Not a lot of change on the WX temp charts since yesterday; really cold only in the far N of Russia, W Europe taking its time to warm up, S Spain and S Turkey warm but even there a little cooler in week 2. Pptn in week 1 in a broad band from Atlantic to Britain and through Europe to E Turkey, dry in Russia; switch around in week 2, v dry for Britain and Denmark, but heavy rain for Spain, Italy and Greece.

FAX shows the LP which will dominate this week moving from 990mb W Ireland Tue to 976mb Clyde Wed, with (severe) gales in the W, to 1002mb Orkney Fri - and on Friday a secondary 1001mb English Channel. 

GFS Op - see FAX above. The secondary LP moves SE-wards into the continent as pressure rises over Britain to become 1035mb northern N Sea Thu 20th with E-lies for England. Then it weakens and moves W-wards so winds become generally N/NE for a day or two before it re-establishes over England 1020mb Wed 26th. (The deep Atlantic LP which appeared in yesterday's models at this time is now weak and distant)

ECM - slow to load this morning so mostly yesterday's 12z which matches GFS closely, though Atlantic LP closer on Wed 19th increasing the strength of S-ly winds at that time.

GEFS - quite good agreement from ens members for mean temp near norm or a little cooler with plenty of rain until Sat 15th after which drier and mild, even warm, and dry, peaking Thu 20th before returning to norm Wed 26th (the N-lies mentioned above don't show up exc in a few runs for Scotland). Perhaps a little rain in the N late on.

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North American models continue to show a nasty storm, but euros not as bad. I think I would trust the euros on this, hopefully!
 

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UKV going for 88mph max gusts in the south west. 

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That's more than a tad breezy for this time of year especially with everything just starting to come into leaf.

Are you able to post a chart that shows the Isles of Scilly? I'd be interested to see the gusts there - it's often a little stronger than the mainland.
I was down there for the storm a couple of weeks ago and that was a good gale but top gusts were about 70mph in the end which is fairly run of the mill for March. Pushing 90mph in mid April would definitely be unusual. 
 

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The land doesn't appear in the maps unfortunately, but this covers the Isles of Scilly.

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Thanks Brian - it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

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FAX bringing in the well forecast deep LP as a 'dumbbell', two local LPs rotating around a common centre. These centres are in NI and Scottish borders  early tomorrow Wed, then later Hebrides and Wales, all ca 976mb, and accounting for the strongest winds in the west to start with, then in the south. All filling and off into the N Sea by midday Thu, leaving a remnant 1000mb in the Channel Fri.

WX charts on a longer timescale bringing back more persistent cold weather to N Russia than before, but with any outflow across E Europe while W Europe goes from averagely mild in week 1 to promisingly warm in week 2. Pptn pattern like yesterday, week 1 wet in patches across most of Europe but dry in Russia and Spain, reversing in week 2 with heavy rain in Iberia and to a lesser extent in Russia but dry in between.

GFS Op - see above for rest of this week. Then a pressure rise peaking 1035 mb Norway Wed 19th (LP quite close to the west at first, may brush the W Isles) with warm S/SE-ly winds but dissipating by Sun 23rd. Eventually (Wed 26th) Britain lies in a trough of slack LP between centres 995mb each NW Spain and Norwegian Sea.

ECM - like GFS until later on when the HP moves away to the NE and by Fri 21st LP 990 mb is approaching Cornwall rather than heading further S to Spain.

GEFS - temp near norm or a little below with rain to Sat 15th, then becoming mild/v mild and dry around Wed 19th, slowly cooling with a little rain in the following week, even some quite cold ens members for the N by then

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BBC weather showing the first 20C of the year for me a week today - looks like quite a pleasant few days early next week but still no sign of properly settling down.

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‘BBC Weather’  ‘A week today’  do those two go well together? 🤣

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Southern dialect maybe? I'd use the phrase, at least colloquially, meaning a 'week from today'. Scots, as is well known, speak a more exact form of the language (perhaps excepting Glasgow).

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UKV suggesting max gusts of around 87mph in the south west tomorrow.

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UKV suggesting max gusts of 87mph are possible tomorrow in the south west.

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UKV going for max wind gusts of around 87mph in the south west tomorrow.

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I spent the week in Fowey last week, dodged a bullet there!

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If* (big if) the UKv is on the money then this would be the strongest April storm in decades. Gusts close to 90mph, even in exposed parts of the Southwest, are very unusual at this time of the year. 

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... yet even with that, we still can't get an actual named storm (or at least, one which has been named by the UK Met Office, Met Eireann or the Dutch Met service under our own system for that).

This is now making me wonder what on Earth, it is going to take for that to actually happen.


 

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The storm is apparently Antoni, named by the Danish MetO, though charts show it much less severe there than here. EDIT - or is it Noah, as named by France?

Longer term the WX charts show the freeze in the far N of Europe almost gone in week 2 (less prominent than yesterday's chart) and mild in W Europe, even warm in week 2. Rain centred on Czechia week 1, Britain a little damp; in week 2 the rain is in Spain plus a bit in W France.

GFS Op has Antoni with twin centres Clyde and Anglia tomorrow Thu before blowing itself out in the N Sea. The secondary LP for the Channel is deferred to Sat morning (1000mb Kent) but then for the following week HP asserts itself across Britain as part of a ridge  from Azores to Norway. By Mon 24th this has moved north and then west with NE-lies briefly before a shallow  trough dips S from Iceland to cover Britain Wed 26th.

ECM - covers the period to Sat 22nd in the same way as GFS; at the end of the sequence the HP is still over Norway and not showing signs of moving W, so E-lies rather than NE-lies.

GEFS - cool and wet to Sat 15th then mild and dry to Tue 25th (though not as warm as shown yesterday in the S, and a shorter if warmer period in Scotland) before back to norm with a little rain later on. A few alarmingly cold outliers after the 25th esp in NE.

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Really praying for dry weather 24th to 26th, as we’re planning to put our furniture in the tarpaulin garage on the garden, while our flooring’s being laid. 🤞

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The freezing area on WX charts is different day to day; affecting more of Russia in week 1 but really shrunk in week 2. The biggest change from yesterday is that warm weather no longer appears in middle Europe in week 2, instead rather cold, while milder weather spreads north up the Atlantic coast to Britain. Rain in week 1 centred on Czechia, dry in Finland and Spain; in week 2 wet in Ireland and around the Black Sea, dry in the N Sea and coasts adjoining.

GFS Op - Storm (Noah or whatever it was called) filling in the N Sea near Scotland and the small Channel Low even smaller and briefer than previously forecast. Starting Sun 16th, a ridge of HP from Britain to Norway, becoming centred Norway 1045mb Wed 19th with E-lies for Britain. The HP declines but remains as a narrow ridge over Britain from Sun 23rd, being nibbled at on both sides, LP over Baltic closest approach on Tue 25th while that on Atlantic closest on Fri 28th

ECM - similar to GFS for most of the period but it looks as if HP will continue over Norway from Fri 21st rather than declining

GEFS - increase in temp (slower in SE) to a little above norm lasting to Sun 23rd with good ens agreement after which a suddenly very wide range of scenarios, probably related to whether that narrow ridge of HP mentioned above is just W (cold) or just E (warm) of Britain. Mainly dry throughout in S, significant rain appearing in several ens members in the N & W after 23rd.

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Models all at odds with each other this evening.  GFS op has become a bit of a party pooper over recent runs keeping 850s depressed as we go through next week and ominously quite a few members now joining in. Op cool and unsettled by day 10. ECM goes the other way bringing balmy conditions up from the south later next week.  GEM agrees with the ECM but brings something decidedly wintry to northern and eastern areas late on in the run.  Any bets on what next Thursday will be like?

The 'blue areas' on WX temp charts have by week 2 shrunk to just N Norway and Iceland. The predictions of the next level down of cooler weather aren't consistent; yesterday the focus for this was over continental Europe, today this focus has moved W-wards and notably so for quite a cold Britain by week 2. Med warming up nicely. Rain in week 1 from S Germany to Greece, dry in Spain & Baltic; in week 2 one area from Atlantic - S England - Poland and another Iceland - N Norway, dry in Med & Russia.

GFS Op - current LP diving SE into Europe. By Wed 19th HP has moved up from the S passing Britain en route to 1035mb Norway and these synoptics generate E-lies for Britain. By Sat 22nd the HP has moved W into the Atlantic, pressure has dropped over Norway with trough to 990mb Biscay and cold NE-lies set in (If only this were January!). There follows a somewhat confused period to Sat 29th but the general trend is for either slack LP or a trough over Britain with air from a cold source N or NE. 

ECM - is much more springlike than GFS; it's the same until Wed 19th but the HP then moves SW rather than W and on Mon 24th is situated 1025mb over England with air from the S/SE and no sign of Arctic air from the NE anywhere.

Neither model shows the narrow N-S ridge of HP over Britain in a week's time which was a feature of yesterday's charts.

GEFS - also a big change from yesterday. Temps to Fri 21st only just above norm (previously mild) after which altough the mean stays near norm there is much less agreement between ens members with op & control both v cold from Sat 22nd. Rain also setting in on this date, more than yesterday esp in the S.

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Big contrasts between ECM and GFS Ops today as Dew mentions. If you look at the average charts for both they are rather closer with a general cooling trend through April now showing - but less so in ECM. As in winter with cold spells, it feels like we are getting into 'jam tomorrow' territory for any prolonged warm spells. Will be interesting to see how the charts pan out over the next few days. In the meantime, after the weekend west is best although I notice the Scottish Highlands are likely to enjoy some spring warmth too. 

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LOL, at least they didnt ask Brian for a quote

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And there it is, the obligatory north easterlies associated with a strong Scandy high, it magically appears in late April and probably last into mid Summer. Happens every time.

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yes it does seem to be a common occurrence at this time of year, at least it should dry out a bit but not the 20c temperatures they were forecasting a few days ago. Looking like May at least now before we get a warm spell.

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