theweatheroutlook

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Jiries
28 January 2023 12:37:22

All time high pressure record under threat with this one.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=318&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Nice and correct positioned to deliver  full sunny day out of it.
Quantum
28 January 2023 14:06:02

Nice and correct positioned to deliver  full sunny day out of it.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


1058hpa is bonkers!
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
tallyho_83
28 January 2023 14:51:03

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202301260000  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



That's the one - big flip in the ECMWF model when they were going for a reduction in zonal wind speed at 10hpa and for it to stay weaker than average a for the foreseeable with some even going for a reversal and now they are expected to strengthen and stay stronger than average for the foreseeable. 

Thursday 19th January

UserPostedImage

Thursday 26th January - (latest)

UserPostedImage
 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


DPower
28 January 2023 20:02:59
Thanks Doctormog and Tallyho-83. I notice the berlin site may  soon be back up and running again. I heard it would not be back up and running until later this year but I see today the site analysis has the 26 and 27/01/23 updated. Unfortunately when you click on the various indicies ie 10 hpa pressure, temperature, zonal wind etc the page shows data from April last year still. 
Hopefully within the next couple of days or so this will again be fully operational.
 
tallyho_83
28 January 2023 20:34:20

Thanks Doctormog and Tallyho-83. I notice the berlin site may  soon be back up and running again. I heard it would not be back up and running until later this year but I see today the site analysis has the 26 and 27/01/23 updated. Unfortunately when you click on the various indicies ie 10 hpa pressure, temperature, zonal wind etc the page shows data from April last year still. 
Hopefully within the nex
t couple of days or so this will again be fully operational.
 

Originally Posted by: DPower 


Welcome! - Yes hope so!

Last year we had a SSW end of winter as it showed 19th March 2022 and the PV split and this lead to a pretty cold April esp start if I remember and first half of May was quite cold and wet too.
We are still have February to go and may get an SSW then - and even so we can still get cold without SSW. I would have thought after this Stratospheric warming. the PV is much weaker suddenly unlike last year's PV of doom! There should be more chances of blocking to appear later in February and maybe another chance of a SSW and this time a tropospheric response!? hope so as it will give us something to discuss.

Temperatures have already risen from -75c to -30c @ 10hpa in a few days.

UserPostedImage

30hpa
UserPostedImage


 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


nsrobins
29 January 2023 06:46:00

Welcome! - Yes hope so!

Last year we had a SSW end of winter as it showed 19th March 2022 and the PV split and this lead to a pretty cold April esp start if I remember and first half of May was quite cold and wet too.
We are still have February to go and may get an SSW then - and even so we can still get cold without SSW. I would have thought after this Stratospheric warming. the PV is much weaker suddenly unlike last year's PV of doom! There should be more chances of blocking to appear later in February and maybe another chance of a SSW and this time a tropospheric response!? hope so as it will give us something to discuss.

Temperatures have already risen from -75c to -30c @ 10hpa in a few days.

UserPostedImage

30hpa
UserPostedImage


 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Hi Tally - the consensus is there will be no SSW in the next month. To achieve that you need mean zonal winds at 60N to reverse and no model is getting there I’m afraid despite the warming at 10hPa.
http://weatheriscool.com/page11.html 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Jiries
29 January 2023 07:06:35

Hi Tally - the consensus is there will be no SSW in the next month. To achieve that you need mean zonal winds at 60N to reverse and no model is getting there I’m afraid despite the warming at 10hPa.
http://weatheriscool.com/page11.html 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



With the energy bills being too high best to avoid very cold Spring this time.  10 to 11C here in early Feb are welcome early spring like if there sun around. 
moomin75
29 January 2023 07:54:11

Hi Tally - the consensus is there will be no SSW in the next month. To achieve that you need mean zonal winds at 60N to reverse and no model is getting there I’m afraid despite the warming at 10hPa.http://weatheriscool.com/page11.html

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

That's good news really, because an SSW in February would only serve to bring the likelihood of a cold spring, which I'm not sure too many people would want to see.​​​​​​​I am now looking increasingly for signs of spring, and more importantly, a continuation of dry weather so we can carry on mopping up after a really wet winter to date.   
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Matty H
29 January 2023 08:41:27

That's good news really, because an SSW in February would only serve to bring the likelihood of a cold spring, which I'm not sure too many people would want to see.I am now looking increasingly for signs of spring, and more importantly, a continuation of dry weather so we can carry on mopping up after a really wet winter to date.   

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Not necessarily the case as it would depend where it sets up once the split has happened. In an ideal world it could actually bring very mild weather 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 January 2023 08:45:33
The current crop of charts aren't into SSW territory.

WXtemps - after an advance of the 'blue area' yesterday, there's a step backwards today for coldies; freezing weather only over the Alps and Balkans and NE-wards from there (and fragmented at that). Atlantic coasts including Britain stay relatively mild for the next two weeks. The pptn pattern is however consistent, over the N Atlantic (to include W Scotland) and the Med, and very dry for W Europe (just about stretching to SE England)

GFS Op - an area of HP off to the SW for most of the first week, far enough away for a NW-ly blast for Scotland Tue 31st as LP dives into C Europe, but then this HP moving across S Britain to a max pressure 1045 mb Wadden Sea (N Holland) Mon 6th, after which it turns into a broad ridge from Ireland to Poland. From Sat 11th it moves slowly S-wards and by end of charts Tue 14th Britain is under vigorous SW-lies.

