Why should we, in vain endeavour, Guess and guess and guess again? [The Gondoliers - G & S] - might well be the motto of GFS Op at the moment, from raging zonality at 0z yesterday to massive Scandi High by 12z. As for this morning....
WX temps (based on GFS) in week 1 cold, in central areas freezing weather all the way down across Europe to N Spain more extensive than yesterday), withdrawing slightly in week 2 with milder air moving up Atlantic coasts as far as S Britain (yesterday the mild had spread well E-wards across Europe but today still freezing in C Europe). Pptn on N Atlantic incl NW Scotland and in Med both weeks, notably dry across continental W Europe week 2.
GFS Op - HP centred to SW of Britain to Thu 2nd (the edge of a N-ly plunge for the E coast Wed 1st), then moving first to France (W-lies for Britain at this stage) and eventually trekking NE to Finland/E Russia 1055mb by Sat 11th. Winds in Britain going round from SW-ly (around Mon 6th) to SE-ly (Sat 11th) with cold air approaching.
ECM similar to GFS though the HP appears to be sticking over S Britain 1035mb Sun 5th rather than moving on to France and points NE.
GEFS mean temp close to norm (Scotland up and down at first, more consistent in S) though op & control much milder than most runs in first week of Feb; pptn in many runs (but not op) also from Sat 4th (a couple of days earlier in Scotland). Snow row figures in the Highlands still significant but lower than yesterday.
Edited by user
26 January 2023 08:52:30
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Reason: Not specified
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl