in Britain going round from SW-ly (around Mon 6th) to SE-ly (Sat 11th) with cold air approaching.

ECM similar to GFS though the HP appears to be sticking over S Britain 1035mb Sun 5th rather than moving on to France and points NE.

GEFS mean temp close to norm (Scotland up and down at first, more consistent in S) though op & control much milder than most runs in first week of Feb; pptn in many runs (but not op) also from Sat 4th (a couple of days earlier in Scotland). Snow row figures in the Highlands still significant but lower than yesterday.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
BJBlake
26 January 2023 08:33:53
What is more tangible right now is a persistent signal (albeit in FI) from the GFS for a southerly push to reach far north into the Arctic circle - passing the old Svalbard test - And generating a large Scandi high, with the potential to advect cold Russian air in our direction. That will be in contrast to all the hot air we get from Putin, but the trend which began to be signalled on the control run two days ago, has now been modelled in some form or other at the end of several GFS runs. Whilst I wont get over excited until it is at T90, it connotes a real chance of an easterly with potential for an old fashioned snow event (s) and some bright and frosty fair to boot.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
UncleAlbert
26 January 2023 10:23:33

What is more tangible right now is a persistent signal (albeit in FI) from the GFS for a southerly push to reach far north into the Arctic circle - passing the old Svalbard test - And generating a large Scandi high, with the potential to advect cold Russian air in our direction. That will be in contrast to all the hot air we get from Putin, but the trend which began to be signalled on the control run two days ago, has now been modelled in some form or other at the end of several GFS runs. Whilst I wont get over excited until it is at T90, it connotes a real chance of an easterly with potential for an old fashioned snow event (s) and some bright and frosty fair to boot.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



Definitely a tendency to rein in the major part of the PV back into Greenland rather than spreading it across towards Scandy as seemed almost unanimous from the output a few days ago (the latter still could be the outcome).  It follows from this that the most important result for Joe public is the likely hood of an extension of the benign drier conditions well into February at least for more southern areas.  As for cold further down the line, baby steps in the right direction?

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