I’m not liking this continued trend on the GFS op runs. Perhaps the FI section will be better.

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They do say that you have a better chance on average of getting a white Easter than you do of getting a white Christmas, and this could well be a year which shows that up but then, we are about to move into British Summer Time tomorrow (due to the change of the clocks) and so, more wintry weather at this time of the year is not exactly something which I would be looking forward to.
 

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Those of you who have gone ad free can now plot bespoke UKV charts here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/model-charts.aspx 

Note: The feature is still in development. Example chart below.

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WX temp charts show the freezing area shrunk to Scandinavia and only there by week 2. But whereas the rest of Europe is near norm in week 1 (though on the cool side), in week 2 colder if not actually sub-zero weather spreads to cover W Europe incl Britain though not Spain. Russia becoming toasty. Rain for most of Europe except Spain in both weeks.

BBC going for very mild at the end of this week before cooler the following week.

GFS Op shows current LP over England moving E, briefly followed by a N-ly and then a ridge of HP before new LP moves closer from the Atlantic, bringing first SW-lies before pushing troughs forward over Britain Thu 30th. There follows a period of complex LP, sometimes an extended trough (NW-SE, Sat 1st), sometimes a localised centre (990mb Cornwall Wed 5th) but finishing with deep LP over Scandinavia (990 mb S Norway Tue 11th) pumping N-lies over Britain.

ECM similar to start with but pressure higher around Wed 5th with the LP shallower and placed further E, in the N Sea.

GEFS first cold then mild by Thu 30th then mean temp close to norm throughout, with most ens members close to mean but sandwiched between a cold Op (8 or 9C below norm on Tue 11th) and an insanely warm control (12C above norm on that date in the S, only a bit less so in the N). Rain from time to time in most places.



 

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By GFS 12z that nasty cold plunge later is much further east again

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All GFS northerly plunges should carry the warning "You believe this forecast at your own risk"!

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WX temp charts show a slowly narrowing band of freezing weather in the north of Europe but a bulge of rather cold conditions stretches down over W Europe, catching Britain on its western side. The compensating bulge of mild weather is over central/western Russia. In week 1 W Europe is already below seasonal norm and it gets colder in week 2. Rain quite generally from the Atlantic across Europe in week 1, the focus shifting E in week 2 but still quite damp everywhere.

GFS Op keeps the  current ridge of HP  briefly, then by Wed 29th LP on the Atlantic brings up SW-lies before pushing a trough across Britain 990mb N Sea Sat 1st. This becomes a distinct LP and moves SE to the Balkans Tue 4th with pressure rising over Scotland but E/NE-lies for England. It then moves back W-wards and links with another LP developing over Norway so by Fri 7th pressure is low from N Norway to S France with strong N-lies down the N Sea. Pressure then rises for a while but a new deep LP in mid-Atlantic promises a reload of the situation of two weeks earlier.

ECM begins by matching GFS but the LP never really gets to the Balkans, instead linking back to the Atlantic so that LP  is sitting over France 1000mb Tue 4th and only weakly extends N-wards after that.

GEFS from cool now to mild Wed 29th then mean temp back to norm Sun 2nd and staying there. The extreme outliers of yesterday have disappeared, but there is a fair scatter of ens members for the period after the 2nd. The N-lies noted above only really appear in the Op run in the S but curiously feature in the control for the N instead, other runs are closer to mean. Quite wet for the first week esp in SW, occasionally damp thereafter.

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Surprised no mention of Friday's potential storm in the south. Hopefully will come to nothing but could be nasty

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A month to late 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0  

Hopefully its a clear high as will fell plesent in any sunshine though under any cloud prob be cold and boring.

in the meantime more wind and rain as beast says that low running along the south channel could be nasty 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0  

WX charts show freezing weather still confined to a narrow strip along the far north of Europe; but the whole of W Europe remains below average temp in week 1 (Britain, for once, is slightly warmer than the continent) and if anything getting colder/cooler in week 2. Any properly springlike weather to be found in Iberia and around the Caspian. Patchy rain across Britain and the rest of W Europe week 1, excepting Scandinavia; as yesterday the rainy area moves SE-wards in week 2 (anywhere S & E of Austria) while dry weather develops over Britain and north to Scandinavia.

The storm in the early hours of Friday referred to in posts above shows up well on the FAX chart - 983mb Bristol Channel at 0000 - but MetO daily forecast is predicting no more than averagely windy with lots of heavy rain for the S.

GFS Op continues the theme of LP on the Atlantic controlling the weather for the rest of this week with SW-ly influence but unlike yesterday does add the secondary depression early Friday 980mb Bristol Channel as above. This secondary becomes the dominant LP centre as moves into Europe by Mon 3rd where it remains as a poorly defined area of LP across W Europe through to Sun 9th. High pressure is centred to the NW of Britain for this period, promising fine weather in the NW but E/NE-lies with occasional disturbances for the SE. HP takes over properly Tue 11th with a broad area of HP W-E across Britain and on to the Baltic.

ECM similar to GFS but places the HP squarely over Britain Mon 3rd - Wed 5th with fine weather for all before joining GFS with the HP further NW Fri 7th as above.

GEFS mild to Sat 1st, then mean temp close to norm throughout but op & control runs are on the cool side for the following week in the SE. Rain this week  esp in the SW then mainly dry.

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Still no interest in the Friday storm? Hopefully the strongest winds will stay in the channel and we get the centre of the low crossing us before filling

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I’ve had my eyes on that and like you say am hoping it’ll end up diving to my south as well as filling in rapidly in doing so, although it looks like being a daytime thing. Also hope that’ll be Autumn’s final fling. 

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The strongest winds appear to be along the channel, the 7 estuary ect if it moves inland it could cause problems I guess. 

Met Office now taking more interest in this storm. Latest gust speeds overnight and (further E) into Fri morning
50+ mph Cornwall, S Devon and (the usual favourite) the Needles Battery
40+ mph the rest of the S Coast and up to 20 or 25 miles inland
Further inland 30+ mph and decreasing away from the coast

But the French coasts will be getting a battering, and the whole of NW France is much windier than Britain.
https://www.windfinder.com/#6/49.2167/-2.1167/2023-03-31T12:00Z/nospots 
 

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WX temp charts finally show the 'blue' area over Scandinavia shrinking back towards Russia over the next 2 weeks, but W & C Europe are below seasonal norm and for C Europe, if anything, become cooler in week 2. Britain is on the edge of this; near norm this week, just a touch milder next week. Dry in Scandinavia and Iberia this week, new dry area over Britain, France and Italy arising next week, and significant rain in most parts around these areas in the respective weeks.

GFS Op - Current large Atlantic LP pouring its energy into locally deep LP 990mb running across S England Fri (see foregoing posts for possible wind speeds) and moving SE to Adriatic Mon 3rd with HP from Britain to Norway (more extensive than yesterday and closer to the then ECM forecast) This ridge rotates slowly from N-S to E-W alignment and becomes localised over Britain 1030mb Sat 8th. It stays there and broadens out S-wards for the following week but with a suggestion Fri 14th that it will drift N-wards and allow colder E-lies from an LP which has been hanging around in Belarus.

ECM - agrees with GFS for the next few days, but the LP in Italy links with that in Belarus by Wed 5th, pushing the HP NW-wards and thereafter bringing in E/NE-lies for England while Scotland remains close to and affected by HP.

GEFS - mild for a day or two before going back to seasonal norm. This lasting with fairly good agreement between ens members until Sat 8th, after which a group of runs including op & control become mild or very mild (but not every run - one or two ultra-cold outliers in the N). Heavy rain on Friday in the S otherwise a prolonged dry period. 
 

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00z GEFS London generally looking settled, dry and warming up during the first 10 days of April.  I like the look of that, so here's hoping the outlook continues that way.

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There's been quite a change from GFS and ECM over the last few days with high pressure looking far more dominant in early April than had been showing. The exact position of the anticyclone is crucial at this time of year and could bring anything from balmy 'summer-like' sunny southerlies to cold grey 'wintry' north-easterlies. Or possibly both in the same spell as the high centre drifts.  

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GEFS average settling down nicely around 1020mb after an initial pressure surge early next week.  Pretty consistent around this level UK wide right through Easter as well.  So hopefully plenty of usable weather with not too much cloud.  Wish the other models were just as keen leading up to the holiday period.