ECM - similar though max pressure is 1045mb England

GEFS - mean temp close to norm, a little cooler at first and a little milder later in the S, these trends more marked and more variability in the N,  with small amounts of rain anywhere in some ens members beginning to show up Thu 9th; though in the NW and far N some rain Wed 1st and more extensively and heavier at any time after that. Minimal snow row figures even for Inverness.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Rob K
29 January 2023 10:54:03
Haven’t really looked  at the models much but I have noticed the phone apps have flipped to mild temperatures in double figures for much of next week. Quite welcome after the transition from sunny frosty weather to dull damp 5C days which always feel colder than crisp days of 0-2C. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
tallyho_83
29 January 2023 11:27:09

Hi Tally - the consensus is there will be no SSW in the next month. To achieve that you need mean zonal winds at 60N to reverse and no model is getting there I’m afraid despite the warming at 10hPa.
http://weatheriscool.com/page11.html 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Thanks Neil - I looked at that - I think this only goes up until 13th February and back in 2018 around 2.5 weeks prior to BFTE the SSW was between the 10th - 15th February 2018. This got us the BFTE from 26th February if I remember and then another blast around 15th March. SO there is still time. It should be easier to get a SSW now given we would have a much weaker and more displaced PV. Just hope we don;t get a cold April/May like in 2022 following the SSW on 19th March 2022.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
29 January 2023 13:55:39

Tuesday night into Wednesday looks far from boring or bland for some northern parts unfortunately. I would expect to see a warning issued about it today or tomorrow. At this range it is still possible for the track and intensity to change but give me bland and boring over this  any day.


 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



There is some decent consistency on the track and intensity of that little low pressure core on Tuesday/Wednesday. I wonder if it will prove to be the first named storm of the season. Currently it looks pretty nasty for Orkney but the track and intensity may still change a bit. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_72_1.png  

Here is a link  to the associated weather warning.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
ballamar
29 January 2023 19:10:12
Wonder if ECM is lining up a Feb similar to last year 
tallyho_83
29 January 2023 23:39:14
Both 18z Operational and Control are in agreemen.t @ 240z with high pressure to our NE east and cold air never too far away - over eastern Europe heading westwards! Just a pity low pressure is still lurking out to our west to ruin things!

18z Op @ 240z

UserPostedImage

18z Control @ 240z

UserPostedImage
 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 January 2023 08:02:57
For the next two weeks freezing weather retreats to the east of a line from the Balkans to the Baltic with a minor extension to the Alps and more so over Norway. WX charts also keep pptn in place for this time, mostly in the N Atlantic (incl NW Scotland) and E Med (esp S Turkey) and a rather dry area extensively in between, just a little in W Russia week 1.

GFS Op - LP moving SE- wards from Iceland to Latvia as principal influence until Fri 3rd (severe gales forecast for N Scotland Tue/Wed) while HP steadily moves up from the SW reaching 1040mb S England Mon 6th briefly forming a ridge to Europe until Thu 9th, less well developed than yesterday and directing cold air down to Turkey. This HP cell collapses but another moves in from the W 1040mb Switzerland Sun 12th with Britain under W/SW-lies. In the final chart Wed 15th the HP is moving back towards Britain.

ECM - takes this week's LP away more quickly and HP is 1035mb SW approaches by Fri 3rd which then forms  a N-S ridge Mon 6th and never really extends into continental Europe before collapsing S-wards before Thu 9th. (The charts posted by Tally, above, illustrate why you shouldn't pin your hopes on favourable evolution in deep FI, alas)

GEFS - in the S, after a couple of small dips before Feb 1st, the mean temp stays consistently close to norm, control on the mild side, rain in some ens members from about Thu 9th. Similar temps in the N but with more swings up and down rather than consistency, and a couple of episodes of rain this week quite heavy in W, before a drier spell.

FAX doesn't develop the HP from the SW as in the above models, keeping it further S, 1040mb Biscay Fri 3rd, with strong/gale W-lies for everyone all week esp in N.
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
ballamar
30 January 2023 14:49:57
3/4 members of GEFS remind us that it could turn very cold next month however unlikely it seems currently. Would be happier with the more springlike runs though!
Quantum
30 January 2023 16:15:28

3/4 members of GEFS remind us that it could turn very cold next month however unlikely it seems currently. Would be happier with the more springlike runs though!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Indeed, there has been a weak signal for a while now. One possibility, although unlikely, is that we end up with a scandi high. The ensembles have not dropped this possibility so it remains on the table for now. If anything its becoming slightly more likely over time.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
squish
30 January 2023 16:29:57
The 'weak signal' continues on 12z ICON and GEM.

GFS running a bit late....
 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
ballamar
30 January 2023 17:34:52
P26 is consistent 😂
+1
Snow Hoper
30 January 2023 17:58:25

P26 is consistent 😂

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Can I place an order?😉
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Snow Hoper
30 January 2023 19:11:19
I'll take the ECM as well.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
ballamar
30 January 2023 19:11:41
Cracking ECM tonight
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 January 2023 19:24:27

Cracking ECM tonight

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



I must be missing something - light S-lies from a not terribly cold continent at T =+240 don't stir me even if coloured green. Overnight temps hovering around zero, not unknown in Feb, either https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx?run=12&charthour=228&chartname=2mtmp_uk&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20temp 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
ballamar
30 January 2023 19:31:22

I must be missing something - light S-lies from a not terribly cold continent at T =+240 don't stir me even if coloured green. Overnight temps hovering around zero, not unknown in Feb, either https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx?run=12&charthour=228&chartname=2mtmp_uk&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20temp 

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Play the animation you will see the movement of the colder air is primed to hit our shore and we will also begin to build our own cold pool with stagnating air
+1
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