theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

fairweather
01 June 2023 22:10:28

It's been a glorious spell of weather hasn't it?! 
Day after day of sunshine from dawn until dusk and pleasantly warm rather than too hot. Probably the best spell of weather I can remember for years.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 


Must be fantastic in the Scilly Isles. Pretty grim here in the S.E. from the start of Spring really. Firstly wet and cold and now bone dry, always cloudy am with a bone chilling easterly wind. It does creep up to 19-20C pm for a while before the cloud rolls back in late afternoon though. Bad growing weather, 3 weeks without rain in a very dry strong wind. Can't remember the same HP staying in the identical location for so long in May and June before and no sign of it altering in  the models for the next couple of weeks, at least.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 June 2023 07:06:02
WX temp charts show the Continent seasonally warming up, with the current cool area over E Europe being replaced by warmth in week 2. But Britain (unlike yesterday) and N Scandinavia remaining no better than average, even cool further north in week 2. Very dry for Britain and N Europe week 1, nowhere quite as dry as this in week 2 but Britain and (separately) W Russia the drier areas. Still wet through the N Med and very wet in week 2 around the Adriatic and Turkey, with a little overspill in the direction of Belgium.

Met O forecast for the central S Coast at least for the next week showing NO change from 90% sunshine, midday 20+/-1 C, strong NE wind.

GFS Op - HP over N Britain and E/NE-lies for the S until about Fri 9th, when it retreats to mid Atlantic with lower pressure (1015mb) from France affecting the S by Mon 12th. After that the influence of the HP increases again, but not enough to prevent light N-lies, through to Fri 16th. The final frame (Sun 18th) shows twin HPs,, one in mid-Atlantic and one in Russia (the latter having been steadily growing for the previous week) and a trough extending S form Iceland to Ireland.

ECM - differs from GFS after Fri 9th when the HP moves NE to near Orkney with more of an E/SE influence

GEFS - continuing a degree or three above average temp to Mon 12th after which the mean declines to norm, perhaps skewed (esp in the N) by a rather cool op & control. Very dry except for a cluster of modest rain events Wed 14th, also in a few ens members before and (in the N & W rather more) after that.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 June 2023 07:08:21

Must be fantastic in the Scilly Isles. Pretty grim here in the S.E. ......

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Just to note that despite the name, Scilly Dave is reporting from Somerset where he now lives.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
02 June 2023 08:40:13
That anticyclone is just refusing to budge isn't it? A few days ago it looked as if it was going to start shifting south east and weakening. Now, if anything it is likely to retrogress in the longer term, and to move only slowly in the shorter term. This results in the north-easterly flow persisting and so the current pattern looks set to hold for a week at least. Subtle differences in North Sea cloud and wind direction will make the difference between cold/overcast and mild/sunny. West continues to be best for some time to come.

One point to note is that, in this set up, you can ignore 850Hpa temperatures because surface level temperatures are dominant. The current London 850 temp is at a peak which might not be exceeded for 3 weeks (if you take the GEFS means) but those plagued by the cloud and wind will tell you it feels more like March out there.  
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
scillydave
02 June 2023 08:52:41

Just to note that despite the name, Scilly Dave is reporting from Somerset where he now lives.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Sadly yes, i no longer live on the islands. Friends down there do report a fantastic period of weather though. Here's a webcam from my old home island of St Martins 
https://www.stmartinsscilly.co.uk/webcams--videos.html 
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
+1
Russwirral
02 June 2023 10:34:15


looking at the charts this morning and mid June and STILL seeing -5*C uppers into the british isles.  Quite rare that, potentially a bit of snow for the highest mountains overnight, with frost probably likely in the valleys

A cooler spring and start to Summer than I remember.  Albeit very sunny where I live - countering that cool air.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
02 June 2023 15:37:29

Must be fantastic in the Scilly Isles. Pretty grim here in the S.E. from the start of Spring really. Firstly wet and cold and now bone dry, always cloudy am with a bone chilling easterly wind. It does creep up to 19-20C pm for a while before the cloud rolls back in late afternoon though. Bad growing weather, 3 weeks without rain in a very dry strong wind. Can't remember the same HP staying in the identical location for so long in May and June before and no sign of it altering in  the models for the next couple of weeks, at least.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Hear hear.  It's the chilly, nagging, blustery, incessant NE wind that I can't wait to see the end of. It doesn't even drop much overnight, and as soon as the sun gets close to the horizon (if it's shining at all) it gets too chilly to stay in the garden.  But before I turn this into the summer (!!) moaning thread, the GEFS is pretty well flatlining at the same conditions for the next 10 days. Aaargh!
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
Retron
02 June 2023 15:57:34