Friday Storm track still the same, but was hoping a shift to the south but doesnt look like it. 
 

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really doesn’t look bad at all at the moment, but breezy and wet. Any stronger winds in the channel.

WX temp charts - pattern much the same as yesterday with really cold weather in the far N of Europe (though not retreating as much as shown yesterday); W Europe generally below seasonal norm and becoming a little colder in week 2; Britain on the fringes of this and nearer norm though perhaps also a little colder in week 2. Pptn pattern also not much changed from yesterday, week 1 dry in Baltic and Spain, week 2 dry in Britain and France, rain well distributed elsewhere.

GFS Op - deep secondary LP spawned on the Atlantic takes over as main centre and whistles across S Britain in early hours of Friday (FAX 983mb; MetO wind warning for S coast also SW generally), eventually to Adriatic Mon 3rd while pressure rises over Britain. This HP weaker than shown yesterday at first with shallow LP passing N Scotland but properly in position 1025mb Wales Fri 7th. It stays there, often forming a N-S extended ridge and sometimes influenced by NE-lies in S England, through to Sat 15th when it splits; one part to Norway, one to Azores, and Britain under a col between.

ECM - similar to GFS through to Sat 8th
(The second half of the ECM forecast is yesterday's 12z output; today's 0z doesn't complete downloading until 0800. This restriction will apply through the summer now BST is in operation. I may revisit and edit if I have time but always check the time of first posting and if edited)

GEFS - temps declining to norm by Sat 1st and staying there with good agreement of ens members to Sat 8th (but milder away from SE midweek and less agreement for Scotland). Mean temp slightly milder for the following week but quite a wide spread. Rain for the S at first but rather dry thereafter. 

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Both GFS and ECM ensembles look warmer this morning.  We need some luck where the high pressure ends up though. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 
 

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WX temp charts show the freezing area retreating from Scandinavia but leaving W Europe still cold for the time of year. Britain on the edge od this cool area and looking average for the next two weeks. Real warmth around the Caspian. Dry in Scandinavia and Spain in week 1, in Scandinavia and Britain week 2, rain elsewhere.

GFS Op show current storm over England moving E to become ill-defined LP over SE Europe by Mon 3rd while pressure rise over Britain extends a ridge to Norway through to Fri 7th. Then HP moves N to Shetland and cooler E-lies affect England for a few days before the HP moves again, this time to the Atlantic with cold LP from the NE covering all Britain Sat 15th.

ECM similar until Wed 5th, but HP then moves S to France; pressure still quite high over Britain but W/SW not E-ly influence to Sun 9th when suggestion of a ridge building N so agreeing with GFS after a break.

GEFS - once present disturbance out of the way, temp near of a degree or two above norm for the next two weeks everywhere, not too much variation in ens members through op on the cold side towards the end. Rather dry everywhere

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A full set of 0's on the Snow Row for us down here in Reading on the GEFS this evening, the 1st time I think since the end of winter. Nothing massively warm to write home about, but as per the phrase "usable" weather in the extended as it stands. Hopefully the rain doesn't go away for the next 6 months.

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WX temps much as yesterday, with freezing weather withdrawing to Russia over the next 2 weeks, just leaving a small patch over the Alps. Between these, Europe remains cool (well below norm), less so in week 2 though by then including Britain which starts week 1 near norm. Very dry week 1 from Scandinavia through Britain to Spain; this area moves N-wards to Iceland- Scotland-Norway in week 2. Rain fairly generally elsewhere.

GFS Op - current LP moving to E Europe with ridge of HP well established Spain to Norway Wed 5th. This rotates to lie W-E Iceland - Norway by Sat 8th and then becomes centred near Iceland Wed 12th with pressure dropping in a broad trough across W Europe incl Britain and into the Atlantic, deepest over Britain 1005mb Sat 15th. There is a more definite block mid Atlantic at this time.

ECM - similar to GFs until Mon 10th when the HP moves E to Finland (not W to Iceland) and the pressure drop over Britain is associated with LP off SW Ireland 985mb Tue 11th barely linking to a much weaker trough over Europe.

GEFS - temps close to norm with good ens agreement to Sat 11th, then rising slightly but the mean is held back by a v. cold op run. Dry until 11th then increasing probability of rain esp in S. 

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