theweatheroutlook

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noodle doodle
17 April 2023 21:36:17
My wife's doing the London marathon on Sunday so the weather can stay 12c and drizzly down south till Monday thanks. I'd like some sun up here though 😉
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 April 2023 07:07:23
One of those days when there's a repeat from yesterday on WX  with exceptions in bold: charts shrink the blue (freezing) areas to virtually nothing by week 2, but cool weather persists through W Europe including Britain. Warmth still in Iberia now shown as advancing into France; OTOH the hot weather around the Caspian makes a push into Ukraine and W Russia. Patches of rain scattered across W Europe and down to Greece in week 1; in much the same place in week 2 but development on the Atlantic also threatens W Britain in week 2 , the latter less marked than yesterday.

GFS Op - HP currently over Norway weakening and moving W to Greenland by Sat 22nd replaced by broad trough of LP from mid-Atlantic to Norway  with one of its centres 1000mb Yorkshire. For the following week it's still there, but with Britain mostly in a col between the Atlantic and Norway, Britain's west coast tending to have S-lies and the E coast N-lies. From Sun 30th HP replaces the col 1030mb Scotland  and SE-lies across England.

ECM - quite close to GFS throughout

GEFS - better agreement between ens members than yesterday. Temps near norm to Sat 22nd, then  cool (W coast) or cold (E coast) to Sat 29th, after which ens members distributed either side of norm. Rain generally setting in Fri 21st (a day or two later in the W) quite persistent for a week, drier in most runs after Sat 29th and notably drier in N Scotland but what pptn there is may well fall as snow around Tue 25th. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Quantum
18 April 2023 13:01:05
UserPostedImage
P15
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
bledur
18 April 2023 13:25:03

Yes, I wholeheartedly agree - and not just because I hate heat with a passion (especially after last year, where I had to book into a hotel as it was simply unliveable at home - the day it reached 40C here).

I think some people forget that we aren't a Med nation, and a day of 20C in April, let alone above, is still very much in the minority rather than something that should be expected with any great regularity! The mean maximum down here in April has risen from 12C to 14C in the past 30 years, which is more than enough, thank you very much.

Talking of which, I updated my long-running CET sheet, which I use for various calculations. Updating the means from 81-10 to 91-20 invariably raised them by a half degree or so, which shows how fast things are warming.

Based on that, the last summer with all 3 individual months below average (91-20) was 2015, before that 2011 then 2008. The last summer with all 3 months above average was 2022, then 2018, then 2016... you get the idea. Even in that latest 30-year period, the warmth is skewed to the latter half.

The current outlook, which continues to be average to rather cold, should at least remind us of how things should be; after all, over time half the months should be colder than average!

And for the heat-hounds on here, don't worry: we've still got plenty of time for things to flip back to warmer conditions, including "flaming June" and the rest of the summer. A few coolish weeks in April is certainly not a sign that the summer as a whole will be cold, or even average, as I'm sure we all know!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


 Yes that is true and this spring seems to be bucking the trend of warm and dry, on a farming front it is going to be one of the latest for a long time for turning out cattle  . 
+1
DEW
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19 April 2023 07:02:39
Not much change in the WX temp charts for week 1, i.e. freezing conditions limited to the far N of Norway and Russia, though a large cold pool covers W Europe including Britain. In week 2 this cold pool moves further east to lie from Sweden down to the Balkans while something much warmer moves up from Spain to cover France and gets close to England (Scotland may have to wait for tomorrow's forecast). Also very warm east of Urals. Patchy rain across Europe except Iberia week 1, but dry area develops over Denmark week 2 and stretching to Britain's E coast but otherwise rain in most of Europe.

GFS Op - consistent with yesterday; current HP near Shetland moving W to Greenland by Sat 22nd while extended trough from Atlantic to Norway develops across Britain with possibility of rain from the SW later according to MetO. During the following week this trough splits with twin centres in Atlantic and in Norway; the temp in Britain is on a knife-edge between mild in W and cold in E. By Sat 29th HP is moving up from the S to become centred S Sweden 1030mb Thu 4th with mild, maybe warm, S-lies.

ECM - similar to GFS though the col following 22nd is broader suggesting drier and more even temps in the following week.

GEFS - in S England, cool esp Fri 21st and Wed 26th (but not as cool or prolonged as previously shown) then a degree or two above norm through to Fri 5th, op very warm at end. Wet for a few days following 21st but drier and varying in different ens members afterwards. Scotland, just one marked dip in temp around 26th but followed by only just above norm, and again wet at first but also more likely wet later on. E coast profile like Scotland, Wales more like S England but wetter 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
19 April 2023 10:05:49
A pretty solid signal now for a warm up around the 27th. But we've been here before a couple of weeks ago and it failed to materialise.  Hopefully more luck this time as we need some proper warmth now please.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
UncleAlbert
19 April 2023 13:30:11

A pretty solid signal now for a warm up around the 27th. But we've been here before a couple of weeks ago and it failed to materialise.  Hopefully more luck this time as we need some proper warmth now please.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Actually I am inclined to stick my neck out and say that next week may be not too bad overall, at least here in the south, with a chilly start but with the airmass increasingly sourced from a southerly point.  May be some cloud at times with a few showers within the thermal gradient?  But I think plenty of room for optimism for now.
Jiries
19 April 2023 17:25:41

A pretty solid signal now for a warm up around the 27th. But we've been here before a couple of weeks ago and it failed to materialise.  Hopefully more luck this time as we need some proper warmth now please.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Hope those stupid models wont steal it again. Need some normal few days of low 20s in April and give indoor boost to over 20C.
Retron
19 April 2023 17:52:34

Hope those stupid models wont steal it again. Need some normal few days of low 20s in April and give indoor boost to over 20C.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


I'd like very much for it not to happen any time soon, but sadly I can't control the weather! 20C widely is of course inevitable and the models are still showing it as becoming much more likely by the end of the month.

It's already 23C in my house, btw, and I had the first 25 a couple of days ago. All you need is a shed on top of your house and you too can "enjoy" the heat!
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
19 April 2023 20:58:34

I'd like very much for it not to happen any time soon, but sadly I can't control the weather! 20C widely is of course inevitable and the models are still showing it as becoming much more likely by the end of the month.

It's already 23C in my house, btw, and I had the first 25 a couple of days ago. All you need is a shed on top of your house and you too can "enjoy" the heat!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Planning to install conservatory facing south to warm the house well.  My neighbour's 3x3m type helped to bring indoors 24C compare to mine at 19C.  Just need the models to allow this to happen this time.  Plus no heating needed anymore until Autumn.
doctormog
20 April 2023 06:12:49
The -9°C t850hPa mean for next Tuesday on the GFS 00z ensemble set for here is impressive for late April.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
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20 April 2023 07:17:07
WX charts; week 1 is still looking cool even cold for most of Europe including Britain even if the freezingly cold area is reduced in area, but in week 2 that freezing area is minimal over Norway, the cool/cold patch has shifted east to Poland and milder weather is moving up from the S to affect Britain, W France even looking quite warm. Dry in week 1 over Spain & Med, damp elsewhere; in week 2 dry S Spain, Med, N Sea to Norway with some rain hanging around in S England and Wales.

GFS Op - HP currently 1035mb Faeroes with troughs moving W-wards across England, as in previous charts this HP to Greenland by Sat but with broad trough from mid-Atlantic to Norway incl Britain splitting to leave Britain under a col to Wed 26th balanced between N-lies from the Norwegian side and S-lies from the Atlantic side. By Sat 29th the Atlantic has prevailed bringing up mild S-lies and a pressure rise in the NSea. The following week has an indeterminate slack pressure area over Britain, tending to exhibit HP over Scotland and LP over the Channel. 

ECM -very close to GFS

GEFS - cool to Tue 24th, a notably cold burst for a couple of days (briefer than yesterday in the S but longer in the N) temps recovering quickly, close to or a little above norm from Fri 28th for the rest of the forecast period with quite good ens agreement. Quite wet for week 1, throughout in S, just a few spells of heavy rain further N, still damp in week 2 from time to time. Good chance of heavy snowfall in the Highlands Tue 24th (snow row =30 for Inverness). 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
ballamar
20 April 2023 10:52:56
Familiar pattern on the 6z with some heat developing over Portugal and Spain. Bring it on!
+1
Caz
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20 April 2023 18:33:18
Cold is OK but I really don’t want a lot of rain from Monday 24th to Thursday 27th, as our sofas and bed will be in a tarpaulin garage on the garden while our flooring’s being laid. 🙄
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
DEW
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21 April 2023 06:58:01
WX charts look much the same as yesterday; week 1 is still looking cool even cold for most of Europe including Britain even if the freezingly cold area is reduced in area, but in week 2 that freezing area is minimal over Norway, the cool/cold patch has shifted east to Poland and milder weather is moving up from the S to affect Britain, W France even looking quite warm. Dry in week 1 over Spain & Med, damp elsewhere; in week 2 dry S Spain, Med, N Sea to Norway with some rain hanging around in S England and Wales. Perhaps the 'milder weather moving up from the S' is less obvious and the 'freezing area' not quite so minimal.

GFS Op - Atlantic LP staying in position while it spews forth a trough across Britain, this trough becoming a separate LP centred Sweden 1000mb Tue 25th with brief spell of N-ly weather for Britain. Then a steady pressure rise over the British Isles, and by Mon 1st (BH) 1025 mb HP covers the N Sea with winds from the S. This HP never develops strongly and eventually drifts away NW-wards allowing by Fri 5th the original LP over Norway (which had persisted throughout) to combine with a new Atlantic trough moving into France for a spell of E/NE influence.

