theweatheroutlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 March 2023 07:28:29
Wx charts show cold weather concentrated across the N, reduced in area but still freezing from Scotland across Scandinavia, with some leaking southwards towards the Alps. Perversely the area below zero expands slightly in week 2 but the leak is more towards Poland and Romania and the British Isles closer to norm.

GFS Op - a trough moving in from the Atlantic over the weekend with SW-lies briefly (snow on leading edge?) before the trough moves E develops into twin centres 980mb Wales and Norway Tue 14th with N-lies re-appearing. They don't last and flabby LPs on the Atlantic keep a mostly S-ly flow until the following Tuesday 21st when one LP deepens 990mb Ireland. That deepens, moves E and draws in NE-lies for a few days before slack pressure dominates again from Sat 25th.

ECM - similar to GFS though no sign of a deeper LP on Tue 21st

GEFS - temps up Mon 13th, down Wes 15th, back to norm Fri 17th after which most ens members stay close to seasonal norm but with a good sprinkling of colder runs, almost no warmer ones. Rain present in most ens members until Tue 21st, smaller amounts later. Scotland has similar temp profile though there is a greater proportion of colder runs after the 17th, and also a notable  heavy snow fall 13th/14th which extends S as far as the English Midlands though with decreasing intensity.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
11 March 2023 10:01:13
Pretty solidly mild after the 16th for the South on the ECM ensembles.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
11 March 2023 11:08:07

Pretty solidly mild after the 16th for the South on the ECM ensembles.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Yes, looks another win for ECM. Other models backing off any cold scenario. I think its now time to put away the shovels and get out the bikinis 
Feels very warm now after a cold night. The Sun really packs a punch even so early in the season
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Crepuscular Ray
11 March 2023 12:25:26
GFS 06z still insisting on Scotland staying cold out to 25th with marginal snow events.
This version shows warmer weather at last coming north by 26th/27th
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
CField
11 March 2023 17:00:27
It is a longshot at present but many archive cold Springs from the past have had bitter easterlies erupt out of nowhere .The latest GFS shows a similar set up nearly emerging before energy diverts to Balkans.This spring is definitely old school so far so folly to rule it out.
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
The Beast from the East
11 March 2023 17:15:49
UKMO looks interesting
GEM ends with an easterly again but its a hard slog to get there
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
11 March 2023 17:23:11
Looks like a blink and you miss it mild snap tomorrow into Monday up here. Spring is still on hold and the 12z GFS op run was one of the mildest of the ensemble set in the medium term.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 March 2023 22:16:40

Looks like a blink and you miss it mild snap tomorrow into Monday up here. Spring is still on hold and the 12z GFS op run was one of the mildest of the ensemble set in the medium term.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



MetO forecast for e.g. Edinburgh has a snow and ice warning until 6am and then 11C forecast at midday. Not often you see that combination; any lying snow is going to vanish in hours.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 March 2023 07:59:22
WX charts - the really freezing weather continues to shrink N-wards, retaining a line across Scotland to the Baltic to N Russia with just a suspicion on something cooler stretching towards the Alps. Several areas in the Med beginning to look warm in week 2. Just about everywhere in Europe getting some rain/snow over the next two weeks; for Britain especially heavy in week 1.

GFS Op - LP running across England now (to 975mb Northumberland Tue 14th) with strong SW-lies before and N-lies after. The next LP slows down and sits over Ireland 1000mb Sun 19th with trough extending E into the Baltic. For the following week Britain is sandwiched between N-S ridge of HP 1030mb on Atlantic and LP 995mb Sweden, cold N-ly for E, mild SW-ly for W, but only a slight shift in pressure centres could alter that significantly. Collapse of HP allows Atlantic LP in, 995mb Wales Mon 27th

ECM - LP 14th further S (Thames estuary) and then the next LP covers more of Britain than just Ireland. Finally the ridge of HP is placed further E, in fact the E side of the N Sea, so Britain is under the influence of a distant but large Atlantic LP with S-lies (returning polar air, not tropical, so still cool).

GEFS - after the mild blip on Mon 13th, back in the freezer for a few days, then mean near norm (cooler in the N esp at first) from Fri 17th onwards though op and control are quite cold around Wed 22nd. Rain a little and often throughout (extra pptn as heavy snow in Scotland Tue 14th)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
fairweather
12 March 2023 09:10:39
This past week has demonstrated what is possible but difficult to achieve these days. I would contend the synoptics were the most favourable for years to have deep widespread snowfall and blizzards Countrywide. For example there was lowland non-settling snow here which fell for several hours as there was Countrywide. On other days I could see the heavy rain was just a degree or two off falling as snow as DPs were often quite low. Bearing in mind some isolated places with altitude got their deepest snowfall for years. e.g Sheffield, where I gather parts of the city are as high as 500m. It is annoying that when all the models unravel they always seem to end up that 1-2C degree too high however they get there! Of course it is no coincidence that happens to be the exact amount of temperature rise as caused by AGW so we should not be surprised that Sheffield type events were more common in lowland Britain last century.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
Deep Powder
12 March 2023 11:10:38
When I was at university in Sheffield I don’t remember parts of the city being at 500m. I would imagine the parts you refer to might technically be within the boundaries of the wider city area, but are actually the moors or the peaks. The moors and peaks are indeed very high and prone to good snow in conditions that are less favourable to lower altitudes. The vast majority of folk in Sheffield, however, live far below 500m. Moreover, I saw pictures from places like Dronfield, which as at a modest (compared to 500m) altitude of 150m. These pictures showed very deep snow! Hmmmmm

Seems to be a very fluid period of model watching and never mild the further north you go.
Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
UncleAlbert
12 March 2023 14:46:13

Pretty solidly mild after the 16th for the South on the ECM ensembles.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

A bit of a stand off now between the ECM and GFS suites with the GFS giving a pronounced colder signal particularly around 22cnd and 25th.  Either way with a generally unsettled look, there does not seem to be much 'lamb' in March as we continue through the month.
fairweather
12 March 2023 22:57:41

When I was at university in Sheffield I don’t remember parts of the city being at 500m. I would imagine the parts you refer to might technically be within the boundaries of the wider city area, but are actually the moors or the peaks. The moors and peaks are indeed very high and prone to good snow in conditions that are less favourable to lower altitudes. The vast majority of folk in Sheffield, however, live far below 500m. Moreover, I saw pictures from places like Dronfield, which as at a modest (compared to 500m) altitude of 150m. These pictures showed very deep snow! Hmmmmm

Seems to be a very fluid period of model watching and never mild the further north you go.

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 


Yes - I did just get that height from Google which seemed a bit high to me as well although it just said "parts of the City reach.....".  Nevertheless 150m is still 1.5C drop and that was all it took in many areas.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Rob K
12 March 2023 23:39:05

When I was at university in Sheffield I don’t remember parts of the city being at 500m. I would imagine the parts you refer to might technically be within the boundaries of the wider city area, but are actually the moors or the peaks. The moors and peaks are indeed very high and prone to good snow in conditions that are less favourable to lower altitudes. The vast majority of folk in Sheffield, however, live far below 500m. Moreover, I saw pictures from places like Dronfield, which as at a modest (compared to 500m) altitude of 150m. These pictures showed very deep snow! Hmmmmm

Seems to be a very fluid period of model watching and never mild the further north you go.

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 


I went to Sheffield too and none of the built-up city itself is anything like 500m. I lived in one of the highest parts, Crosspool, and my house was around 230m asl. 
Lodge Moor on the western fringes reaches about 290m which I think is the highest properly built-up area. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Bolty
13 March 2023 07:12:08
A beautiful end to the 0Z GFS. High pressure just to the east, dragging up southerly winds and the first 20°C of the year.

UserPostedImageUserPostedImage
BANK!
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
+4
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 March 2023 07:38:19
WX temp charts show cold weather across the far north of Europe including Scotland for week 1 but there is a progressive shrinkage  in week 2 with temps generally looking mild from S Britain to the Black Sea, even the Alps no longer below zero. Band of pptn from Britain to the Baltic week 1, pulling back to the Atlantic but still affecting Britain to some extent in week 2. Separate patch in Turkey.

GFS Op - current LP near Britain moving away bit not before delivering a N-blast (one day only!) on Tue; the following week dominated by Atlantic LP with SW-lies before it moves to N England1000mb Sun 19th. New LP on Atlantic with more Sw-lies but standing off and as HP arises 1030mb Tue 28th English Channel winds go round into the S.

ECM - LP moves in and affects Scotland on the 18th, rather than the 19th, and after that the Atlantic LP doesn't stand off but pushes troughs E-ward from its centre affecting Britain at least until Thu 23rd with more W-lies rather than SW-lies.

GEFS - sharp dip in temp Tue/Wed 14th/15th then mean back to near norm; suggestion of milder at first but cooler around Wed 22nd (a wide range of ens members to choose from but a cluster of colder runs depress the average). After some heavy  snow in the N early this week, both 13th and 17th, small amounts of rain in most places throughout.

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Downpour
13 March 2023 13:25:13

I went to Sheffield too and none of the built-up city itself is anything like 500m. I lived in one of the highest parts, Crosspool, and my house was around 230m asl. 
Lodge Moor on the western fringes reaches about 290m which I think is the highest properly built-up area. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Indeed, it's one of those quasi myths about the city because it has incredibly widely drawn local authority boundaries which include a fair slice of the Peak District, but are virtually uninhabited rural moorland. 

See also: "Sheffield has more trees and open space than any other UK city".

That all said, it does have some built up districts that are uncommonly high in big-city terms – you mention some such examples above. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
13 March 2023 13:26:45

A beautiful end to the 0Z GFS. High pressure just to the east, dragging up southerly winds and the first 20°C of the year.

UserPostedImageUserPostedImage
BANK!

Originally Posted by: Bolty 



Indeed! 

March – comes in like a lion, goes out like a lamb?
 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+1
Tim A
13 March 2023 13:45:20

This past week has demonstrated what is possible but difficult to achieve these days. I would contend the synoptics were the most favourable for years to have deep widespread snowfall and blizzards Countrywide. For example there was lowland non-settling snow here which fell for several hours as there was Countrywide. On other days I could see the heavy rain was just a degree or two off falling as snow as DPs were often quite low. Bearing in mind some isolated places with altitude got their deepest snowfall for years. e.g Sheffield, where I gather parts of the city are as high as 500m. It is annoying that when all the models unravel they always seem to end up that 1-2C degree too high however they get there! Of course it is no coincidence that happens to be the exact amount of temperature rise as caused by AGW so we should not be surprised that Sheffield type events were more common in lowland Britain last century.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



You are probably right that it would be less marginal without AGW.  Other factor though is that you need (and especially in March) good solid heavy precipitation.  Some areas of the country are so sheltered (thinking York around here) with less than 600mm per year that they just won't get sustained heavy enough precipitation for a decent snowfall from these type of events.   Towns and cities on the Eastern Pennine upslopes are much helped by the orographic effects. 

Speaking of York,  I wonder if Quantum got any snow?  Some relatives in York sent me a pic of a brief dusting at 5am that melted by 7am, they were as usual very jealous of my pics. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Jacee
13 March 2023 19:54:22
You are right about the orographic effects for the eastern slopes of the Pennines. The easterly component to the wind during last weeks event no doubt contributed to the high snowfall totals. Though we managed a good covering here, I couldn't help but be a little jealous of the totals further north!

Similar places, more especially over the trans-Pennine routes, look in line for a covering later tonight as the colder air floods back in. UKV shows the likely areas to see some snowfall in the early hours

UserPostedImage

Then it is a brisk day tomorrow with some convective precipitation streaming in on that west-northwest wind. Potential for hail, thunder, sleet and snow in the mix you would think. UKV again shows some quite potent showers.

UserPostedImage

😊




 
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
14 March 2023 08:32:11
WX charts this morning continue the theme of the freezing area shrinking N-wards, though still manging to link across from Scandinavia to Iceland, and normal temps for the time of year across W Europe including England (Scotland is borderline). Pptn in week 1 mostly from Britain into Scandinavia, retreating from Scandinavia in week 2 but still affecting Britain. A separate area of rain over Turkey also drifts NW-wards in week 2.

GFS Op - a brief N-ly burst for Britain now, followed by a period in which Atlantic depressions drift NE-ward across or close to Britain, mostly taking their time so winds mainly from the SW but switching N-ly after the LP has passed through (990mb Ireland Sat 18th becoming 990mb Northumberland Mon 20th, 990mb again Ireland Sat 25th the last of these suddenly deepening 960 mb Norway Tue 28th with some Arctic influence for N Scotland)

ECM - similar to GFS, though LP hangs around near NW Scotland between 20th and 25th; GFS has a short break at this time

GEFS - temps quickly recovering to norm by Fri 17th, mean staying at norm in the S with good agreement of ens members at least for a week (Scotlanda littlemilder at first and cooler later) pptn in most runs at most times, heaviest in NW week 1 and in SW week 2
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 March 2023 07:53:07
WX charts continuing to show a major shrinkage of the coldest weather over Russia through the next two weeks, though still hanging on over Scandinavia and Iceland (N Scotland on the fringes of this). mild in W Europe, definitely warming up around the E Med and Black Sea. Rain in week 1 Atlantic - Britain - Baltic; in week 2 Atlantic - Britain - France.

GFS Op - A standard zonal set-up (is that why it's so quiet in here?) with LPs moving NE-wards over Britain. The deepest LPs arrive Sat 18th 995mb Ireland, Thu 23rd 980mb Hebrides (this one brings in colder air from the NW and persists to Sun 23rd), Thu 30th 1000 mb Irish Sea (this moves SE not NE-wards)

ECM - much as GFS

GEFS - mean temps generally near norm (a brief milder spell in the N after the present cold weather clears off), perhaps a trend to marginally cooler in a fortnight's time, not many outliers amongst the ens members. Rain in modest amounts anywhere at any time.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
doctormog
15 March 2023 07:55:40
I’m hoping the milder outcomes prevail but the ensemble data here are very mixed: https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
15 March 2023 10:55:15
Yes DEW, standard stuff = quiet MO. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Quantum
15 March 2023 11:44:03
Models all gearing up for bringing the cold back in the last week. JMA and ICON most interested but ECM/GEM/UKMO also on board. GFS is reluctant though.

Also this is not FI, its around 120-144h mark.

 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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