WX temp charts show W Europe near norm excluding a cold Scandinavia and to a lesser extent Scotland in week 1. Then although there is some movement of cold air S-wards over Russia & Poland, this is on a broad front, less directed S-wards than yesterday. Warmth remains over S Spain and the Caspian, even there moving away to the S. Heavy rain from the Atlantic across Britain and Europe generally except Spain week 1, breaking up into more local patches in week 2.
GFS Op - trough from W of Ireland E-wards well established, local centres 985mb NI Sat 25th and 995mb Cornwall Sun 26th before moving off E-wards, briefly N-lies on back edge. New LP from Atlantic moving in, SW-lies at first, then it gets closer 975mb Clyde Fri 31st. HP then develops in the Atlantic to become a broad area Eire to Norway 1040mb Thu 6th. It looks as if this may split into two as LP develops over E France Sat 8th.
ECM - similar at first but the 'new LP' arrives a bit later and then heads across England 1000mb Sun 2nd. HP then remains rather distant to the W.
GEFS - temps dipping from seasonal norm to 6 or 7C below Tue 28th recovering quickly to 2 or 3 C above Fri 31st with good agreement from ens members, after which wide divergence either side of norm. Some sharp pulses of rain at first in the S, but much less in Scotland where it could well fall as snow on the 27th , then small amounts on and off throughout in time and space.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl