Quite a dramatic difference in the WX summary charts for week 1 and week 2. This week the cold 'puddle' is in place all the way down from Finland to the Black Sea; in week 2 this replaced by a warm, even hot , blast from the east reaching the Baltic and covering Poland and Romania with temps jumping 10C+ in many places. Alas, Britain shows little change from the present, perhaps a little cooler as warmth in week 1 over Biscay retreats back to Spain. Rainfall back to the position it occupied a couple of days ago, Atlantic, Britain, Alps, Greece, in addition heavier in week 2, and by then some also affecting S Scandinavia.

GFS Op - the current HP soon moving off to Norway and then by degrees making its way SE to E Ukraine 1020 mb Tue 17th, leaving Britain at the mercy of Atlantic influence. At first a weak trough moving N wards Fri 5th, then a brief respite before LP dives SE to reach Holland 1005mb Thu 11th, then another Brittany 995mb Sat 13th, finally LP to cover whole of Britain1000 mb Wed 17th, slowly filling in situ.  All of these drag down cool-ish air from the NW. 

ECM - more optimistic than GFS towards the end of run with the LP over Holland more diffuse and drifting away Ewards as it fills, followed by a rise in pressure Galicia 1035mb ridging NE-wards to just about reach Scotland Sat 13th.

GEFS - temps a little above norm to Tue 10th (more than a little in the S for a couple of days), then a little below norm out to Fri 17th, not a great deal of spread in ens members. Rain in most ens members on most days, not a lot on any given day but will mount up. Likely to be heaviest w/b Sun 7th and also more in the SW (one or two big totals here), least in NE.

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Definitely some hints now that the Azores High is trying to build towards the UK. Bit unconvincing atm but a straw to clutch. 
🤞

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Agreed, Sunday is looking a bit of a day of two halves, starting cloudy with maybe some drizzle but improving during the day to suit all of the Coronation BBQs hopefully. Certainly unconvincing after that for now but tentative signs...

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WX charts suggest that the output is far from stable. Yesterday's burst of heat from the east has gone. Instead we have that persistent cold puddle over Eastern Europe in week 1 followed by a modest warming up S of a line S France - N Italy - Romania. E Europe becomes a bit milder; NW Europe incl Britain if anything a little cooler. At least the 'blue areas' have gone. Rain for both weeks in a band from S Iceland - Britain - Alps - Greece.

GFS Op - this week's HP has faded and is replaced by troughs moving N-wards over Britain controlled by LP mid-Atlantic to Wed 10th when there is a brief respite before LP from the NW moves in, especially deep 980mb E Anglia Sun 14th. This moves off to the NE and the rest of the charts are for a fairly standard W/NW-ly Atlantic regime.

ECM - differs from GFS after Mon 8th when it shows a gentle W/NW-ly setting in and continuing; the nearest LP on Sun 14th is 1010mb Hungary.

GEFS - temps mostly a little above norm to Wed 10th then a little below for the rest, good ens agreement. Rain frequent but not particularly heavy in most runs, most likely around the 9th/10th (GEFS isn't picking up any effect from the LP on the 13th). Some bigger totals of rain in the far SW. also milder later on.

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The GFS model is in a foul mood this morning, ain't it? 🤣

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Thanks Dew, as always.

After a brief relatively fine interlude, the SSW Curse of Spring 2023 continues. ☹

Azores High really showing its hand this morning and building over the UK in about a week. 👍

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WX summary temps still oscillating around. Cold pool over E Europe being displaced by warmth from the east in week 2 as forecast two days ago but not yesterday; Spain getting warmer again but not moving N to Britain & NW europe, where temps seem to remain static. Rainfall in week 1 as yesterday with that band from the Atlantic through Britain to the Balkans; but better in week 2 as this splits into an Atlantic blob (affecting NW Scotland) and an even heavier Adriatic one, drier in between.

GFS Op - shallow troughs hanging around over Britain first from the S then from NW until Thu 11th when Azores HP moves in to affect the S while LP runs past close to/over Scotland 990mb Rockall Sun 14th (no trace of yesterday's Anglian LP) and again Fri 19th both projecting something of a trough SE-wards but in each case being nudged away by a revival of the Azores HP.

ECM - similar to GFS but overall pressure generally higher.

GEFS - mild at first, becoming cooler around Tue 9th with rain; small amounts of rain at any time thereafter and temps back to norm, even somewhat cooler around Tue 16th. In the N less rain at first but spread out over a longer period later

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Beginning to look like the whole of May will be pretty miserable up here in Scotland.

WX temp summaries divide sharply weeks 1 & 2; week 1, the cold-ish area is still in place from W Russia down to Greece and NW Europe a little below average; week 2, spring warmth has spread across all continental Europe, albeit patchily. But the Atlantic fringe - Britain, Norway, Sweden - remaining close to norm with little change. Rainfall in week 1 as previously noted in a band from Britain down to Greece with dry area in the E Baltic, becoming patchy but widespread over Europe week 2.

GFS Op - no dominating pattern, HP from the SW reaching Britain Mon 8th, Fri 12th, Wed 17th; Troughs from the Atlantic, mostly from the NW,  Wed 10th, Tue 16th (affecting Scotland), Sat 20th.

ECM - missing the LP on Tue 16th, otherwise similar

GEFS - temps close to norm, a little above now and around Sat 13th, otherwise mostly a little below norm. Rain frequent and quite heavy this coming week, smaller amounts after that but not really dry. 

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WX temp charts are if anything a step back from yesterday for Britain. In week 1 the cold 'puddle' over E Europe id still there but displaced by warmth from the east in week 2, not getting further than Poland (more W-ward extent shown yesterday). To block this warmth, Britain has seasonal norm for week 1 (despite popular wishes, this is not really warm) and then cooler weather extends S-wards from Iceland where it's still on the edge of freezing, in the direction of the N Sea affecting Britain and Norway. Rain as yesterday in week 1 in a band from Iceland to Britain to Greece, dry in the Baltic; then in week 2 quite general across W Europe with one particularly heavy spot in C England.

GFS Op - much more influenced by LP than yesterday, HP only briefly present over Britain Sat 13th and a half-promise for the end of the run Tue 23rd, otherwise staying out of the way in various places from Kazakhstan to Finland. A brief LP incursion from the N Thu 11th before the main LP - Mon 15th 1000mb N Sea, moving W to Ireland by Thu 18th and curling round to N England 990 mb Sat 20th before moving N to Scotland.

ECM - agrees with GFS to Mon 15th but that LP then fills leaving britain in a col of slack LP between HP on the Atantic and over Scandinavia, with pressure in fact quite high (1020mb Wed 17th)

GEFS - small amounts of rain throughout, somewhat front-loaded with more this week than later, temps dipping below norm around Thu 11th  (just in the S) and  Tue 16th, otherwise close to or a little above seasonal norm.

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6z run showing some proper northern blocking setting up over Greenland, could be June at this rate before the ground dries out.

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Very,very poor forecast from met for today. No sign of the widespread heavy and slow moving thundery showers we were expected to see.

WX temp charts have re-instated the warmer flow from the east  in week 2 and today show it as far west as Holland. It looks like quite a rapid turnaround for the Alps through to Greece where week 1 is still well below norm. Meanwhile Britain is still under N-ly influence, a little below norm and holding off milder/warmer weather from both E & S through into week 2. Rainfall in week 1 in a broad band from Britain to Greece, especially heavy in the Adriatic; in week 2 the area of rain shrinks away to the E/SE.

GFS Op - Somewhat better than yesterday with less LP over Britain but by no means settled. A shallow trough from the N becomes centred 1010mb Irish Sea Thu 11th but then pressure rises from the SW with ridge to Norway until Sun 14th. This ridge splits leaving Britain in a poorly-defined col between centres of LP, one SW of Iceland and the other variously near the Alps, by Wed 17th. The ridge re-establishes briefly over that weekend but LP from Iceland tracks SE to reach N Sea 1005mb Tue 23rd before moving NE-wards and dragging some cold air behind it.

ECM - like GFS but pressure remains high close to Ireland after the split in the ridge after Sun 14th; but later drops over Norway allowing weak N-lies by Tue 16th

GEFS - temps mostly near seasonal norm though cooler for a few days around Tue 16th; and a noticeably wider spread of predictions from ens members later on in the N. Some heavy rain in the next day or two followed by regular small daily amounts (showers?) in the S esp the SW, less of a pattern but continued amounts in the N esp  around 15th in the far N,  drier in many runs everywhere from 17th.

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WX temp summary consistent with yesterday's chart; below norm over W Europe week 1 being replaced by warmth from the east, but not reaching quite as far, so cool weather remains over Britain and much of France into week 2. Rain across Britain and much of W Europe (v. heavy in N Adriatic) to the Balkans and Black Sea; dry in Spain and the Baltic, the latter area expanding dramatically in week 2 and stretching to Greenland.

Jet - nothing very strong or persistent but such streaks as appear are consistently in the latitude of mid-Atlantic to France.

GFS Op - shallow trough covering Britain to Thu 11th, replaced briefly by ridge of HP from Azores to Norway, but new trough dips S-wards from Iceland developing a centre 1005mb Kent Mon 15th. This sits around over France/Germany/Italy for the rest of the week while a large area of HP extends from Norway to Iceland. This HP stays around, drifting W-wards, while new LP moves in to Britain from the Atlantic, showing influence from Sun 15th and eventually finishing up 990mb Hebrides Thu 25th.

ECM - similar to GFS though the 'Norway to Iceland' HP extends further south to include Scotland

GEFS - temps near seasonal norm, tendency to be a little cooler around Tue 16th and a little warmer around Sun 21st. Regular but not extreme amounts of rain throughout, driest around Sat 13th, wettest around 16th; often drier in Scotland esp in the NE and around Sat 20th.
 

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GFS 6z isn't terrible, especially away from the SE/E as we move into FI (persinstent low to the SE of the UK, which GFS moves NNW'wards in the far reaches of the run).

0z ECM doesn't develop the low, so keeps it better for more people.

 

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Not terrible, no, but far away from a decent dry spell to allow us to dry out.

Our cricket ground remains under water, similar to how it was in 2007, 2008 and 2012, and I can't see any hope of it drying out any time soon.
A terrible spring here!

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yes that Azores high is the furthest away from us that I have seen in a long time on the 6z. Looks like it will be at least June before it drys out properly which is really late given the cricket season starts at the beginning of April.

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This is the ppn accumulation anomaly chart for a week's time.

Away from the SE quadrant, it's pretty dry.

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Wonderful! Just what I needed to see. Thanks a lot Saint 😂😂😂

Maybe I can play cricket next summer! I may take up Yachting across out cricket ground this year, as we did in 2007!

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These were terrible summers too.

In week 1 the WX temp charts show the cold spring beginning to lose its grip over Europe, with some warmth beginning to spread from the east, as yesterday, though a patch near the N Sea incl Britain and extending S into France remains cool. In week 2 the springlike conditions have spread further, across N Germany to the Channel coast with Britain generally warming (a little). Some of the cooler air gets trapped over the Alps and Pyrenees. In week 1 rain is expected over much of W Europe, not much in Britain and dry in the Baltic and Spain. In week 2 Spain has become damp but the Baltic dry area has extended to Britain.

GFS Op - Current trough over Britain filling and moving S to settle over S France Sat 13th, and later Italy, still some NE-lies for England while HP builds Atlantic - Scotland - Norway. This HP retreats SW-wards Tue 16th, with brief N-lies, but resumes for the rest of the forecast period albeit weakened around Tue 23rd by LP pushing N-wards from S Europe, where it has been located for some 10 days.

ECM - like GFS at first but after Tue 16th the HP develops more towards the north centred 1030mb Faeroes Sat 20th with a more definite E/NE flow for all of Britain, not just the S

GEFS - all ens members near norm now, dipping a little around Tue 16th, then mostly warming a little (op & control strongly so). Intermittent small amounts of rain & even those diminishing. Scotland and N England however get a one-off peak Mon 15th, and the odd run produces some big totals on one or two days in the E.

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GFS keeps the general theme of high pressure to our SW and NE. At various times, either one ridges over us and at others, low pressure elbows its way between. Again, not a terrible evolution for most, albeit less settled for the north than yesterday's runs.

ECM is a little different, in that it builds high pressure just to the north of the UK, but influencing pretty much the whole country and bringing settled weather to all bar perhaps the far south. Easterly flow likely to bring some cloud to eastern regions.

GEM similar to GFS in terms of general pattern, but with more of a gap between the two highs, allowing a fairly slack low to plonk itself over the UK for much of the mid/latter stages of the run.

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Don't encourage him with the pattern matching 🙂

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That's not the accumulated precipitation anomaly. It's a chart showing the anomaly for precipitable water at that momemt in time - i.e. the air over the UK was forecast to be moister than normal, meaning in theory there would be heavier rainfall if conditions permitted rain to fall.

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