Must be fantastic in the Scilly Isles. Pretty grim here in the S.E. from the start of Spring really. Firstly wet and cold and now bone dry, always cloudy am with a bone chilling easterly wind. It does creep up to 19-20C pm for a while before the cloud rolls back in late afternoon though. Bad growing weather, 3 weeks without rain in a very dry strong wind. Can't remember the same HP staying in the identical location for so long in May and June before and no sign of it altering in  the models for the next couple of weeks, at least.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Not grim at all in this part of the SE - the sun's been shining most of the day, but the wind from the sea has kept it pleasantly cool.

The bit about bad growing conditions is partially true, due to the lack of rain. Aside from that though everything's shooting up just as it usually does this time of year... the "wild" bits of my garden now look like mini jungles!

It is unusual to see such a prolonged spell of NE'lies, though (especially as we're in the typical "European Monsoon" weeks, where you would expect more mobility than usual, with low pressure and rain being on the menu). I can't help but think what a smashing wintry scene this would have generated back in say late January, but I can't complain... every day like this is a day where it's not getting uncomfortably warm, and a day closer to the end of my least favourite season (summer).

It'll be interesting to see what the next pattern involves. You would suspect a switch to wetter conditions (as it can't get any drier!) - warm, muggy and wet perhaps?
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
02 June 2023 19:14:42
Looks like a genuinely hot ECM tonight.  It drifts the high east so we pick up a sultry south easterly. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 June 2023 06:18:18

Looks like a genuinely hot ECM tonight.  It drifts the high east so we pick up a sultry south easterly. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


BBC Radio 4 forecast hinting at this, too.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Retron
03 June 2023 06:22:59

Looks like a genuinely hot ECM tonight.  It drifts the high east so we pick up a sultry south easterly. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


The SE'ly scenario isn't supported by its ensembles (like GEFS, they're majority NE'ly right out to 15 days), but there are signs of a warmer, more humid waft next weekend. Both GEFS/EPS have temperatures into the low 20s here, which with an onshore NE'ly persisting would suggest a warm airmass is involved...

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
03 June 2023 07:04:18

The SE'ly scenario isn't supported by its ensembles (like GEFS, they're majority NE'ly right out to 15 days), but there are signs of a warmer, more humid waft next weekend. Both GEFS/EPS have temperatures into the low 20s here, which with an onshore NE'ly persisting would suggest a warm airmass is involved...

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Seems to be a growing theme on the Ops now . Seriously warm ECM this morning.  15c 850s making an appearance. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 June 2023 07:06:00
WX charts still unstable. In the west, the heat over Spain and France in week 1 is now shown as making it north to cover all of Britain (exc very far north) in week 2 while in the east the cool patch over Finland & W Russia not only persists but now shown in week 2 as moving south to Romania. In week 1 there is a very dry area for countries around the N Sea in week 1, persisting but becoming fragmented in week 2, with rain for most other areas in Europe. 

GFS Op - HP near NW Scotland to start with with E/NE-lies continuing, drifting a little eastwards by Fri 9th thus switching winds into the SE before resuming its position to the NW Wed 14th. Then it declines to become no more than a col Mon 19th between LPs in mid Atlantic (looking as if it may move closer) and the N Baltic. 

ECM - similar to GFS this week but then a more definite movement of HP eastwards, situated over Sweden Mon 12th with winds definitely from the S, even bringing up shallow LPs from France in the flow. The ens temps marginally higher than GFS around 11th, say 6-7C above norm, but much less agreement on a breakdown after that, esp for the north.

GEFS - temps rising gradually to 4-5C above norm around Sun 11th then with less ens agreement dropping back to norm Mon 19th with a few notably cold outliers esp in the N & E. Some chances of rain after Sun 11th, greater in the W. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 June 2023 07:06:01
WX charts still unstable. In the west, the heat over Spain and France in week 1 is now shown as making it north to cover all of Britain (exc very far north) in week 2 while in the east the cool patch over Finland & W Russia not only persists but now shown in week 2 as moving south to Romania. In week 1 there is a very dry area for countries around the N Sea in week 1, persisting but becoming fragmented in week 2, with rain for most other areas in Europe. 

GFS Op - HP near NW Scotland to start with with E/NE-lies continuing, drifting a little eastwards by Fri 9th thus switching winds into the SE before resuming its position to the NW Wed 14th. Then it declines to become no more than a col Mon 19th between LPs in mid Atlantic (looking as if it may move closer) and the N Baltic. 

ECM - similar to GFS this week but then a more definite movement of HP eastwards, situated over Sweden Mon 12th with winds definitely from the S, even bringing up shallow LPs from France in the flow. The ens temps marginally higher than GFS around 11th, say 6-7C above norm, but much less agreement on a breakdown after that, esp for the north.

GEFS - temps rising gradually to 4-5C above norm around Sun 11th then with less ens agreement dropping back to norm Mon 19th with a few notably cold outliers esp in the N & E. Some chances of rain after Sun 11th, greater in the W. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
03 June 2023 11:16:36
GFS 6z continues the theme of a warm up late next week with the high drifting east allowing a south easterly wind. It has 30c for the 12th and 29c for the 13th. The 13th is the only Summer day never to get to 30c. Could this be the year?
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
03 June 2023 13:10:06

Seems to be a growing theme on the Ops now . Seriously warm ECM this morning.  15c 850s making an appearance. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


It'll be interesting to see whether the ops are going off on one or not... it's far from the first time that the ensembles, both GFS and ECM, show a strong NE'ly picture (out to day 10 and beyond), but the op doesn't.

If there's to be a SE'ly "plume", it'll pass over Kent first, but as you can see the ensembles really aren't keen on anything south of east - just look at those wind roses!

You can get a chart for your area by clicking on this map - mine (north Kent) is below.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=337&y=147&run=6&runpara=0&type=4&ext=1 

The ECM ensembles paint a similar picture, by far the most likely direction is NE through next weekend and beyond:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202306030000&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=51.3973&lon=0.921564&station_name=Leysdown-on-Sea 

The interesting thing there is the uplift in temperatures... getting a median of 26C (on Sunday) with a wind off the sea is quite something.

You can plot charts for other areas by using my ECM link and typing in a location on the left of the webpage.
Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
03 June 2023 20:58:32
iPhone app is sniffing the wind of change with 28C for my area by next weekend. We shall see…
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
scillydave
03 June 2023 22:11:40
The seesaw between very wet and very dry is quite something in this neck of the woods. We'll be approaching 5 weeks straight without rain if the latest model output verifies - quite unusual here. I'd also love to see the sunshine stats for this period - day after day of unbroken sunshine from dawn till dusk.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 June 2023 07:03:44
WX temp charts showing an east-west split. Hot weather spreading up from Spain into France and by week 2, Germany; Britain especially England getting a fair share of this by week 2. At the same time cooler from Finland down to Romania with Russia near the Urals becoming quite cold. Very dry over N Sea and Baltic week 1, rain elsewhere generally in week 1, but a change in week 2, with rain at hand in Scotland and Norway, damp more generally in NW Europe. Rain still in the Alps but decreasing but transferring eastwards with deluges around the Black Sea.

GFS Op - HP continues over Scotland (but only 1025mb, not so intense) until Friday when it withdraws to the NE as LP approaches the SW - not that close, but enough to switch winds into the S and bring up shallow secondary LP from France. By Mon 12th the main LP is in mid-Atlantic, a shallow LP 1015mb is over Belgium, and HP is well to the east at St Petersburg 1030mb. The LP then moves NE and through to Thu 20th the 'normal' summer pattern develops with LP near Iceland, the Azores high poking a ridge into England, and a westerly regime for Britain as a whole.

ECM - treats the HP differently, keeping it stronger so still dominant on Friday with the Atlantic LP correspondingly weaker, and winds more SE-ly than S-ly. By Wed 14th this model looks quite different to GFS with the HP having transferred to Iceland, the Atlantic LP down near the Azores, and England at least under the influence of continental LP stretching up from Italy (and the NE-lies are back!)

GEFS - steadily becoming very warm by Mon 12th, then mean dropping back slowly to norm (though op run is still a very warm outlier Tue 18th  at least in the S , and conversely the control is a cold outlier more widely). Chances of rain in most places from Sun 11th onwards (though BBC suggesting some heavy showers in the S/SW a day or two earlier), more general and heavier rain in the NW from this date. (Norwich has one ens member with a monster deluge on Sun 11th!)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Bolty
04 June 2023 11:05:49
A real Flaming June showing on the 6Z, as next weekend's Spanish plume quickly gives way to the Azores High moving north by the end of the following working week.