ECM - similar to GFS but the pressure rise for the BH weekend is broader, stronger 1020mb and centred over Britain

GEFS - in the S, temps near norm now, dipping colder briefly Tue 25th, back to norm Thu 27th and then a long period a few degrees above  (though the op run is a cold outlier for part of this time). Quite wet for a few days then rain occasional in one ens member or another. In the N, similar, though the colder dip is more persistent, a day or two longer at each end, but only one pulse of rain to Tue 25th, not 2 or 3. Highland snow a good bet for Mon 24th.

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Rob K
21 April 2023 08:27:46
It really is amazing how the weather forecasts have changed for this coming weekend. This time last week when I was trying to make plans, I was looking at sunshine and 18-19C all weekend. Now the forecast is for 12-13C with a wet Sunday. Dire stuff for the second half of April.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
sunny coast
21 April 2023 10:27:29

It really is amazing how the weather forecasts have changed for this coming weekend. This time last week when I was trying to make plans, I was looking at sunshine and 18-19C all weekend. Now the forecast is for 12-13C with a wet Sunday. Dire stuff for the second half of April.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 




Indeed was thinking the same not the first time recently when week ahead outlooks have gone wrong . Today a morning of overcast skies alight but persistent rain and 6 degrees  pretty dire and the weekend doesn't look any better altho the temps should rise maybe to double figures once the rain clears 
cultman1
21 April 2023 10:29:08
As far as the south is concerned it does seem we are in for an unseasonably cool period of NE/E driven windy weather  for some time all rather depressing . Dare I say a portent for a cooler than average summer? Probably way too early to speculate. 
fairweather
21 April 2023 10:33:33

A pretty solid signal now for a warm up around the 27th. But we've been here before a couple of weeks ago and it failed to materialise.  Hopefully more luck this time as we need some proper warmth now please.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Indeed, but as you said it's been a month of jam tomorrow. Based on last week's models and the BBC forecast I had a couple of days down in Christchurch this Tues/Wed. Back then the forecast was pretty much warming up, definitely dry with sunny periods. it turned out to rain both days, but not heavily, a bitterly cold easterly wind and predominantly cloudy although Wed afternoon was sunny. All because the HP did what it never does in winter, setttled nicely over Scandinavia. So 9C on the South coast instead of predicted 15C. The start of next week looks even worse and would have been classic for snow in the S.E in January.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Brian Gaze
21 April 2023 10:36:03

As far as the south is concerned it does seem we are in for an unseasonably cool period of NE/E driven windy weather  for some time all rather depressing . Dare I say a portent for a cooler than average summer? Probably way too early to speculate. 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



No, but the fact that we have just installed climate control in 2 of the bedrooms in our house most definitely is.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
21 April 2023 13:18:27

It really is amazing how the weather forecasts have changed for this coming weekend. This time last week when I was trying to make plans, I was looking at sunshine and 18-19C all weekend. Now the forecast is for 12-13C with a wet Sunday. Dire stuff for the second half of April.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Yes, it's been quite a turn-around, hasn't it?  Not much sign of warm, dry, settled weather in this part of the country for the forseeable, either.
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
GezM
  • GezM
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21 April 2023 13:53:52

Yes, it's been quite a turn-around, hasn't it?  Not much sign of warm, dry, settled weather in this part of the country for the forseeable, either.

Originally Posted by: AJ* 



We're at the time of year where most of us are looking to get outside for one reason or another. Often needing to plan ahead so there is much more focus in advance of the weekends than perhaps in late autumn or winter. I think we notice these model fluctuations much more in the summer, especially when the forecast gets downgraded. 

Incidentally, I notice that from April through til September, the longer term models fail to pick up on crucial upper level disturbances which can make the difference between dry and wet.  Then lo and behold the fax charts come into range and show a front sitting over you on that important day! Seems opposite to the winter months where we are often desperate for wintry precipitation and nothing arrives!!
 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+1
Jiries
21 April 2023 21:45:11

Yes, it's been quite a turn-around, hasn't it?  Not much sign of warm, dry, settled weather in this part of the country for the forseeable, either.

Originally Posted by: AJ* 



It getting very worry some as now we down to 8 weeks left for longest day and so far not a single day had been useable warm enough to enjoy it so lost already 6 weeks of potential warm days of 18C in March and low 20's in April average highest maxes expected.  Most days I closed the indoor shutters early at 7.30pm and open late in the mornings to keep indoor warm enough.  Not had reached 20C without heating since Feb when it touched 19.5C.  
sunny coast
21 April 2023 23:23:56

It getting very worry some as now we down to 8 weeks left for longest day and so far not a single day had been useable warm enough to enjoy it so lost already 6 weeks of potential warm days of 18C in March and low 20's in April average highest maxes expected.  Most days I closed the indoor shutters early at 7.30pm and open late in the mornings to keep indoor warm enough.  Not had reached 20C without heating since Feb when it touched 19.5C.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



It may be unusual compared to recent times but quite normal really  for April. it may be cool but I could list several years when heavy snow fall has occurred even in southern England 
Taylor1740
22 April 2023 06:38:26
It's looking like another forecast warm spell has vanished into thin air to be replaced with more cool and unsettled weather!

Could end up being a very wet spring this ☔
NW Leeds - 150m amsl

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