Some thundery potential bringing convection, before a return to warmer high pressure. Looks like a great start to summer.
UserPostedImage UserPostedImage
 
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Jiries
05 June 2023 06:53:22

A real Flaming June showing on the 6Z, as next weekend's Spanish plume quickly gives way to the Azores High moving north by the end of the following working week.

Some thundery potential bringing convection, before a return to warmer high pressure. Looks like a great start to summer.
UserPostedImage UserPostedImage
 

Originally Posted by: Bolty 



That set up was like that in the 90s to 2006 with AZ Hp move in after a hot spell so great set up more sunshine with low 30s then low 20s days no stupid cloudy cold days like we seem to get recently every time after a single day heat spike rubbish.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 June 2023 07:04:03
WX charts start in week 1 with warm/hot weather from the W Med extending into NW Europe. This continues to push N-wards in week 2 on its western edge to encompass all of Britain. W Russia is cool in week 1 but warming slowly; and there are patches of cooler weather persisting in Czechia, Romania and Turkey. Dry in week 1 from Britain to Baltic; in week 2 from Spain to N Sea though perhaps some convective activity over the British Isles; the area through the N Med, Pyrenees - Adriatic - Black Sea, continues (still!) to be the wettest part of Europe.

GFS Op - HP near Scotland moving NE-wards to Norway by Sat 10th, switching the winds from NE-ly to SE-ly thus probably warmer. Then for the following week Britain under slack LP originating both from mid-Atlantic (mostly early on) and from the Continent (mostly later). By Sun 18th HP re-asserts itself as a ridge from the Azores to N Norway, not lasting, and as so often this summer splitting into two centres at the ends of this range leaving Britain under a col by Wed 21st. Yesterday's suggestion of a zonal spell has gone.

ECM - similar to GFS but the HP moves nearer to  Iceland than Norway, and then next week's LP is more influenced by that from the Continent than from the Atlantic.

GEFS - temps rising to a maximum of about 6C above norm Sun 11th (a day or two later in Scotland) with good ens agreement, then most ens members accompanying the mean back to just above norm by Wed 21st but with increasing uncertainty. Some rain in many ens members from Sun 11th, less in the E but there are some big totals in the odd run there.

Jet steam running irregularly but for the next ten days well to the S, variously as far south as the Canaries and S Spain, then on into the Mediterranean; after that developing a new streak over N Greenland.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
Retron
05 June 2023 16:38:34
I'm loving the GFS 12z today - at least in the medium term. 12C highs and rain in mid-June down here? Yes please! 😍

Fat chance of that happening, though. This weekend's muggy fest is much more likely, of course! Beyond that is still very much up for grabs, whether it's a return to stronger NE'lies again or a switch to a warmer, wetter SW'ly flow remains to be seen.
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Matty H
05 June 2023 19:13:02

I'm loving the GFS 12z today - at least in the medium term. 12C highs and rain in mid-June down here? Yes please! 😍

Fat chance of that happening, though. This weekend's muggy fest is much more likely, of course! Beyond that is still very much up for grabs, whether it's a return to stronger NE'lies again or a switch to a warmer, wetter SW'ly flow remains to be seen.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



You truly are a miserable git 🤣🤣🤣

Fretting about everything in the world and wishing it rained every day. Christ. 

Personally I’m hoping for a repeat of last summer - just hotter. Been a decent average-feeling spring. The last couple of weeks have been lovely

The outlook remains decent enough. Plenty to hold on to here in the opening days of Summer. 6 months of potentially decent weather ahead. Maybe more. We were in tee shirts and shorts in November last year 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+2
Retron
06 June 2023 03:32:05

You truly are a miserable git 🤣🤣🤣

Fretting about everything in the world and wishing it rained every day. Christ. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


As you yourself said the other day, Matty, "Once a bully, always a bully". You would know that very well, of course, despite the emojis.

One of the things bullies do is exaggerate things. I don't want it to rain every day, but what I do want to see is average rainfall - spaced over a month, not the year. That means several days a month with rain, which surely isn't much to ask of a maritime nation such as ours.
I also don't want to have to spend more nights in a hotel because it's simply uninhabitable at home - as was the case last year when we had that 40C day. Beats me why anybody would think that was a good thing, but hey-ho.

 
Leysdown, north Kent
+1

Remove ads from site

Ads